China's Nuclear Stockpile

device	1st test	yield	yield [range]	type	delivery		peak	2018	2020
TOTAL							...	620	...
CHICOM-0 A2923	1964	25kt	22-35 kt	bomb		CHIC 1 / 2		0	0
CHICOM-1 KB-1	1966	20kt	12-20 kt [or 3 MT]	IRBM	DF-2	CSS-1	25	0
			?? kt	bomb	gravity bomb	Hong-6 (H-6)	30	--
			?? kt	bomb	gravity bomb	Qian-5 (Q-5)	30	--
			?? kt	..	atomic demolition munitions		50?
CHICOM-2 524-23	1967	3,000 kt	3 MT	bomb	gravity bomb	Hong-6 (H-6)
			1-3.3 MT	ICBM	DF-4	CSS-3		12
			1-3 MT	IRBM	DF-3A	CSS-2 Mod		40
			2-3 MT	IRBM	DF-3	CSS-2		0
			3 MT [or 12-20 kt]	IRBM	DF-2	CSS-1		0
CHICOM-3	1976	20kt	12-20 kt [or 3 MT]	IRBM	DF-2	CSS-1	25	0
			?? kt	bomb	gravity bomb	Hong-6 (H-6)	30	30
			?? kt	bomb	gravity bomb	Qian-5 (Q-5)	30	--
CHICOM-4	1976	4,000 kt	4 MT	ICBM	DF-5A	CSS-4 Mod 2		20
CHICOM-5 H639-23	1980	1,000 kt	?? kt	bomb	gravity bomb	Hong-6 (H-6)	30	--
			1 @ 1 MT	ICBM	DF-31	CSS-10		-
			1 @ 250-1000 kT	SLBM	JL-2			24
			1 @ 0.35 - 1.0 MT	ICBM	DF-41		tbd	-	?
CHICOM-6 O-27 / 119 ?	1987	250 kt	?? kt	bomb	gravity bomb	Qian-5 (Q-5)	30	30
			200-300 KT	SLBM	JL-1		12	0	0
			250 kt	MRBM	DF-21	CSS-5	80	0	0
			200-300 KT	MRBM	DF-21C	CSS-5 Mod 3		48
			50-350 KT	SRBM	DF-15	CSS-6		96
			350 KT	SRBM	DF-11A	CSS-7 Mod 2		108
			250 kt	ICBM	DF-31	CSS-10		15
			3 MIRV @ 250 kt	SLBM	JL-3		tbd	0	tbd
CHICOM-7	1988	1-5 kt	1-20 kt	AFP	W90 203mm SPG			??
				ADM		..	??	??	??
CHICOM-8	1993	100 kt	3 x 100 kt	ICBM	DF-31A	CSS-10 Mod 2		24
			3 or 4 MIRV @ 90 kt	SLBM	JL-2			180
			3-6 @ 50-100 KT	ICBM	DF-41		tbd	0	?
			90 kt	LACM	DH-10			?	54 ?
W88	none		400 kt	ICBM?	none	-	0	0	0

The composition and size of China's nuclear stockpile is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, with Chinese characteristics. One bounding factor is the history of China's nuclear weapons tests. This later data set is rather fuzzy, and surely some tests could be either low-yield tactical weapons, or low yield fission primaries for a two stage device, or both at the same time, or fizzles. Some tests might have had yields substantially in excess of or less than the design yield of the subsequently deployed weapon. And so forth.

One source of insight are the various delivery systems believed to carry nuclear weapons. There are fairly standard assessments of the number and types of warheads carried on China's strategic missiles. There are a number of the individual estimates of the numbers of deployed delivery systems and the weapons attributed to them, including the yields of these weapons. These independent estimates of specifications are presumably based on a variety of facators [throw weight, etc] not directly constrained by a ouija board contemplation of the Chinese testing history.

Another bounding data set are the estimates of the inventory of fissile materials - highly enriched uranium and bomb grade plutonium - that is available to make bombs. And yet a fourth data set are the various bomb shapes that have been exhibited in China in recent years.

The can be no fixed definition of exactly what constitutes a "nuclear weapon", particularly one with Chinese characteristics. In the history of the American nuclear stockpile, on finds examples of fundamentally similar nuclear weapons with dissimilar designations, and a blanket designation [the ubiquitous B61] covering a multitude of configurations and yields. Taking the reasonably well characterized French and British stockpiles, it may be assumed that China has fielded at least half a dozen discrete nuclear weapon designs, but probably not as many as a dozen.

DIA 1984
system	1984	1989
CSS-1	25	9
CSS-2	110	120
CSS-3	8	31
CSS-4	2	9
SLBM	0	24
MR/IRBM F/O	0	17
Bombs	165	200
ADM	50	50
ASM	0	130
TOTAL	360	590

The US Defense Intelligence Agency provided three estimates of the Chinese stockpile in 1984, variously estimating the total at "between 150 and 160 warheads", "between 225 and 300 nuclear warheads" and 360 warheads [your tax dollars at work]. The DIA "Handbook of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army" of 1984 stated that this arsenal included “fission warheads ranging from 20 to 40 kilotons and thermonuclear warheads ranging from 3 to 5 megatons.” DIA also suggested that China had managed to build a nuclear Triad where the “warheads can be delivered by both land- and sea-based missiles, as well as by conventional bomber aircraft.”

The US Defense Intelligence Agency stated in 1984 that "Between 150 and 160 warheads are estimated to be in the PRC nuclear stockpile. The limit of the number of warheads is not restricted by nuclear materials production, but on what the Chinese perceive their needs to be. The estimate of the number of warheads in the Chinese nuclear inventory is based on the delivery systems projections. No direct evidence exists on the actual size of China's present nuclear stockpile; however, indirect evidence derived from Chinese nuclear tests and estimates of the characteristics of deployed delivery systems give some basis for estimating types, yields, and approximate numbers." But another 1984 DIA estimate provided a projection for 1989 of the composition of the stockpile, which totalled nearly 600 weapons.

According to Jane's Special Report of 1989, China's nuclear weapon inventory was believed to consiste of 1,455 strategic and tactical devices, with yields ranging from 2 kt to 5 MT. The was reported to include 354 strategic systems carrying about 930 warheads, and at least 150 land and sea based tactical missiles, along with some 375 deployable munitions. Some reports claim that T-5 unguided rockets, with a range of about 100 km, were fitted with nuclear warheads. The M-9 ballistic missile, with a range of 600km, was also believed to be equiped with a nuclear warhead.

Declassified US documents from the 1990s placed classified estimates of the total stockpile, including a small stockpile of aircraft-delivered gravity bombs, between 200 and 250 warheads. In July 1999, DIA estimated the size of the Chinese nuclear weapons inventory to be roughly 155 warheads.