Around the turn of the century the US Department of Defense expected the DF-41 to be deployed by the PRC between 2005 and 2010. These years came and went with no DF-41, leading many to conclude the program had been abandoned. The Bill Gertz [what would we do without him?] reported on August 15, 2012 the first flight test of the DF-41 road-mobile ICBM occurred 24 July 2012.
The missile, once thought to be designated CSS-X-10, a designation now applied to the DF-31, was referenced briefly in the Pentagon’s 2011 annual report on the Chinese military [but omitted from the 2012 abbreviated report to Congress]. In addition to the DF-31 and DF-31A, “China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV)," the Pentagon report said in 2011. And in 2013 DOD reported "China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV)."
The strategic development of China is the focus of the world's leading powers, especially the United States. The lack of reliable information leads to a lot of rumors and different interpretations. It seems that China is not averse to adding fuel to the fire, from time to time by publishing the web for pictures of strategic missiles, the authenticity of which is controversial among experts. Three photos widely disseminated on the Internet are said to show a missile said to be China’s intercontinental ballistic missile DF-41. But on closer examination, the "transporter erector launcher" looks more like just a transporter, since it lacks the hydraulics needed to erect the cannister for launch, and the missile cannister looks suspiciously like a petroleum cracking tower.
The three-stage solid-fuel DF-41 is believed to be larger than the DF-31 missile, and has a range of up to 12,000 kilometers. While no information has been published concerning the configuration of this missile, the most straightforward path towards its development would be the addition of an enlarged third stage to the DF-31 ICBM. The larger third stage and longer range of the DF-41 wass made possible by the fact that, unlike the DF-31, the size of the DF-41 is not constrained by the requirement that it be fitted into a submarine launch tube. The DF-41 strategic weapons system was projected to have a mobile launch capability providing greatly improved survivability compared with previous Chinese intercontinental missiles. It was anticipated that the DF-41 will be delivered to the 2d Artillery around the year 2010.
No DF-41 / CSS-X-10 was expected to be displayed in the October 1st military parade of the PRC's 60th anniversary since it is still in protracted research and development to the disappointment of many. The DF-41 is believed to be a MIRV armed 10,000 – 12,000 kilometer range ICBM.
As of March 2001 the US Defense Intelligence Agency reported that China had several new strategic missile systems are under development, including two new road-mobile solid-propellant ICBMs. The 8,000 km DF-31 was successfully flight- tested in 1999 and 2000, and tests of the other longer-range mobile ICBM were anticipated within next several years.
In the absence of flight testing, the final operational configuration of this solid fueled missile remained uncertain, particularly with respect to the length of the third stage. However, this derivative of the DF-31 would be unlikely to have a throwweight in excess of 1000 kgs, and most estimates are in the range of 800 kg. Some estimates anticipate that, as with previous Chinese ICBMs, the DF-41 will carry only a single warhead [with a 0.35 - 1.0 MT yield]. In any event, depending on the weapon's yield, it seems unlikely that China would be able to mount more than a few lower-yield [50-100 KT ?] RVs on this ICBM. The American Minuteman III has 3 RVs and a throwweight of 1100 kgs at 12,900 kms, while the MX Peacekeeper carries 10 RVs and has a throwweight of 3950 kgs at 11,000 kms. Both American missiles carry warheads with yields of a few hundred kilotons.
The first test came in 2012 from the Wuzhai Space and Missile Test Center.
China carried out a long-range missile flight test on 13 December 2014 using multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, according to US defense officials. The flight test of a new DF-41 missile, China’s longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile, marks the first test of multiple warhead capabilities for China. The missile test was first reported by the Washington Free Beacon Dec. 18. Defense officials said the DF-41 was launched from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Center, also known as Taiyuan, in central China. The missile landed in an impact zone in a remote region of western China.
PLA Sr. Col. Yang Yujun told reporters at a year-end news briefing: "China has the legitimate right to conduct scientific tests within its border and these scientific tests are not targeting any country or target. What needs to be pointed out is that China pursues a nuclear policy of self-defense and its policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons has not changed."
In December 2015 China tested a new rail-car-mounted long-range missile capable of hitting targets in the United States, according to American intelligence agencies monitoring the test. A canister ejection test for a DF-41 missile mounted on a rail launch platform was detected December 5 in western China, defense officials familiar with reports of the test told the Washington Free Beacon.
Beijing had been developing rail-based missile launchers since 1982, according to declassified CIA documents. The most recent test is a significant milestone for Chinese weapon developers, demonstrating that Beijing is moving forward with deploying the DF-41 on rail cars, in addition to road-mobile launchers, officials told the Free Beacon.
Military analysts say the mobile basing of missiles is designed to complicate preemptive attacks on nuclear forces. The train carrying the missiles includes missile launch cars, a command car, and other system support railcars, all disguised as passenger train cars. China is believed to have obtained rail-mobile missile technology from Ukraine, which, during the Soviet era, built the SS-24 rail-based ICBM, according to a report by Georgetown University’s Asian Arms Control Project.
China also is developing an extensive rail and tunnel system in central China for the missile train, according to the report. Phillip A. Karber, a defense expert who heads the Potomac Foundation, said his organization recently identified a DF-41 at a launch site at Taiyuan. "If that missile train hosts the DF-41 ICBM it means it will also have a MIRV potential," Karber told the Free Beacon. "The combination of high-speed mobility, launch cars disguised as civilian passenger trains, tunnel protection and secure reloading of missiles, coupled with multiple warheads, makes the system extremely hard to regulate or verify the number of systems."
On the rail mobile ICBM issue, US intelligience had not seen the Chinese pursue the rail option. They seemed to like the road option more, and their road infrastructure better suited them for mobility, for more mobile options. They are very concerned about the US ability to find and kill TELs so the roads give more ability to flush out and go to hide sites and get to launch locations.
China’s state-owned Global Times, on 23 January 2017, carried a report, which said the Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) missile would bring China “more respect." The missiles that are capable of carrying 10-12 nuclear warheads were deployed near the China-Russia border, according the report, which did not go into further detail. there has been no authoritative information on whether China has a Dongfeng-41 strategic missile brigade, how many such brigades it has and where they are deployed. Two days earlier, Pingguo Ribao, a Hong Kong-based publication reported about the deployment. News of a potential deployment leaked much earlier.
|Contractor||Academy of Rocket Motors Technology - ARMT|
|Operator||Second Artillery Corps|
|Deployment||Silo or mobile|
|Range (km)||10,000 - 12,000|
|Warheads||3 - 10 ?|
|Re-entry Vehicle Mass (kg)||800-1,000 [?]|
|Warhead Yield||1 @ 0.35 - 1.0 MT or
3-6 @ 50-100 KT
|CEP (meters)||700 - 800 ??|
|Launch Preparation Time||3-5 minutes|