Ekipazh - Space-Based Jammer
Chairman of the US House of Representatives Intelligence Committee, Mike Turner, issued an extraordinary statement in which he warned of a “dangerous threat” to US national security, calling on President Biden to lift its confidentiality. The Economist magazine said that there was an uproar that swept the United States two days ago due to news about a mysterious Russian space weapon, and talked about 3 possibilities: the first was that it would be a nuclear weapon designed to destroy satellites, or a nuclear weapon that would be stationed in orbit, or a nuclear-powered satellite.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency had previously warned - in reports during 2022 - that Russia had worked to develop anti-satellite systems designed to neutralize US military and commercial space systems and target satellites with the aim of temporarily jamming and total destruction, and that it had tested an anti-satellite weapon with advanced capabilities.
Erin Banco, writing for Politico, reported 20 February 2024 "One reason U.S. officials didn’t widely disseminate intelligence about Russia’s efforts to develop a new space weapon: The administration was trying to start talks to convince Russia to back off the program. Senior intelligence and administration officials had been reaching out to Russia — along with India and China as possible intermediaries — about the project for weeks before it became public, according to a U.S. official and a person familiar with the outreach." The Economist magazine explained that many of the initial reports are contradictory, but there are 3 possibilities: either it is a “pop-up” nuclear weapon designed to destroy satellites that will be placed on Earth and only launched when its use is imminent, or a nuclear weapon that will be stationed in orbit, or it is a nuclear powered satellite -not a bomb per se, but onr uses nuclear energy to power another type of device.
Russia's plan to deploy a nuclear weapon in a full orbit, rather than a "partial" range in which the orbit is not completely around the Earth, would violates the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, and that nuclear explosions in space are prohibited under the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which Russia has signed in 1963. Regardless of legality, this weapon will be destructive and indiscriminate, because the intense radiation resulting from a nuclear explosion not only causes damage on Earth. In space, the electromagnetic pulse resulting from an orbital explosion can damage electronic devices on satellites in a large part of space.
When the United States conducted the high-altitude Starfish nuclear test in 1962, it damaged not only satellites in line of sight, but also those on the other side of the Earth because the radiation was directed by the planet's magnetic field, damaging Or destroy about a third of all satellites in low Earth orbit (Leo or Leo orbit).
If Russia carried out a similar explosion today, with about 8,300 active satellites in Leo, this will not only affect American satellites, but it will also affect Russian satellites, China and other countries, and could affect the International Space Station, which currently includes 3 Russian astronauts. And the Chinese station Tiangong, which currently includes a crew of 3 people.
The second theory of what the weapon might be - as the Economist says - is what was reported by the "PBS NewsHour" channel, which is that Russia intends to deploy a nuclear-powered satellite with an electronic warfare capability, in which the purpose of the electronic attack is to jam. Or simulate the signals sent or received by the targeted satellite, knowing that most of this type of attack is temporary.
Russia is known to have explored such systems, and there is “new evidence suggesting that Moscow may be developing high-powered space-based electronic warfare platforms to augment its existing ground-based platforms.” Dmitry Stefanovich (of the Russian Academy of Sciences) has referred to a project known as Zeus, which is a nuclear-powered "space tug" is planned for around 2030.
The idea of using a nuclear reactor to operate a satellite is old, as Washington placed a nuclear reactor in orbit in 1965, and then the (former) Soviet Union sent more than 40 satellites of this type. This allowed the satellites to carry more powerful radars, and today Russian systems will be allowed to carry More powerful jammers.
For its part, Space Review magazine reported that Russian documents explain that the nuclear reactors on the satellites allowed the installation of “jamming devices that operate in a wide range of frequencies.” If placed in special orbits that keep the satellite above the same point for longer periods, this will allow “Continued suppression of electronic systems in large areas.”
The magazine concluded that the attractiveness of this idea for Russia - as James Acton, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment, points out - is due to the “diffuse” satellites, such as the Starlink satellites of SpaceX, which are widely used by Ukraine and its armed forces, and which cannot be destroyed one by one. But a large-scale cyberattack might do the trick.
Erin Banco, writing for Politico, reported 20 February 2024 "Senior intelligence and administration officials have for more than a year tracked Russia’s progress on the production of its space-based nuclear antisatellite weapon, gathering information on its designs, its assembly and its tests." Reuters quoted analysts as saying that it is likely a nuclear-powered device to block, jam, or burn electronic devices inside satellites, rather than using explosive nuclear warheads to bring them down.
House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner isssued a statement on 14 February 2024. "Today, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has made available to all Members of Congress information concerning a serious national security threat. I am requesting that President Biden declassify all information relating to this threat so that Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat."
Within hours, US broadcaster ABC News broke the news that the threat was related to Russia and its plans to deploy nuclear arms in space. “This would not be to drop a nuclear weapon onto Earth but rather to possibly use against satellites,” the outlet wrote, citing two unnamed sources.
Two sources familiar with the matter told NBC News that the threat cited by Turner, R-Ohio, refers to a space-related capability from the Russian military. “People should not panic — that is unequivocal. People should not panic,” said Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., ranking member on the House Intelligence Committee. Turner “is right to highlight this issue, but it’s so sensitive that he is right now not publicly discussing it,” Himes told reporters. “And I don’t want people thinking that martians are landing or that your Wednesday is going to be ruined. But it is something that the Congress and the administration does need to address in the medium to long run.”
“I want to assure the American people there is no need for public alarm,” Speaker Mike Johnson said at the Capitol. “We are going to work together to address this matter, as we do all sensitive matters that are classified and beyond that, I’m not at liberty to disclose classified information and really can’t say much more, but we just want to assure everyone steady hands are at the wheel, we’re working on it, and there’s no need for alarm.”
Jim Newell noted that "Turner is one of the “Three Mikes”—along with Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers and Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul—whom Ukraine considers its top allies among House Republicans. With Speaker Mike Johnson dithering over what to do about Ukraine aid, Turner may have had a reason to amplify concerns about what Russia is up to.""
Dr. Paul Dorfman, chairman of the independent non-profit Nuclear Consulting Group and a former adviser to the UK ministry of defence on the dismantling of British nuclear submarines, said he found it “problematic” that classified US information had been leaked this way, and that he did not believe that Russia actually has those capabilities yet. “Turner has essentially leaked what is considered highly sensitive information. In that sense, he might endanger the provenance of that intelligence source,” he said.
Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, said at Wednesday's briefing that he reached out to the Gang of Eight, the top leaders from the House and Senate, earlier this week "to offer myself up for a personal briefing." "That's been on the books so I am a bit surprised that Congressman Turner came out publicly today, in advance of a meeting on the books, for me to go sit with him alongside our intelligence and defense professionals tomorrow," Sullivan told reporters.
He continued, "That’s his choice to do that. All I can tell you is that I’m focused on going to see him, sit with him, as well as the other House members of the Gang of Eight tomorrow and I’m not in a position to say anything further from this podium."
Sullivan declined to provide additional details about the briefing but made clear that he was the one who initiated the meeting. "I personally reached out to the Gang of Eight. It is highly unusual, in fact, for the national security adviser to do that, and I did that," he said. Asked whether the public should be concerned about the threat, Sullivan said, "In a way, that question is impossible to answer with a straight 'yes' ... because Americans understand that there are a range of threats and challenges in the world that we’re dealing with every single day, and those threats and challenges range from terrorism to state actors, and we have to contend with them."
"I am confident that President Biden, in the decisions that he has taken, is going to ensure the security of the American people going forward, and I will stand here at this podium and assert that, look you in the eye with confidence that we believe that we can and will and are protecting the national security of the United States and the American people," Sullivan said. A Democratic source familiar with the threat told NBC News: "This is a serious issue that could lead to a destabilizing situation and a national security threat."
White House national security spokesman John Kirby publicly confirmed the intelligence on Thursday 15 February 2024. "I know that Chairman Turner’s letter to House members and his subsequent post on social media about a national security threat has prompted a lot of questions. Now, while I am limited by how much I can share about the specific nature of the threat, I can confirm that it is related to an anti-satellite capability that Russia is developing.
"I want to be clear about a couple of things right off the bat. First, this is not an active capability that’s been deployed. And though Russia’s pursuit of this particular capability is troubling, there is no immediate threat to anyone’s safety. We are not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on Earth. That said, we’ve been closely monitoring this Russian activity and we will continue to take it very seriously.
"President Biden has been kept fully informed and regularly informed by his national security team, including today. He has directed a series of initial actions, including additional briefings to congressional leaders, direct diplomatic engagement with Russia, with our allies and our partners as well, and with other countries around the world who have interests at stake.
"The intelligence community has serious concerns about a — about a broad declassification of this intelligence. They also assess that starting with private engagement rather than immediately publicizing the intelligence could be a much more effective approach. We agree with that, which is consistent, of course, with the manner in which we have conducted downgrades of information in the past. This administration has put a lot of focus on doing that in a strategic way, a deliberate way — and in particular, when it comes to Russia.
"And there’s two things that we always do first when we consider about downgrades. One, we work with the intelligence community to conduct a thorough scrub of that intelligence to make sure that we are protecting sources and methods. And, two, we sequence our private diplomacy with our public disclosure to ensure the maximum effect.
"In keeping with that approach, our National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is meeting this afternoon with House leadership and committee chairs and rankers this afternoon to brief them on the latest intelligence and our analysis of it. And we will brief the Senate when they are back in session on the 25th of February....
"... our general knowledge of Russian pursuit of this kind of capability goes back many, many months, if not a few years. But only in recent weeks now has the intelligence community been able to assess with a higher sense of confidence exactly how Russia continues to pursue it...."
Asked whether it a nuclear weapon, a nuclear-powered weapon, or a nuclear-capable weapon, Kirby responded "I’m not going to be able to go into any more detail than I did in my opening statement. It is an anti-satellite capability that they’re developing. And beyond that, I will not go."
Kirby's statement seemed to push back on Turner’s call for the administration to declassify this information and the fact that he made that desire public. But the intelligence community put out a notice about an hour ago that the language was preapproved by the Biden administration.
Kirby said "We have been very careful and deliberate about what we decide to declassify, downgrade, and share with the public. ... we had already begun that process — the process of analyzing it, of making sure we weren’t violating sources and methods, informing members of Congress. The President directed the team to — to start to inform allies and partners, including — not — not that Russia is an ally and partner, but to include diplomatic engagement with Russia on this. And then, we would eventually get to a point where we would downgrade and declassify. So, we were already on the — sort of the arc of that — that — that process when, yesterday, this information regrettably found its way into the public domain in advance of our ability to do this according to process.... We are in the process of consulting with allies and partners. We are in the process with engaging with Russia about this. And we think — I know it’s a crazy thought here, but we kind of think it’s important to follow that process and do it the right way, rather than just rush to put something out in the public domain."
Fraser Jackson, FRANCE 24’s correspondent in Washington, noted the numerous sources stressing that the new weapon did not pose an immediate threat to the US or its interests. “This is not something that has been launched – but is something that Russia is looking into,” he said. He also said that the shared intelligence did not appear to be new, and that at least one member of the intelligence committee had acknowledged that he had known about it for at least two years.
There was some speculation that the spur for developing this weapon was the use of U.S.-launched satellites from SpaceX by Ukraine, the Starlink satellites. But much of the reporting about the supposed alleged details of this capability came from anonymous officials.
Dell Cameron writing for Wired proposed that the " surprise disclosure of a national security threat by the House Intelligence chair was part of an effort to block legislation that aimed to limit cops and spies from buying Americans’ private data.... The impetus for killing the deal, WIRED has learned, was an amendment that would end the government’s ability to pay US companies for information rather than serving them with a warrant.... Turner and other HPSCI members were engaged in a floundering but possibly effective scheme to whip votes against any potential privacy enhancements, floating vague claims about an “urgent” threat against the US. ... four advocacy organizations signed a letter calling for Turner to step down from his role as Intel chair over what they called a “near-panic” started purely for “political gain.” The letter, first reported by Politico, was signed by members of groups FreedomWorks, Due Process Institute, Demand Progress, and Restore the Fourth."
On Tuesday 13 February 2024 the Senate passed a bill which includes $60 billion to back Ukraine in its war with Russia, something many Republicans have come out against in recent months. The new bugaboo about Russia's supposed plans to destroy American satellites with nuclear arms is aimed at ramming a $60 billion funding package for Ukraine through US Congress, military analyst and editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine Igor Korotchenko told Sputnik on 15 February 2024. Even though the package in question was earlier passed in the US Senate as part of a $95 billion bill, the chances of the House approving the legislation is considered slim.
The White House was trying to encourage the Congress to vote for a bill allocating money to Ukraine through a closed briefing on a "serious threat to national security," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday. The US Congress will hold a closed-door briefing on a "serious threat to national security" on Thursday. The media, citing sources, reported that the threat is related to Russia. "I cannot comment on that at all. Let's wait for the briefing to see if there will be any information. But it is obvious that the White House is trying ... to get Congress to vote on a bill to give money [to Ukraine]. It is obvious. What kind of tricks the White House will resort to, so to speak, well, we will see," Peskov told reporters.
A few sketchy details trickled out about what the statement meant over the course of the day, including a report from Politico that three people familiar with the matter said the threat was “related to Russia and space,” and that the intelligence might have something to do with Russian weaponization of orbital systems, according to one of them. Hours later, the news escalated. “Confirming that the intel is related to Russia’s attempts to develop an antisatellite nuclear weapon for use in space. The U.S. has been concerned for more than a year about this. But the intel suggests there’s been new movement from Moscow on this,” wrote Politico reporter Erin Banco.
Alexander Smith at NBC reported "Three sources familiar with the matter told NBC News that Russia is developing a nuclear space-based weapon designed to target American satellites. This weapon is not yet operational, the sources said, but the intelligence was enough to prompt Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, to ask the White House to declassify information about an unnamed “serious national security threat.”... many experts suspect, this is a nuclear-powered satellite carrying electronic weapons, which could cause havoc on Earth by crippling satellites that drive everything from weather forecasting and phone calls to wars and the global economy.... There has also been speculation that this is all linked to a classified Russian satellite, named Cosmos 2575, launched last week."
Pavel Podvig said the satellite launched on February 9, Cosmos-2575, is "said to be a Razbeg small optical reconnaissance satellite. Sun-syncronous orbit suggests that it is".
“Wow. Amazing,” posted theocratic fascist Matt Walsh. “A day after the Senate passed a massively unpopular 95 billion dollar foreign aid package with billions for Ukraine, and a week after Putin gave one of the most widely viewed interviews of all time to Tucker Carlson, there is now a ‘serious national security threat’ related to Russia.”
“What ‘convenient’ timing … the development ‘conveniently’ comes as the House considers passing a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine,” added @CollinRugg, pointing to reporting from Fox News who had a source confirm that the threat was related to Russia, could be “of grave serious, potentially,” but isn’t “immediate.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on 14 February 2024 that the alleged Russia-related "national security threat" is not an active capability, but a potential one that Washington is taking "very, very seriously" and discussing with its allies. "This is not an active capability, but it is potential one that we're taking very, very seriously, and I would expect that we'll have more to say soon, in fact, very soon, so stay tuned for that, and of course, we're also conferring with allies and partners on this issue," Blinken said during a joint press conference with Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama in Tirana, Albania.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg commenting on the development said on 15 February 2024 that NATO is constantly monitoring any potential threats. "What I can say is that in NATO, we are constantly exchanging intelligence between NATO allies, and we are always monitoring all potential threats in all domains from all directions," Stoltenberg told reporters.
US Space Force Gen. Stephen N. Whiting, US Space Command commander, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington, DC, 29 February 2024. “USSPACECOM must protect and defend our space systems to ensure they are available against the growing threats arrayed against us,” he said. “Inherent in this responsibility is our ability to protect the Joint Force from space-enabled attack.” "Russia’s counterspace capabilities represent real threats to the space domain, our national security, and this Command’s ability to respond decisively to protect and defend our interests and those of our Allies and Partners. Despite their struggles in Ukraine and economic sanctions, Russia continues to pursue a suite of counterspace weaponry, from electromagnetic warfare systems, including directed energy weapons and satellite communications jammers, offensive cyberspace capabilities, and on-orbit and ground-based anti-satellite systems that exist for one clear purpose. These weapons are intended to disrupt, threaten, and destroy space targets or otherwise deny freedom of action in space. Russia views its counterspace capabilities as a means to deter aggression from adversaries reliant on space."
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