Putin's Nuclear Crisis - February 2022
The Financial Times reported 05 February 2022 that "US military and intelligence officials believe that Russia is planning to hold a big nuclear weapons exercise this month as a warning to Nato not to intervene if President Vladimir Putin decides to invade Ukraine. General Mark Milley, chair of the joint chiefs, and Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, told lawmakers in the House of Representatives on Thursday that Putin was planning to start the exercises in mid-February, according to a Congressional aide with knowledge of the closed-door briefing. Russia generally holds its annual nuclear exercises — which involve testing intercontinental ballistic missiles from land, sea and air — in the fall. But the US believes Putin has decided to hold them earlier this year as a show of strength in the event that he orders his military to further invade Ukraine."
Russia's decision to postpone the nuclear triad exercises to the end of February - just in time for the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics - came as a complete surprise and a source of great concern to the US political elite. This opinion was expressed by the Israeli military expert and political scientist Yakov Kedmi on the air of the TV show "Evening with Vladimir Solovyov" on the channel "Russia-1" on 09 February 2022.
According to the expert, the coming year 2022 will be a period of new world development, but not everyone in the world is happy about it. In particular, the authorities of the United States of America do not want to put up with the upcoming changes. And they were not even enlightened by the recent joint speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who said that Moscow and Beijing intend to resist Washington's interference in the internal affairs of the states of Europe, the Far East and the Asia-Pacific region.
The main problem of the Americans, the expert explained, is the unwillingness to understand the simple truth, which is that the US hegemony on the planet is over. The United States of America will have to get used to listening to the opinions and interests of other members of the international community, whether they like it or not. At the same time, Washington participates in Moscow-initiated negotiations on security guarantees, realizing its weakness, but trying to hide it. That is why the Americans are making efforts to aggravate tensions around Ukraine, but they do not even realize that this Time Russia intends to insist on its own.
“And finally, someone in the White House noticed that it turns out that Putin postponed large-scale maneuvers of the nuclear triad to the end of February - the beginning of March. Just in time for the end of the Olympics. And why would it? This nuclear maneuver by Moscow instilled such fear in the American elites that they seriously thought about whether it was worth taking risks with Ukraine before a new stage of negotiations,” Kedmi explained.
In a joint statement issued 11 February 2022, a senior group of American, European, and Russian security experts warned that: “The tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO create the potential for a disastrous war that can and must be avoided through serious and deft diplomacy.” The experts are members of a 24-member group of leading nuclear arms control and risk reduction experts known as the Deep Cuts Commission. “Among other steps, NATO and Russia should pursue agreement on common sense arms control instruments to help move away from the brink of disaster and promote stability and security in Europe,” they write.
“NATO and Russia have advanced different ideas on conventional and nuclear arms control. Yet, the two draft agreements put forward by Moscow in December 2021 as well as the U.S. and NATO responses to these texts submitted in January 2022 indicate there is room for negotiations designed to resolve mutual security concerns,” the Commissioners note.
“Both sides have stated that they are ready to engage in talks on risk reduction and confidence-building concerning offensive and defensive missile deployments in Europe, transparency on conventional weapons and military exercises, as well as on conventional forces posture and arms control,” the Commissioners point out in their joint statement.
Among other steps, the Commission recommends negotiations on a balanced agreement between the United States and Russia on a verifiable moratorium on the deployment of intermediate-range missiles between the Atlantic and the Urals and an arrangement between NATO and Russia for reciprocal transparency visits to NATO’s Aegis Ashore sites in Romania and Poland and Russia’s 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile sites. US projections that 16 February 2022 could be the date of a Russian military campaign against Ukraine didn't materialize. International tensions remained high as the US said 150,000 Russian troops were massed to the north, south and east of Ukraine, and Western officials said a Russian invasion could still happen at any moment.
Yury Tavrovsky, head of the "Russian Dream-Chinese Dream" analytic center of the Izborsk Club, told the Global Times 16 February 2022, that having achieved an advantage in offensive weapons, primarily hypersonic missiles, Putin got the opportunity to talk to Biden on equal terms and not "blink first," adding that Russia has converted its military-technical achievements into geopolitical ones, and in the foreseeable future, the conversation with the West will be much tougher. Tavrovsky said the new level of strategic partnership demonstrated during the latest Xi-Putin meeting is a big step forward in curbing the arrogance of the West.
Russia's Defence Ministry announced 18 February 2022 it will conduct missile drills on 19 February 2022 under the supervision of President Vladimir Putin. It said that the exercise is designed to test the readiness of strategic deterrence, including nuclear forces. It will involve the Aerospace Forces, the Strategic Missile Forces, the Black Sea Fleet and the Northern Fleet. The ministry said ballistic and cruise missiles will be launched, and that President Putin will personally oversee the exercise. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the drills are transparent and should not be a cause for concern.
On 21 February 2022 Putin said "... the danger of a sudden strike against our country will increase many times over. Let me explain that US strategic planning documents contain the possibility of a so-called preemptive strike against enemy missile systems. And who is the main enemy for the US and NATO? We know that too. It’s Russia. In NATO documents, our country is officially and directly declared the main threat to North Atlantic security. And Ukraine will serve as a forward springboard for the strike. If our ancestors had heard about it, they probably would simply not have believed it. And today we don’t want to believe it, but it’s true."
February 23 was the Army Day of the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia changed this holiday to Defender of the Fatherland Day. To celebrate the Defender of the Fatherland Day, Putin delivered a video speech, emphasizing that a modern and efficient army and navy are the guarantee of Russia's national security and sovereignty, and the guarantee of the country's stable development and future.
"We will continue to strengthen the "Trinity" nuclear force. This year, the first batch of new heavy-duty missile "Sarmat" launchers will enter combat readiness. We will continue to mass-produce the "Dagger" airborne hypersonic missile, and will begin large-scale delivery of the "Zircon" sea-based hypersonic missile. With the "Borei-A" class "Emperor Alexander III" nuclear submarine joining the naval combat formation, the proportion of modern weapons and equipment of the maritime strategic nuclear force will reach 100%."
Western sanctions could be an “excellent reason for a final review” of Russia’s relations with the nations that have imposed the restrictions, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and former president, Dmitry Medvedev, said 26 February 2022. “Sanctions could be an excellent reason for the final review of all relations with those states that have introduced them. Including interruption of the dialogue on strategic stability,” Medvedev wrote. He added that in principle, it is possible “to renounce everything,” including the New START Treaty.
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