Russian Subcritical Nuclear Testing
The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was adopted at the 50th session of the UN General Assembly on September 10, 1996. The Russian government joined the general moratorium on nuclear weapons testing in October 1992. Since then, Russian officials have repeatedly reiterated their intention to continue a unilateral moratorium on further nuclear tests until the CTBT enters into force, provided that other nuclear powers will also refrain from nuclear tests. Russia ratified it in 2000. For the treaty to enter into force, it must be ratified by eight more states possessing nuclear technologies, including Israel, Iran, Egypt and the United States.
A subcritical explosion involves the detonation of explosives around a radioactive material without reaching a critical mass and initiating a chain reaction. During the experiment, the behavior of plutonium under the influence of a large amount of explosives is studied.
The Russian military stopped using the former Soviet Semipalatinsk training ground in Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Like the United States, Russia continues to carry out “subcritical” explosions at the Central military training ground in the area of the large Arctic island of Novaya Zemlya. These experiments do not lead to a stable nuclear chain reaction and, therefore, do not produce nuclear explosions. In addition to conducting experiments on Novaya Zemlya, the Department of Defense uses advanced computational methods to model nuclear explosions.
Sub-critical hydrodynamic experiments with separate elements of nuclear ordnance are currently conducted at the Novaya Zemlya testing range. At least four or six such studies are conducted on Novaya Zemlya. These tests allow evaluation of criteria under which it is possible to store, transport and use nuclear ordnance safely.
Russia never announced the termination of such experiments. Moreover, in September 2010, Vladimir Verkhovtsev, who was then the head of the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, said that non-nuclear explosive experiments were being conducted in the country. "In the absence of full-scale nuclear tests, non-nuclear explosive experiments that are not accompanied by the release of nuclear energy are a mandatory tool for monitoring the operability, reliability and safety of nuclear charges," said Verkhovtsev, noting that such tests are carried out jointly by the Russian Ministry of Defense and Rosatom State Corporation at the Central training ground on Novaya Zemlya. As of 2012, the last known subcritical tests on Novaya Zemlya took place in 1998 and 2000. According to The New York Times in March 2001, Russia over the past five years may have violated a moratorium on nuclear explosions several times while testing new weapons on Novaya Zemlya Island. Officially, these tests, according to the newspaper, were declared nuclear-free by the Russian military. According to Nikolai Voloshin, the head of one of the departments of the Ministry of Atomic Energy of Russia, which the newspaper cites, "we do not violate the moratorium in any way." "We conduct the so-called subcritical tests, that is, tests that are considered non-nuclear, and comply with the nuclear test ban signed by our country together with other 160 states," Voloshin said.
Russia intends to resume non-nuclear explosive tests at the Central Nuclear Test Site on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago. Such experiments do not run counter to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and make it possible to evaluate the combat effectiveness of nuclear weapons as part of a program for extending their operational life. It is also likely that in order to accomplish this task, the Russian Ministry of Defense intends to strengthen its military presence on the archipelago in the Arctic Ocean.
Information about the plans for the military development of Novaya Zemlya and the nuclear test site on this archipelago began to be dosed out in the media from the beginning of September 2012. So, on September 4, Colonel Yuri Sych, head of the 12th Main Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense, responsible for nuclear technology and safety, announced that the Novaya Zemlya training ground was being prepared for nuclear explosive experiments and full-scale nuclear tests.
On 28 September 2012, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, citing Rosatom State Corporation, wrote that non-nuclear explosive experiments on Novaya Zemlya would be resumed. The same information on October 4, also with reference to a source in Rosatom, was confirmed by Jane's agency. Against this background, the message about the intention of the Russian Ministry of Defense to strengthen its military presence on the archipelago received an additional logical explanation.
Non-nuclear explosive tests on Novaya Zemlya will be resumed at the proving ground in the Matochkin Shar Strait, which separates the northern New Zealand island from the southern. This strait has a depth of about 12 meters, a width of 600 meters, anchorage, and also high, often steep banks. Such a training ground is considered the best place for conducting non-nuclear experiments.
Julian E. Barnes and William J. Broad reported May 29, 2019 that "The Trump administration believes Russia has restarted very low-yield nuclear tests, officials said on Wednesday in a finding that could be used to renew in earnest the arms race between Moscow and Washington. But the significance of the statements by the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency and a senior National Security Council official was immediately debated by nuclear weapons experts." “The United States believes that Russia probably is not adhering to the nuclear testing moratorium in a manner consistent with the zero-yield standard,” said Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, during a 29 May 2019 forum on arms control at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank. “Our understanding of nuclear weapon development leads us to believe Russia’s testing activities would help it improve its nuclear weapon capabilities.”
“Our understanding of nuclear weapon development leads us to believe Russia’s testing activities would help it improve its nuclear weapon capabilities,” Ashley said. “The United States, by contrast, has forgone such benefits by upholding a zero-yield standard.” The Defense Intelligence Agency subsequently on June 13 issueda stronger statement. It said that “the U.S. government, including the Intelligence Community, has assessed that Russia has conducted nuclear weapons tests that have created a nuclear yield.”
Before Ashley’s May 2019 statement, the Wall Street Journal reported that, according to new estimates by US intelligence, Russia “probably” tested nuclear weapons with very low power in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago. It was not clear whether the Intelligence Agency’s statements are based on new intelligence or on rethinking previously received information.
On June 13, 2019 a Defense Intelligence Agency statement responds to questions we have received about remarks DIA Director Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashley, Jr., made at a Hudson Institute event May 29, 2019: "The U.S. government, including the Intelligence Community, has assessed that Russia has conducted nuclear weapons tests that have created nuclear yield. Regarding China, the information raised at the Hudson Institute, coupled with China's lack of transparency on their nuclear testing activities, naturally raise questions about those activities in relation to the "zero yield" nuclear weapons testing moratorium adhered to by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. These are actions that the U.S. government characterizes as inconsistent with the commitments undertaken by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France." DIA did not specify any details about the alleged tests and did not provide evidence that they were conducted.
Meanwhile, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) said on the same day that they could not confirm the statement by the US Department of Defense, which suspects Russia of secretly conducting nuclear tests.
The Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security called this statement unfounded. “Russia did not violate any moratorium, did not experience anything. We always abide by everything that applies to international affairs, which is why this is an unfounded accusation, ”said committee member Franz Klintsevich to RBC.
“We need to read the agreement on the prohibition of testing nuclear weapons, there is not a word about subcritical testing, that is, before the launch of the chain reaction and the formation of the nuclear explosion itself. We are modernizing the corresponding weapons systems, conducting subcritical tests to confirm their operability. But by doing so, we are in no way violating the nuclear test ban treaty, ”Viktor Murakhovsky, editor-in-chief of Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, explained to RBC.
Russia strongly rejects Washington's allegations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called them "delusional." “We consider statements in the United States about the likely conduct of nuclear tests of ultra-low power by Russia as a flagrant provocation. Such accusations are absolutely groundless and aimed at trying to again denigrate our country, ”he said.
New accusations were made the day after Deputy Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Andrea Thompson met in Prague with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov to discuss arms control. The meeting did not lead to any significant agreements. After the meeting, Thompson tweeted that she raised a number of issues on which the US would like to engage in a more constructive dialogue with Russia.
Ryabkov, on the other hand, emphasized the unacceptability of Washington’s accusations of nuclear testing and violation of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty of 1996 (CTBT), which prohibits nuclear explosions. “We said that we act in full and absolute accordance with the treaty ratified by Moscow and in full accordance with our unilateral moratorium on nuclear tests,” RIA Novosti quoted Ryabkov as saying.
The April 2020 U.S. Department of State EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF FINDINGS On ADHERENCE TO AND COMPLIANCE WITH ARMS CONTROL, NON PROLIFERATION, AND DISARMAMENT AGREEMENTS AND COMMITMENTS reported that "The United States assesses that Russia has conducted nuclear weapons-related experiments that have created nuclear yield. The United States does not know how many, if any, supercritical or self-sustaining nuclear experiments Russia conducted in 2019. Russia may be testing in a manner that releases nuclear energy from an explosive canister, which raises compliance concerns with Russia’s TTBT notification obligation. Russian intent to carry out at its test site an underground nuclear weapons related experiment that is supercritical (creates a self-sustaining chain reaction) and that is anticipated to result in a release of nuclear energy through a physical breach of the explosive canister, regardless of the magnitude of its planned nuclear yield, would require an affirmative TTBT notification to the United States. A Russian nuclear test notification would alert the United States of the forthcoming opportunity to conduct specified verification activities in accordance with the TTBT Protocol."
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