At the battle of Stirling Bridge, 11 September 1297, the movie Braveheart has William Wallace provoking the English to battle, saying "Here are Scotland's terms. Lower your flags, and march straight back to England, stopping at every home to beg forgiveness for 100 years of theft, rape, and murder. Do that and your men shall live. Do it not, and every one of you will die today. ... Before we let you leave, your commander must cross that field, present himself before this army, put his head between his legs, and kiss his own ass."
Putin's Nuclear Crisis - August 2024
Threats about the use of nuclear weapons from the Kremlin have been heard since the beginning of the full-scale war. This is cynically called “protection of Russian interests.”
Within the framework of the third stage of the non-strategic nuclear forces drills troops have begun equipping launch vehicles and aircraft weapons, the Russian Defense Ministry said on 01 August 2024. The previous day, ministry announced the beginning of the third stage of exercises of non-strategic nuclear forces, during which issues of training units of the armed forces of Russia for the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons will be worked out. "As part of the third stage of the exercise of non-strategic nuclear forces, the personnel of the missile formations of the southern and central military districts and the aviation units of the aerospace forces involved worked out issues of obtaining special training ammunition, entering designated areas and began equipping launch vehicles and aviation weapons," the ministry said in a statement.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced the start of the third stage of the "non-strategic nuclear forces" exercises. This involves maneuvers to practice the use of tactical nuclear weapons. At the same time, the Russians showed footage of the R-33 air-to-air missiles being suspended on a MiG-31BM interceptor , writes Defense Express 01 august 2024. "A notable feature of this particular event is that the Russian military announced that it was "working on obtaining special training ammunition and equipping it with aviation weapons," while they showed footage of the suspension of the MiG-31BM air-to-air missile of the R-33 type. ... These shots attract attention to the protective net stretched over the MiG-31BM in case of a possible attack by Ukrainian drones, although the action takes place at the Bolshoye Savino airfield in the city of Perm, 1,500 kilometers from the border with Ukraine," the publication writes.
Analysts also noted that the Russians chose a rather risky facility, since Bolshoye Savino is a joint-use airport where civil aviation passenger planes regularly land. "Russians have chosen a rather risky object for the "play of muscles" on the subject of the possible use of nuclear "special munitions", since "Bolshoe Savino" is a shared airport where civil aviation passenger planes constantly land."
Analysts were also drawn to the fact that for this “muscle flexing,” the Russians chose an air-to-air missile that was put into service back in the 1980s, and for which there was in fact no data on the installation of a nuclear warhead, which had reportedly been dis-continued in the early 1990s. "The launch range of this missile, depending on the modification, fluctuates between 120-160 kilometers, and the declared probability of hitting a target with one missile is 0.65. In other words, to be guaranteed to shoot down one air target, pilots need to launch two R-33s at once, although a MiG-31 interceptor can carry a maximum of six such missiles," the publication says. "Therefore, on the one hand, one can question the very fact that the Russians have "special ammunition" for R-33 air-to-air missiles. On the other hand, it should be noted that the Russian military tried to demonstrate the supposedly possible use of such weapons." On Wednesday evening, August 7, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russian troops had stopped the advance of Ukrainian saboteurs deep into Russian territory in the Kursk direction. Military experts believe that the fighters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces unit that struck the Russian region will die, and are discussing how large-scale Moscow's response to Kyiv's provocation will be. Is it possible to use tactical nuclear weapons (TNW)?
The Telegram channel “MIG of Russia” suggested that similar deep breakthroughs by the Ukrainian Armed Forces into Russia are unlikely , if only because “in that case, tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) will be used somewhere else to stop the breakthrough.”
Captain 1st Rank (Reserve) Vasily Dandykin disagreed with this forecast. According to him, Russia can cope without tactical nuclear weapons. “There is no need to open Pandora’s box, because this is exactly what the West and NATO want. They want us to use such weapons so that they can then accuse us of starting a nuclear war. We have enough conventional weapons. Our president said that it is important not only to achieve the goals of the SVO, but also to save as many lives as possible. We must act according to the precept of the great Suvorov: “Fight not with numbers, but with skill.” This is how Russian troops are acting now,” Dandykin said. According to Dandykin, it is now necessary to take control of the Sumy and Chernigov regions in order to include them in the Russian "security zone". "This zone should be tens, if not hundreds of kilometers from the border."
Moskovsky Komsomolets spoke 08 August 2024 with the chairman of the board of the All-Russian organization "Officers of Russia", retired lieutenant colonel Roman Shkurlatov. "We do not plan to use any nuclear weapons first - neither tactical, nor especially strategic. So far, as far as I know, the concept has not changed. Such weapons are used against some large concentrations of troops, logistics centers, command centers."
Max Seddon and Chris Cook reported in the Financial Times 13 August 2024 "according to secret files seen by the Financial Times. Maps of targets as far-flung as the west coast of France and Barrow-in-Furness in the UK are detailed in a presentation for officers that predates the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The FT has previously reported from the same cache of 29 secret Russian military files that Moscow had rehearsed using tactical nuclear weapons in the early stages of a conflict ....
"The presentation also references the option of a so-called demonstration strike — detonating a nuclear weapon in a remote area “in a period of immediate threat of aggression” before an actual conflict to scare western countries. Russia has never acknowledged such strikes are in its doctrine. Such a strike, the files say, would show “the availability and readiness for use of precision non-strategic nuclear weapons” and the “intention to use nuclear weapons”."...
"Russia has retained the capability to carry tactical nuclear weapons on surface ships despite a 1991 agreement between the Soviet Union and the US to remove them. Among Russia’s carriers of tactical nuclear weapons, it lists “anti-submarine missiles with nuclear warheads placed on surface ships and submarines” and “ship and shore-based anti-aircraft guided missiles with nuclear warheads to defeat enemy air defence groups”.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko told the Rossiya TV channel in an interview 15 August 2024 whether he is ready to press the “red button” if necessary. He stated that opponents of Belarus and Russia have already pressed “these red buttons”, all that remains is to press “the reddest one”. "That is why, from a moral point of view, it is probably even somehow awkward for Putin and me to talk about this when we make such decisions," BelTA quoted the head of the Belarusian state as saying.
Lukashenko recalled that when tactical nuclear weapons appeared in Belarus, he told his opponents abroad that he was not going to use any weapons until certain circumstances arose. "Until you (Western countries – Sputnik) step on our state border. It is also the border of our Union State," the Belarusian leader explained. The President also recalled that Russia will provide military support to Belarus in the event of aggression against Minsk – according to existing agreements, Moscow will introduce its troops into the republic. "We take the first blow, and then Russia backs us up in reserve. This is a common war - between Belarus and Russia - against these beasts," Alexander Lukashenko emphasized. He assured that in the event of a possible war, Belarus will respond immediately and adequately.
Ukrainian forces have begun preparations to target nuclear waste storage sites at a Russian power plant with radioactive warheads and to then blame Moscow, according to intelligence reported by Russian media 16 Agust 2024. Kiev’s forces have already struck the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), Europe’s largest, and started a fire at one of the cooling towers, while accusing Russia of bombing itself. “Sources on the other side report that the [Ukrainians] are preparing a nuclear false flag – an explosion of a dirty atomic bomb,” military journalist Marat Khairullin said Friday on his Telegram channel. “They plan to strike the storage sites of spent nuclear fuel of a nuclear power plant.”
The special warheads intended for the attack have already been delivered to the Vostochny Mining and Processing plant in Zhovti Vody, in Ukraine’s Dnepropetrovsk Region, according to Khairullin. As possible targets of the attack, Khairullin indicated either the Zaporozhye NPP in Energodar or the Kursk NPP in Kurchatov, noting that the Ukrainian government and its Western backers are “desperate and willing to try anything.”
A security official in the Russian Military Administration of Kharkov Region corroborated Khairullin’s claim to RIA Novosti. The attack is intended to use radioactive warheads to target spent fuel storage sites at a nuclear power plant, and the ammunition has already been delivered to Zhovti Vody. Kiev’s intention is to accuse Moscow of a false flag so it could justify using nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the security official said. The Ukrainian government has received orders from its Western backers to “escalate as much as possible,” he added. According to the security official, the intelligence came from Ukrainian prisoners of war.
RIA Novosti also quoted Sergey Lebedev, introduced as leader of the Nikolaev Region underground, who said the planned attack would be carried out with NATO weapons, with the consent of the West. “Banderites are planning to carry out a missile attack with NATO weapons on the Kursk and Zaporozhye nuclear power plants in the near future,” Lebedev told the agency. “Western intelligence agencies, mainly British, are supervising the terrorist attack. Long-range missiles do not fly without their knowledge.” Lebedev pointed out that a large number of Western journalists have already arrived in the Sumy Region near Kursk, as well as the Ukrainian-controlled part of Zaporozhye, suggesting that this is part of Kiev’s preparations for the nuclear false flag.
Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, on 17 August 2024 denied Russian reports about Ukraine's alleged plans to use “dirty bombs” or attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (NPP). “We are witnessing another surge of crazy Russian propaganda about Ukraine's alleged plans to use ‘dirty bombs’ or attack nuclear power plants. We officially refute these fake reports. Ukraine has neither the intention nor the ability to carry out any such actions. Russia must stop spreading dangerous lies,” said Tykhyi.
The MFA noted that Ukraine has always been and remains a committed member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Read also: IAEA experts denied access inside Russian-occupied ZNPP’s “We do not have any 'dirty bombs' and do not plan to acquire them. When Russia first spread this nonsense in 2022, we invited the IAEA mission, which completely refuted this lie. Nothing has changed since then,” the MFA spokesman emphasized.
Ukraine’s incursion into internationally recognized Russian territory looks like an attempt to compel Moscow to use nuclear weapons, which would irrevocably damage its image globally, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said. In an interview with Rossiya-1 aired on Sunday 18 August 2024, Lukashenko warned that Kiev’s operation in Kursk Region – the largest cross-border assault by Kiev since the outbreak of the conflict – posed enormous risks to global security.
“The danger is that this kind of escalation on the part of Ukraine is an attempt to push Russia into asymmetric actions, well, let's say, the use of nuclear weapons,” the Belarusian leader said, adding that "I know for sure that Ukraine would be very happy if Russia used, or we did, tactical nuclear weapons." Lukashenko said “Then we would probably have hardly any allies left. There would be no sympathetic countries left at all,” he noted, explaining that this reaction would be based on the universal aversion to the fallout that could be caused by nuclear weapons. Lukashenko noted that a certain negative image has already been formed regarding nuclear weapons.
Lukashenko also responded to statements by Ukrainian officials that the Kursk incursion was aimed at improving Kiev’s diplomatic position for possible talks with Russia. This plan is “a classic, but it does not work in a struggle against a great empire that has not even begun to fight in earnest,” he argued, adding he was sure that the Ukrainians would eventually be expelled from Kursk Region.
According to its current nuclear doctrine, Russia can deploy its nuclear arsenal only “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.” Russian President Vladimir Putin had said on several occasions that there is no need to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine campaign. Moscow has warned that it may change its nuclear doctrine, but said that any changes would be in response to what it perceives as escalatory moves by NATO.
Orest Sohar, an international columnist, commented 18 August 2024: "The breach of the border in the Kursk region has made our intimidated partners convinced of what is obvious: nuclear threats are just part of Putin’s PSYOP, rather than a meaningful strategy pursued by the Russian Federation. And all the more so as Putin has an “older brother” in China, whose plans don’t include a nuclear war. It is critically necessary that Ukraine’s armed forces get their hands untied immediately: Ukrainian soldiers must be made free to use Bradley, Leopard, HIMARS for attacks on the aggressor’s territory. Sadly enough, the current black list of prohibitions includes UK-made Storm Shadow and U.S.-made ATACMS missiles, and Germany’s Taurus missiles are not in Ukrainian service either. It seems like it’s just a matter of time before these bans are lifted."
Dmitry Simes commented 18 August 2024: "what could be a more serious, more dangerous violation for America than the United States increasingly embroiled in direct, immediate conflict with another great nuclear power? And in America, very few people know about it. And even fewer understand it. If you look at the polls, they say that in the ongoing and still gathering momentum election campaign, foreign policy is virtually absent."
The commander of the Chechnyan "Akhmat" Army, Russian General Apty Alaudinov, said 19 August 2024 "The NATO bloc and America fight a proxy-war through Ukraine against Russia. We realise this. And if today, they are trying through such actions to make Russia use its nuclear weapons, Russia shows restraint.... It's either you stand up and stop your fascist Satanic leadership and forces, or you also appear to the Third world war zone under nuclear bombs falling onto your head, as you've been trying with all means to make Russia cross the red line and start protecting itself using all these nuclear weapons.... In any case, if you want Russia to lose the war, you have to understand: the Russian nuclear state will not lose the war. After all, why do we need the world if there is no Russia?"
Richard N. Haass, a former senior State Department and National Security Council official for several Republican presidents, and the president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, noted in an interview 20 August 2024 with David E. Sanger for The New York Times: “We are dealing with a Russia that is radicalized; the idea that nukes wouldn’t be used in a conventional conflict is not longer a safe assumption.”
Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds said of nuclear threats, 26 August 2024, that "Russia sometimes blackmails with this. We must not fall into this trap, but on the other hand, we must be prepared. We don't discuss the plans publicly, but it's generally about strategic nuclear deterrence. However, it needs to be strengthened with conventional resources, to build up forces within the framework of NATO. In this sense, there is a positive trend. And last but not least, we must constantly support Ukraine."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a news conference 27 August 2024 following talks with Yemeni Foreign Minister Shaya Mohsen al-Zindani: "I recently cited a statement by White House National Security Advisor J. Kirby. A couple of months ago, he said that escalation is dangerous because it is extremely undesirable to bring things to a world war, since Europe will suffer because of it. J. Kirby recently repeated this again. Americans clearly associate talk about a third world war as something (which, God forbid, if it is realized) that can affect only Europe. This is an indicative moment reflecting the mentality of American "planners", geostrategists, convinced that they will "sit it out". In this situation, it is probably important to understand that we have our own doctrine, including the doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons. It is currently being clarified. And American "figures" are well aware of it. They break through in a Freudian way, that, supposedly, a third world war is bad, because they do not want Europe to suffer. That is the entire American mentality. This is the mentality of the owner who sits on the “other” shore, convinced of his safety, that not only Ukrainians will do his dirty work and die for him, but, as it turns out, now also Europeans.
We have been hearing these speculations for a long time about allowing the use of not only Storm Shadow, but also American long-range missiles. In Washington, some anonymous source said that such work is being done. Ukraine's request, they say, is being considered in a generally positive light. I will not add anything more here. Russian President V.V. Putin has already said everything a long time ago.
Now we confirm once again that playing with fire (like little children playing with matches) is a dangerous thing for adult “uncles” and “aunties” who are entrusted with nuclear weapons in one or another Western country.
Russia has sufficient means of deterrence to repel attempts by potential aggressors to damage its sovereignty, Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service said 29 August 2024. "Today, as 75 years ago, any attempts by a potential aggressor to harm the sovereignty and progressive development of our country are invariably suppressed. For this, we have the most modern high-tech means of deterrence, and most importantly, unique specialists: scientists, engineers, designers, true patriots of our country," he said at a conference on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the test of the first domestic nuclear charge RDS-1.
The head of the SVR said that the domestic intelligence service has also accumulated "a wealth of experience in cooperation with the largest scientific institutes and leading corporations in Russia." "Such interaction continues today. And I am convinced that thanks to these connections, Russia will always be at the forefront of military-technical progress, and therefore will remain invulnerable to foreign dictates and any external threats," he noted.
The US authorities are ready to demonstrate the "nuclear club", but they will not succeed in intimidating Russia, Naryshkin said. "The subcritical experiment conducted by the United States on May 14 of this year in an underground laboratory for nuclear tests at a test site in the state of Nevada is an alarming circumstance. The experiment was not a full-scale nuclear test and does not formally constitute a violation of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty or the US moratorium on nuclear tests. At the same time, it clearly indicates the readiness of the United States to demonstrate the very same 'nuclear club' with which US President Harry Truman wanted to intimidate the leadership of the Soviet Union in 1945," Naryshkin said at a conference on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the test of the first domestic nuclear charge RDS-1.
"It didn't work then, and it won't work now," the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service emphasized. He noted with regret that the lessons of World War II and the Cold War "are quickly forgotten by those who benefit from it." Washington believes in its impunity and is trying to create an imbalance in the international security system, including in the nuclear sphere, Naryshkin said.
"The desire of totalitarian-liberal regimes of the West to impose their will on other countries in the international arena is also manifested in the nuclear sphere. Once again, as decades ago, the US is trying to create an imbalance in the international security system, believing in its impunity," he said. In this context, the head of the SVR recalled that Washington "withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, from the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, and refuses to fulfill its obligations under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty."
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