At the battle of Stirling Bridge, 11 September 1297, the movie Braveheart has William Wallace provoking the English to battle, saying "Here are Scotland's terms. Lower your flags, and march straight back to England, stopping at every home to beg forgiveness for 100 years of theft, rape, and murder. Do that and your men shall live. Do it not, and every one of you will die today. ... Before we let you leave, your commander must cross that field, present himself before this army, put his head between his legs, and kiss his own ass."
Putin's Nuclear Crisis - May 2024
Threats about the use of nuclear weapons from the Kremlin have been heard since the beginning of a full-scale war. This is cynically called “protection of Russian interests.”
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin does not dare to launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine because he fears losing power, money, and, most importantly, societal support, stated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 03 May 2024 during a meeting with lyceum school students, cadets, and teachers of the National Academy of the State Border Guard Service named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky. "When it comes to Russia's threats of nuclear catastrophe or nuclear strikes, these are sick-minded individuals, that's a fact. So, to say definitively whether they are capable or incapable of this is impossible. Because with sick-minded individuals, it's difficult to say until the end," noted Zelensky. In his opinion, "despite this illness, these individuals cherish life very much, love themselves, are very afraid of losing power and money, and most importantly, losing societal support."
"All this, what I've listed: life, power, society, and the 'red line' that nuclear weapons cross with the whole world, this is a fact. Even those countries that balance between us and Russia and cannot decide, even these countries will turn away from Russia after a nuclear strike of any scale on any territory," the president said. Zelenskyy believes that people who are afraid of losing money, power, and their lives will never use nuclear weapons. "Otherwise, they will be eliminated. No matter how. They will all be eliminated, in my opinion," added the head of state.
A total Russian victory over Ukraine in which the entire country is defeated would be detrimental to European and NATO security, as it could allow Moscow to place missiles at the EU’s doorstep, French President Emmanuel Macron said 05 May 2024. In an interview with the French daily La Tribune, Macron, who has famously refused to rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine, once again advocated a policy of “strategic ambiguity” towards Russia, arguing that the key idea behind such an approach is to project strength while “not giving too many details.”
Describing Russia as “an adversary,” the French president stressed that establishing “a priori limits” would be interpreted as weakness. “We must remove all visibility from it, because that is what creates the ability to deter,” he argued. Macron further noted that Ukraine is crucial to France’s security because it is located only 1,500 kilometers from its borders. “If Russia wins, the next second, there is no longer any security possible in Romania, in Poland, in Lithuania and not in our country either. The capability and range of Russian ballistic missiles expose us all,” he said.
Moscow announced 06 May 2024 that it planned to test its ability to deploy tactical nuclear weapons. Russian Ministry of Defense stated : On the instructions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, in order to increase the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces to carry out combat missions, the General Staff has begun preparations for holding exercises in the near future with missile formations of the Southern Military District with the involvement of aviation, as well as the forces of the Navy. During the exercise, a set of activities will be carried out to practice the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. The exercise is aimed at maintaining the readiness of personnel and equipment of units for the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons to respond and in order to unconditionally ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Russian state in response to provocative statements and threats of individual Western officials against the Russian Federation."
It was the first time Russia has publicly announced drills involving tactical nuclear weapons, although its strategic nuclear forces regularly hold exercises. Russia’s upcoming exercises to test its tactical nuclear weapons should be viewed in light of the “belligerent statements” made by some Western officials and NATO’s “destabilizing actions,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said. The exercises, which were ordered by President Vladimir Putin, will be held in the near future, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The exercise will be conducted “in the near future” and was ordered by President Vladimir Putin, the ministry said. It said the training was ordered by President Vladimir Putin after “provocative statements and threats” by Western officials.
According to the Foreign Ministry, the move was a response to the continued “power politics” pursued by the US and its allies against Russia. Washington and Kiev’s other backers openly declare their support for Ukrainian “terrorist acts” and “directly contribute” to such attacks, the statement read, pointing to the continued supply of ever more powerful Western weapons to Ukraine. It particularly drew attention to the US-made ATACMS missiles capable of “striking targets deep inside Russian territory.”
Last week, former UK prime minister and current Foreign Secretary David Cameron stated that Kiev had every right to use British weapons to strike targets inside Russia as well. The US had also "created new threats" to Russia’s national security through deployment of its intermediate-range ground-based missile systems around the world, the ministry said. Such weapons were banned under the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), but Washington unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2019.
The move left Russia with no choice but to leave the treaty as well. However, Moscow introduced a moratorium on fielding weapons that used to be covered by the treaty. Russia now reserves the right to a “mirror response” to American actions, the ministry said, adding that the moratorium could be lifted. Moscow also slammed statements by French President Emmanuel Macron about a potential NATO troop deployment to Ukraine. “This cannot be perceived in any other way than a demonstration of the readiness and willingness to enter a direct military confrontation with Russia,” the ministry warned. Last week, Macron said that Western nations would have to consider such an option if Kiev officially requested it. “Such actions of the NATO member states show that they deliberately strive for further escalation of the Ukraine crisis towards a direct military clash between NATO and Russia,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
Russia has decided to hold tactical nuclear weapons drills in response to certain NATO countries’ remarks about potentially sending troops to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said. According to Peskov, the decision was made following a “new” and “unprecedented” escalation of the situation surrounding the Ukraine conflict. “They talked about the readiness and even the intention to send armed contingents to Ukraine, that is, to actually put NATO soldiers in front of the Russian military,” Peskov said at a press briefing. ”This is a new round of escalation of tension, and it is unprecedented. It requires special attention and special measures,” Peskov told journalists.
The Defense Ministry in Moscow cited “provocative statements and threats against Russia by certain Western officials” as the reason for the exercise. Missile forces from the Southern Military District will be directly involved in the drills, the ministry said. The goal is to iron out “the practical aspects of the preparation and deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons,” it added.
The US, the UK, France and other Western nations should take a Russian nuclear drill as a reminder of where escalation of the Ukraine conflict could take them, former President Dmitry Medvedev said 06 May 2024. Medvedev, who serves as deputy head of the Russian Security Council, referred to debates in the West about possible deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine, as well as “active encouragement [of Kiev] to use [Western] missile weapons against the entire Russian territory” as grounds for the drill. "The chorus of irresponsible scoundrels among the Western political elite calling for the sending of their troops to a non-existent country is growing. Now it includes representatives of the US Congress, French and British leadership, and individual madmen from the Baltic states and Poland. They also call for the active use of their missile weapons, which they supplied to Bandera’s supporters, throughout Russia.
"And this is not a spring aggravation, but a cynical calculation of political dividends. There is some kind of total degradation of the ruling class in the West. This class really does not want to logically connect elementary things. Sending your troops to the territory of b. Ukraine will entail the direct entry of their countries into the war, to which we will have to respond. And, alas, not in the territory of b. Ukraine. In this case, none of them will be able to hide either on Capitol Hill, or in the Elysee Palace, or in 10 Downing Street. A world catastrophe will come. By the way, Kennedy and Khrushchev were able to understand this more than 60 years ago. But the current infantile morons who have seized power in the West do not want to understand. And that is why today the General Staff began preparations for the exercises, including activities for practical testing of the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons."
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric expressed concern that various parties have been talking about issues regarding nuclear weapons more and more recently. “Current nuclear risks are at an alarmingly high level,” Dujarric said. “All actions that could lead to miscalculation, escalation with catastrophic consequences, must be avoided.”
The Russian announcement stirred little reaction in Ukraine, where the spokesman for the Military Intelligence agency, Andrii Yusov, said on national television: “Nuclear blackmail is a usual practice of Putin’s regime; it does not constitute major news.”
"Russia’s rhetoric – their nuclear rhetoric – has been reckless and irresponsible throughout this conflict. That said, we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture in response to these announcements, nor any indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine." Matthew Miller, spokesperson of the US State Department, said 07 May 2024.
In accordance with the order of the President of the Republic of Belarus, a sudden inspection of non-strategic nuclear weapons carriers is being carried out in the Armed Forces. Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus, Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin said 07 May 2024 : "Today an order was received from the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus to conduct a surprise inspection of the forces and means of non-strategic nuclear weapons carriers. A division of the Iskander operational-tactical complex and a squadron of Su-25 aircraft are being prepared to carry out their intended missions. The inspection will be carried out strictly in accordance with the time regulations established by the Commander-in-Chief. During it, the entire range of activities from planning, preparation and use of strikes with tactical nuclear weapons will be tested.""
All the people should unite in order to prevent World War Three and a nuclear apocalypse. Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko made the statement during the ceremony held on 09 May 2024 to lay wreaths and flowers at the Victory Monument as part of the patriotic campaign “Belarus remembers!”. The head of state stressed that the West is driven by material gains and rejects dialogue and cooperation. In these conditions the voice of everyone, who speaks up to defend peace, who desires cooperation, and shares ideals of justice and global equality, has never been more important. “But we don’t hear these voices, unfortunately,” the president pointed out. “We know how such silence ended last century. Today they want to once again push us into the same abyss.”
“We should do everything to prevent World War Three. Otherwise, a nuclear apocalypse will be unavoidable. All of us have to unite for this purpose,” the president stated. "In the course of its history humanity has already managed to get united once against a universal evil and this unity led to victory, the head of state recalled. “Back then we crushed fascism because we stood together: Russians and Belarusians, Ukrainians and Kazakhs, Lithuanians and Uzbeks, Moldovans and Tajiks. All the peoples of the large Soviet country. Tens of other nations fought with us against Hitler’s horde. Including nations of Europe and the United States of America,” Aleksandr Lukashenko said.
Dmitry Medvedev wrote 10 May 2024 : "Here someone called Cameron called to fight Putin to the bitter end. Ox... I remember this guy quite well. I worked with him when he became prime minister. An ordinary dull Brit. He was then joyfully stupid and looked like a young devil (wisdom) of silt, who revels in his unexpectedly acquired position. By the way, he was not even a patent Russophobe then. So, average, no more... And now? “Ukrainians, you can fire our missiles wherever you want.” And we British are not afraid of anything, not even a nuclear conflict.
"Steep! In vain, uncle. After all, Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG is not controlled by idiots in embroidered shirts, but by the British and French. Under certain circumstances, the answer for this will fly not only to Kyiv. And not only with conventional explosives, but also with special ammunition. And practicing a response to such attacks is the goal of the planned exercises. And even the not fully educated Morons of His Royal Majesty should understand this. What about the fight against Putin? In other words, the fight against Russia. I don't have a decent answer, except maybe one. David, be more careful. It's possible... No, I will not. He's also indecent..."
By Tarik Cyril Amar, a historian from Germany working at Koç University, Istanbul, wrote 10 May 2024 : "Great Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron publicly encouraged Kiev to use British Storm Shadow missiles to strike inside Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron continued to threaten a direct – not covert, as at present – intervention by French, that is, NATO, troops (In addition, an intriguing and much-discussed article reported that a deployment of 1,500 troops from France’s Foreign Legion had already begun. While its sources were hard to assess, its claims appeared too plausible for easy dismissal.) Moscow, in return, issued a set of stark warnings, laying down – or highlighting – red lines. It announced drills with tactical nuclear weapons. Belarus did the same; in Minsk’s case, the weapons in question are, of course, also Russian. In addition, the British and French ambassadors received extremely straight talk about the risks their respective governments were running....
"Addressing London, Moscow made clear that Kiev striking inside Russia with British missiles would expose Britain to “catastrophic consequences,” in particular, Russian retaliation against British forces anywhere. Regarding France, Moscow blasted its “belligerent” and “provocative” conduct and defied as futile French attempts to produce “strategic ambiguity.....
”we have that persistent policy of Moscow, namely its nuclear doctrine. Much Western commentary tends to overlook or downplay this factor, caricaturing Russia’s repeated warnings about nuclear weapons as “saber-rattling.” Yet, in reality, these warnings are consistent expressions of a policy that has been developed since the early 2000s, that is, for almost a quarter-century.
"A key feature of this doctrine is that Russia explicitly retains the option of using nuclear weapons at a relatively early stage in a major conflict and before an adversary has had recourse to them. Many Western analysts have described the purpose of this posture as facilitating a strategy of “escalating to deescalate” (sometimes abbreviated as E2DE), here meaning specifically to end a conventional conflict on favorable terms through a limited use of nuclear weapons to deter the adversary from continuing.... one side of its nuclear doctrine stresses that nuclear weapons could only be used if the existence of the Russian state was in danger, as has just been underlined again by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov. But to misunderstand this as a promise that Moscow would only use nukes if Moscow were under siege and half of Russia’s territory or population gone already, would be foolish. In reality, there also is room in its nuclear doctrine for treating the “unconditional territorial integrity and sovereignty” of Russia as critical thresholds."
"We warn that they are playing with fire. They have long been in a state of indirect war with the Russian Federation," deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov told TASS 17 May 2024, referring to the United States. "They somehow fail to realise that, in order to satisfy their own geopolitical ideas, they are approaching a phase in which it will be very difficult to control what is happening and to prevent a dramatic crisis."
Troops of Russia’s Southern Military District launched the first stage of recently announced tactical nuclear drills on 21 May 2024, the Defense Ministry in Moscow confirmed. When announcing the drills a week previously, the ministry explained that the exercise is designed to serve as a deterrent amid continued escalation between Russia and the West, by demonstrating Moscow’s ability to respond to any external threats. It will involve delivery of nuclear weapons to troops from storage sites, arming tactical nuclear missiles, and preparation of missile launches, Moscow announced in a statement on Telegram. A video published by the military shows crews of several Iskander-M systems arming them with missiles and preparing them for launch.
The troops will be using the Iskander-M systems, which can fire 9M723-1 ballistic missiles or 9M728 cruise missiles, both of which can carry tactical nuclear warheads with yields between five and 50 kilotons. The Southern Military District forces will also practice covert deployment operations using the systems, as part of launch-preparation drills, according to the military. The exercise will also involve nuclear arming of the air-launched missiles, including the state-of-the-art, hypersonic Kinzhal. The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles and the Kh-32 cruise missiles that are delivered by Russian bombers are capable of carrying warheads similar to those mounted on Iskander projectiles. During the drills, Russian aircraft are to fly on patrol missions armed with these missiles, according to the ministry.
The drills are “aimed at maintaining the combat readiness of the personnel and equipment of the non-strategic nuclear-weapon units,” the ministry’s statement said. It added that Russian forces should be ready to “unconditionally” ensure sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, amid “provocative statements and threats” made by some Western officials. Moscow announced the drills earlier in May, citing what it called a “new” and “unprecedented” escalation in the Ukraine conflict. The Kremlin pointed to statements by French President Emmanuel Macron, who has repeatedly refused to rule out a NATO deployment in Ukraine. Similar ideas have been voiced by US House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries. Former UK prime minister and current Foreign Secretary David Cameron also stated recently that Kiev has the right to use British weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia. In response, Moscow summoned the British ambassador and warned of a potential response to such attacks.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said later that the drills should be viewed as an attempt to “cool hot heads” in the West amid “belligerent statements” and “destabilizing actions” of the NATO countries. The Southern Military District where the exercise is taking place covers the southern part of European Russia, mostly lying between the Black and the Caspian Seas, and comprises a total of 19 regions, including Crimea and the four former Ukrainian territories that joined Russia in autumn 2022.
The Kremlin acts in the way so that its “nuclear saber-rattling” overlaps with major policy discussions in the West, impacting Western decision-makers. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated this in its report 21 May 2024. ISW recalled that the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on May 21 that missile elements of the Southern Military District (SMD) began the first stage of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons exercises. In addition, Russian Aerospace Forces will also exercise with Iskander ballistic missiles and Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles.
Experts add that a famous Kremlin-awarded military blogger explicitly tied Russian tactical nuclear weapons exercises to Kremlin efforts to have influence on the discussions about the restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia. “[This is] echoing ISW’s assessment that Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons tests are part of a Kremlin reflexive control campaign that often uses nuclear saber-rattling to influence Western decision-makers to engage in self-deterrence,” the report says.
At the same time, ISW keeps saying that Western limits on Ukraine’s ability to strike military targets in Russia are “severely compromising Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against current Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast or any area along the international border where Russian forces may choose to conduct offensive operations in the future.”
Sergey Poletaev, information analyst and publicist, co-founder and editor of the Vatfor project, wrote 22 May 2024 "The reason for the West’s indecisiveness is clear: it fears an escalation of the conflict. Russia is the world’s largest nuclear power and President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that he will not tolerate a widespread NATO intervention, which will result in a nuclear war. Moscow’s warnings have challenged Western countries, headed by the US, to find ways “to intervene without intervening” and to enable Ukraine to win (or at least save face) without directly defeating Russia. In short, Western countries are forced to walk the thin line between defeat and nuclear war, without a clear end goal in sight.
"After the failure to cut open a land corridor to Crimea, the West has not been able to find an alternative military strategy. Moreover, it has no idea how to get out of the war of attrition which, even in the case of a positional deadlock and a ‘static’ front, will result in Ukraine’s defeat, since an opponent that is many times weaker (Ukraine’s current population is at least five times less than that of Russia) will inevitably lose. We see plenty of such examples in history"....
"And what about sending troops to Ukraine – will the West actually do it? ... even though such efforts might stabilize the situation at the front and save the AFU (supposing that the Kremlin does not declare a greater or even full mobilization in response), it would not guarantee Russia’s defeat but would only bring nuclear war closer."
Russian President Vladimir Putin on 28 May 2024 warned that NATO is playing with fire by proposing to let Ukraine use Western weapons to strike targets inside Russia. "Constant escalation can lead to serious consequences," Putin told reporters in Tashkent. "If these serious consequences occur in Europe, how will the United States behave, bearing in mind our parity in the field of strategic weapons? ... It's hard to say - do they want a global conflict?" Putin said Ukrainian strikes on Russia with long-range weapons would need Western satellite, intelligence and military help - so the West would be directly involved. He said sending French troops to Ukraine would be a step towards a global conflict.
"It's playing with fire, without a doubt," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said denouncing an attempt to "weaken Russia" by "Washington, London and their satellites in the EU". Russia's top diplomat warned Sunday that Western nations were "playing with fire" by agreeing to provide Ukraine with US-made F-16 fighter jets, calling it "an unacceptable escalation" of the conflict.
The Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin, cautioned against authorizing the use of NATO-supplied weapons by Ukraine in Russian territory, warning that it would unleash an "uncontrollable escalation" of the conflict. “It is a truly disturbing prospect”, he said 30 May 2024 at the margins of the presentation of a book on Vatican banking in Milan, Italy. The use of the weapons provided by Ukraine’s Western allies to strike targets inside Russia has become a hot-button issue among NATO members especially since the new offensive launched by Russia in the Kharkiv region, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urging them to abandon the position some of them have held throughout Russia's 27-month-old full-scale invasion.
Commenting on these developments with the press in Milan, Cardinal Parolin reiterated the Holy See’s concerns over the risk of a further escalation of the conflict. "I think this possibility should concern all those who have the fate of our world at heart," he said. "This could entail an escalation that no one will be able to control any longer.”
The Washington Post reported 29 May 2024 that it’s been told by anonymous US officials that “The United States is concerned about Ukraine’s recent strikes against Russian ballistic missile early-warning sites.” Washington has conveyed its concerns to Kyiv about two attempted attacks over the last week against radar stations that provide conventional air defense as well as warning of nuclear launches by the West. The US says “These sites have not been involved in supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine. But they are sensitive locations because Russia could perceive that its strategic deterrent capabilities are being targeted, which could undermine Russia’s ability to maintain nuclear deterrence against the United States.” Ukraine says, no, Russia’s using these sites to track our drones and missiles.
The Ukrainian attack on a Russian early-warning radar installation may have been approved by the US and poses the risk of a nuclear escalation, an analysis published by the Austrian armed forces has warned. Ukrainian sources claimed last week that Kiev had delivered a strike at a Voronezh-DM site in Russia’s southern Krasnodar Region, near the city of Armavir. The alleged operation is significant, considering that the facility is part of Russian nuclear deterrence, according to a text by Colonel Markus Reisner and posted by the Austrian military on Sunday.
It is unlikely that attacking the radar station had direct military value for Kiev, Reisner argues. Disabling it would reduce the amount of intelligence that Russia collects on Ukrainian launches of US-donated ATACMS ballistic missiles, he added. But the station is designed to detect intercontinental ballistic missiles that fly at altitudes much higher than the tactical weapons used by Ukraine.
The expert suggested that the attack may have been a US-sanctioned response to Moscow’s reminders that it could use non-strategic nuclear weapons under certain circumstances. Senior Ukrainian and Western officials have called those statements a form of blackmail. Earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin ordered tactical nuclear exercises in the Southern Military District, which borders Ukraine. Moscow said this was in response to increasingly hostile rhetoric by Western officials. ”If this is indeed the case, two further conclusions can be drawn: first, the situation in Ukraine is extremely serious and, second, the war over Ukraine has escalated again,” Reisner wrote. Such an attack could qualify for a nuclear retaliation, the colonel added.
Dmitry Suslov, member of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, deputy director of World Economy and International Politics at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, and Valdai Club expert, wrote 30 May 2024 : "US and several of its allies may soon allow Ukraine to use Western weapons, including long-range missiles, to attack targets located within – how do we put this? – Russia’s internationally recognized borders.... Such a decision would take the conflict to a fundamentally different level, would mean the erasure of one of the brightest “red lines” that has existed since February 24, 2022, and signal the direct entry of the US and its NATO bloc into the war against Russia. Indeed, the strikes would be carried out on the basis of coordinates provided by Western intelligence systems; the decisions on these strikes would be taken by Western military officers (the media has repeatedly relayed confessions from Ukrainian military officers that every case of Western missile use is coordinated in advance by Western military advisers); and even the button would probably be pressed directly by Western military officers. It is no coincidence that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz justifies his reluctance to transfer Taurus missiles on the grounds that they would have to be operated by German, not Ukrainian, military personnel....
".... the West itself has given the Ukrainian conflict the status of a World War, and therefore Kiev’s defeat will mean its own strategic defeat, the final collapse of the Western-centered international order.... Russia’s unwillingness to escalate relations with the West each time it crossed a ‘red line’ and became more involved in the conflict (supplying Kiev with tanks, aircraft and, eventually, long-range missiles). As a result, the fear of escalation, which was relatively high at the beginning of the military operation, has gradually diminished, as Western publications have repeatedly pointed out. Thus, the West has come to believe that the cost of Kiev’s defeat is far greater than the risks of a direct military confrontation with Russia, as a result of allowing Western weapons to strike deep into its ‘old’ territory....
"There is only one way to prevent such a catastrophic development of events: a sharp increase in Moscow’s policy of deterrence and intimidation. The option of ‘freezing’ military operations along the current line of demarcation without any political conditions for Kiev and modalities for its security relations with the West is completely unacceptable.... we should first tell the US and NATO roughly what Moscow already told London after David Cameron’s words about Ukraine’s right to strike anywhere with British Storm Shadow missiles. Namely, that in the event of an attack on ‘old’ Russian territory, Moscow reserves the right to strike any facilities of the countries concerned, including the US, anywhere in the world. There are many American military bases dotted around the globe. Secondly, it is important to officially declare that if the US/NATO launches a non-nuclear strike on Russian territory in response to such a Russian strike, Moscow may in turn use nuclear weapons – in full accordance with the ‘Fundamentals of Russian State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence’....
"to confirm the seriousness of Russia’s intentions and to convince our adversaries of Moscow’s willingness to escalate, it is worth considering a demonstration (i.e. non-aggressive) nuclear explosion. The political and psychological effect of an atomic mushroom cloud, broadcast live on all the world’s television channels, will hopefully bring back to Western politicians the one thing that prevented wars between the great powers after 1945, and which they have now largely lost – the fear of nuclear war."
Sergey Lavrov told Sputnik 30 May 2024 : "You are undoubtedly correct that the deployment of American ground-based intermediate and shorter-range missiles (INF) in the mentioned regions would pose a serious security challenge for us. This issue is not only significant for us. In a joint statement following the recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China, it was noted that such destabilizing actions by the US represent a direct threat to both our country and China. Therefore, we have agreed with our Chinese partners to increase cooperation to counteract Washington's irresponsible behavior, which undermines international stability.
"The implementation of US plans to deploy ground-based INF missiles will not go unanswered by us. Specifically, in this scenario, the abandonment of unilateral self-imposed restrictions introduced by Russia after a US withdrawal from the INF Treaty is inevitable. Additional steps in the field of nuclear deterrence are also not ruled out, as forward-deployed American missiles could target our command posts and locations of our nuclear forces. Decisions on these matters are within the competence of the president of the Russian Federation....
The supply of increasingly destructive weapons to the Kiev regime indicates the West's lack of interest in ending the conflict. The delivery of American F-16 fighters will not change the situation on the front lines. These aircraft will be destroyed, just like other types of weapons supplied by NATO countries to Ukraine.
It is important to note that F-16 fighters have long been a primary means of delivery in NATO's so-called joint nuclear missions. Therefore, we cannot help but view the supply of these systems to the Kiev regime as a deliberate signaling action by NATO in the nuclear sphere. They are trying to convey that the US and NATO are ready to go to any lengths in Ukraine. Nevertheless, we hope that the ongoing Russian-Belarusian exercises, which involve the practice of using non-strategic nuclear weapons, will serve as a sobering reminder to our opponents of the catastrophic consequences of further escalation up the nuclear ladder....
In the US National Security Strategy, Russia is identified as an immediate threat. The US and NATO openly state that their goal is to inflict a "strategic defeat" on our country. In this context, the fate of the civilian population of Russian cities does not concern the White House, which has become an accomplice in the crimes of the Kiev regime.
Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said 31 May 2024 Western countries may be making a "fatal mistake" in assuming that Russia will never use tactical nuclear weapons (TNW). "Just a few years ago, they [the West, NATO countries] were saying that Russia would not engage in an open military conflict with the Bandera regime in order not to quarrel with the West. They miscalculated. There is a war underway," Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel. According to him, "they may also be miscalculating with the [possible] use of TNWs."
"However, this would be a fatal mistake. After all, as the Russian president justly pointed out, European countries have a very high population density. And for those enemy countries whose lands are beyond the TNW coverage zone, there is strategic potential," he added. "No matter how much NATO’s retired old farts babble that Russia will never use non-strategic nuclear weapons against former Ukraine and what’s more, against individual NATO countries, reality is much harsher than their frivolous musings," Medvedev noted.
Medvedev believes it is possible that the conflict between Russia and the West has already entered its final stage. "Unfortunately, this is neither intimidation nor a nuclear bluff. The current military conflict with the West is developing according to the worst-case scenario," he said. According to him, there is a constant escalation around the use of NATO weapons. "Therefore, today no one can exclude the possibility of the conflict shifting to its final stage," Medvedev added.
Russia has tactical nuclear weapons that could well destroy human civilization, but so far there are no conditions under which their use would be justified. Nikolai Kostikin , an expert at the Bureau of Military-Political Analysis, told National News Service (NSN) 31 May 2024.
“What is considered a tactical nuclear weapon? If we are talking about the minimum possible power of one kiloton, this is one thing. But if we take into account that the nuclear explosions in Hiroshima and Nagasaki also, by modern standards, belong to tactical nuclear weapons, this is completely different. The disasters in Hiroshima and Nagasaki are well documented, and it is possible to evaluate the consequences of this impact to visualize the effect. But there could potentially be tens or hundreds of these “Hiroshimas.” In my opinion, it is immoral to talk about whether it is better or worse. This is the unconditional final of Europe. And given the increased likelihood of conflict escalation and the use of strategic weapons, this is most likely the end of our civilization . According to various estimates, the effect will be comparable to a hypothetical meteorite impact , after which the dinosaurs disappeared, adjusted for the fact that there will be massive radioactive contamination on the Earth's surface for several days. And then millennia - non-massive. This will happen if a limited nuclear war in Europe develops into a global one,” Kostikin said.
The NSN interlocutor suggested against what targets in Ukraine and Europe tactical nuclear weapons could be used.
“A nuclear explosion is a strike on a specific point. It will cause massive destruction and radioactive contamination of the area, that is, it will actually disable a specific fortified area, airfield, logistics hub, and so on. This can be done with conventional weapons, with the caveat that this area can then be occupied by our troops without carrying out an extremely costly and risky procedure for decontaminating the area. In my opinion, there are no such goals for us in Ukraine now. An exception may be the tunnel through the Carpathian Mountains , which provides rail links to Europe. Perhaps some other bridges. But this can be seen as retaliation with various escalation options. Consider the scenario of a limited nuclear war in Europe, in which there are nuclear weapons, both American and domestic. In this case, most likely, we will receive a response to our actions. In Europe, all more or less large logistics hubs, fuel and energy complex facilities, sea and river ports, as well as airports can be hit,” the expert said.
In conclusion, Kostikin listed the conditions under which Russia could be the first to use nuclear weapons. “In my opinion, Russia can now be the first to use it in the event of the NATO army entering the territories annexed by Russia and temporarily occupied by Ukrainian troops. Another option is if the threat of a NATO invasion is perceived as an existential threat to Russia. This is spelled out in the country's military doctrine. In all other cases, I do not see a military need for the use of nuclear weapons,” he concluded.
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