China's Nuclear Stockpile
|device||1st test||yield||yield [range]||type||delivery||peak||2018||2020|
|1964||25kt||22-35 kt||bomb||CHIC 1 / 2||0||0|
|1966||20kt||12-20 kt [or 3 MT]||IRBM||DF-2||CSS-1||25||0|
|?? kt||bomb||gravity bomb||Hong-6 (H-6)||30||--|
|?? kt||bomb||gravity bomb||Qian-5 (Q-5)||30||--|
|?? kt||..||atomic demolition munitions||50?|
|1967||3,000 kt||3 MT||bomb||gravity bomb||Hong-6 (H-6)|
|1-3 MT||IRBM||DF-3A||CSS-2 Mod||40|
|3 MT [or 12-20 kt]||IRBM||DF-2||CSS-1||0|
|CHICOM-3||1976||20kt||12-20 kt [or 3 MT]||IRBM||DF-2||CSS-1||25||0|
|?? kt||bomb||gravity bomb||Hong-6 (H-6)||30||30|
|?? kt||bomb||gravity bomb||Qian-5 (Q-5)||30||--|
|CHICOM-4||1976||4,000 kt||4 MT||ICBM||DF-5A||CSS-4 Mod 2||20|
|1980||1,000 kt||?? kt||bomb||gravity bomb||Hong-6 (H-6)||30||--|
|1 @ 1 MT||ICBM||DF-31||CSS-10||-|
|1 @ 250-1000 kT||SLBM||JL-2||24|
|1 @ 0.35 - 1.0 MT||ICBM||DF-41||tbd||-||?|
O-27 / 119 ?
|1987||250 kt||?? kt||bomb||gravity bomb||Qian-5 (Q-5)||30||30|
|200-300 KT||MRBM||DF-21C||CSS-5 Mod 3||48|
|350 KT||SRBM||DF-11A||CSS-7 Mod 2||108|
|3 MIRV @ 250 kt||SLBM||JL-3||tbd||0||tbd|
|CHICOM-7||1993||100 kt||3 x 100 kt||ICBM||DF-31A||CSS-10 Mod 2||24|
|3 or 4 MIRV @ 90 kt||SLBM||JL-2||180|
|3-6 @ 50-100 KT||ICBM||DF-41||tbd||0||?|
|90 kt||LACM||DH-10||?||54 ?|
The composition and size of China's nuclear stockpile is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, with Chinese characteristics. One bounding factor is the history of China's nuclear weapons tests. This later data set is rather fuzzy, and surely some tests could be either low-yield tactical weapons, or low yield fission primaries for a two stage device, or both at the same time, or fizzles. Some tests might have had yields substantially in excess of or less than the design yield of the subsequently deployed weapon. And so forth.
One source of insight are the various delivery systems believed to carry nuclear weapons. There are fairly standard assessments of the number and types of warheads carried on China's strategic missiles. There are a number of the individual estimates of the numbers of deployed delivery systems and the weapons attributed to them, including the yields of these weapons. These independent estimates of specifications are presumably based on a variety of facators [throw weight, etc] not directly constrained by a ouija board contemplation of the Chinese testing history.
Another bounding data set are the estimates of the inventory of fissile materials - highly enriched uranium and bomb grade plutonium - that is available to make bombs. And yet a fourth data set are the various bomb shapes that have been exhibited in China in recent years.
The can be no fixed definition of exactly what constitutes a "nuclear weapon", particularly one with Chinese characteristics. In the history of the American nuclear stockpile, on finds examples of fundamentally similar nuclear weapons with dissimilar designations, and a blanket designation [the ubiquitous B61] covering a multitude of configurations and yields. Taking the reasonably well characterized French and British stockpiles, it may be assumed that China has fielded at least half a dozen discrete nuclear weapon designs, but probably not as many as a dozen.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency stated in 1984 that "Between 150 and 160 warheads are estimated to be in the PRC nuclear stockpile. The limit of the number of warheads is not restricted by nuclear materials production, but on what the Chinese perceive their needs to be. The estimate of the number of warheads in the Chinese nuclear inventory is based on the delivery systems projections. No direct evidence exists on the actual size of China's present nuclear stockpile; however, indirect evidence derived from Chinese nuclear tests and estimates of the characteristics of deployed delivery systems give some basis for estimating types, yields, and approximate numbers." But another 1984 DIA estimate provided a projection for 1989 of the composition of the stockpile, which totalled nearly 600 weapons.
According to Jane's Special Report of 1989, China's nuclear weapon inventory was believed to consiste of 1,455 strategic and tactical devices, with yields ranging from 2 kt to 5 MT. The was reported to include 354 strategic systems carrying about 930 warheads, and at least 150 land and sea based tactical missiles, along with some 375 deployable munitions. Some reports claim that T-5 unguided rockets, with a range of about 100 km, were fitted with nuclear warheads. The M-9 ballistic missile, with a range of 600km, was also believed to be equiped with a nuclear warhead.
Declassified US documents from the 1990s placed classified estimates of the total stockpile, including a small stockpile of aircraft-delivered gravity bombs, between 200 and 250 warheads. In July 1999, DIA estimated the size of the Chinese nuclear weapons inventory to be roughly 155 warheads.
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