At the battle of Stirling Bridge, 11 September 1297, the movie Braveheart has William Wallace provoking the English to battle, saying "Here are Scotland's terms. Lower your flags, and march straight back to England, stopping at every home to beg forgiveness for 100 years of theft, rape, and murder. Do that and your men shall live. Do it not, and every one of you will die today. ... Before we let you leave, your commander must cross that field, present himself before this army, put his head between his legs, and kiss his own ass."
Putin's Nuclear Crisis - October 2024
Threats about the use of nuclear weapons from the Kremlin have been heard since the beginning of the full-scale war. This is cynically called “protection of Russian interests.”
Moscow would trigger a “contingency plan” outlined by President Vladimir Putin in the event that Ukraine receives permission to use Western-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned. Putin earlier said that any such strikes would be treated by Moscow as a direct attack by the countries that provided the weapons. The diplomat was commenting on an upcoming meeting of Kiev’s foreign arms donors, which Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has been touting as “historic.” Moscow does not follow statements on the issue as it already has a response prepared, the foreign minister said 08 October 2024.
“As soon as this decision is taken [by the West to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles], if it is taken, we will learn that, and the contingency mentioned by Vladimir Putin will already be in action,” Lavrov told Russia’s Channel 1 broadcaster. Putin has warned that any such attack by Ukraine with Western-supplied long-range missiles would be treated by Moscow as being directly launched by NATO. He has suggested that Russia could arm enemies of the West with similar weapons in response. Moscow is currently updating its nuclear doctrine to include an attack by a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear one to the conditions which could trigger a nuclear retaliation from Russia.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said 29 October 2024 that the Russian Armed Forces have practiced launching a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike by a simulated enemy. “The tasks of delivering a massive nuclear strike by strategic offensive forces in response to an enemy nuclear strike have been worked out,” Belousov noted. The Russian Defense Ministry noted that the training of strategic nuclear deterrence forces was conducted under the leadership of Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces Vladimir Putin. During it, practical launches of ballistic and cruise missiles took place.
The Russian Defense Ministry reported that a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. The target was located at the Kura test site in Kamchatka. In addition, the crews of two submarines launched missiles. The crew of the nuclear-powered strategic missile submarine cruiser Novomoskovsk fired from the Barents Sea. The crew of the nuclear-powered submarine cruiser Knyaz Oleg launched missiles from the Sea of Okhotsk. The crews of Tu-95MS long-range aircraft also launched air-launched cruise missiles.
The practical launches were controlled from the Russian National Defense Control Center. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that the planned tasks were completed in full during the training. All missiles reached their targets and confirmed the specified characteristics.
The book "From Deterrence to Intimidation" has been published by the Molodaya Gvardiya publishing house. Its authors are well-known political scientists Dmitry Trenin, Sergei Karaganov and Admiral, former commander of the Pacific Fleet Sergei Avakyants. At the presentation of the book, the authors explained the deep reasons for its appearance and answered a number of questions. Special correspondent Vyacheslav Terekhov reports "It is noteworthy that on the cover of the book, in a circle on a bright red background, the source of the research used to write it is written: "Based on a report to the leadership of the Russian Federation." The work is positioned not just as another study, but as recommendations from well-known professionals to the country's leadership."
Karaganov: "Our doctrine ( Russia's nuclear doctrine - IF ) was monstrously outdated and even frivolous in the face of the looming threat of a third world war. For this reason, a year and a half ago we raised a major, targeted discussion.... At first they said that Russia would never use nuclear weapons, and, therefore, they could conduct intensive military actions against Russia without fear of a nuclear response. But after an article appeared warning that there would be a response, they began calling for avoiding escalation! It worked!"
Trenin: "Indeed, during the Cold War, when the foundations of the modern concept of deterrence were being betrayed, the current war, as a continuation of the Cold War by the Ukrainians, would have been impossible and even unthinkable. It would have immediately led to an exchange of nuclear strikes.... After the end of the Cold War, fundamental changes took place, and what could be called an informal nuclear taboo was established, with nuclear weapons being removed from the discussion of international security issues. As a result, strategic deterrence, not only nuclear but strategic deterrence in general, which was initially based on balance and fear during the Cold War, sagged. Or, as they said, on the balance of fear. A defiant peace led by the United States of America arrived. But when this peace inevitably began to crumble and be contested by other great powers, the strategic instability that we are experiencing now arrived....
"We have a coalition of over 50 states working against us. We are not talking about reviving some Cold War institutions, but we need a flexible coalition strategy to confront the enemy. The world will begin to live in conditions of what we call renewed strategic deterrence. ... Containment and intimidation are psychological categories, they are based not only on the presence of force potential, but also on the will, on the readiness to use this potential under certain conditions. The enemy is mistaken, and very seriously mistaken, if he takes the restraint of our leadership for a bluff. Russia's stakes on Ukraine are much higher than the stakes for the West....
"Therefore, it is necessary to dissuade the enemy, to deprive him of illusions, to lead him out of delusions, to break the escalation strategy of the West, giving rise to doubts about the safety of this strategy for the West itself. It is necessary to deprive the enemy of the feeling of impunity. Unfortunately, at the beginning of the special operation, such a feeling obviously arose in him, and to the end, in my opinion, it has not yet evaporated.
"It is necessary to outline the ladder of escalation: what steps, in what sequence, in what areas: diplomatic, political, military-technical, and finally, military, must be taken in order to stop this destructive escalation. The last means of deterrence are demonstration or limited nuclear strikes. There should be no doubt that under certain conditions Russia will be ready to use nuclear weapons. It is quite obvious that it is time to move from verbal deterrence to practical deterrence...."
Karaganov: "We must free our president and our military-political leadership from this stupid doctrine that we had. We must actively use nuclear deterrence and intimidation. And there is another problem, which is that our European neighbors have clearly gone crazy. They are getting into a third world war. This is inexplicable. In one generation, they automatically drove the whole world into the first and then the second world war. Therefore, we must stop Europe, which is the spawn of all the troubles of humanity."
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