Battle of Kursk II - 15 August 2024 - Day 109
In Russia, by order of the Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov, a Coordination Council was created to increase the effectiveness of troops in covering the state border in the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions. Its first meeting was held today. The council included deputy defense ministers, heads of military command bodies, representatives of the General Staff and heads of regions. The Council will regulate the build-up of troops in the event of a border breach. The key task is to provide the troops with weapons. To implement this, the Council will meet at least once a week; The tasks of the Coordination Council will also include interdepartmental cooperation, engineering arrangements, and assistance in evacuation. The Council for Military Security of Border Territories does not replace operational control of troop actions - this remains the task of the command of the "North" group and the General Staff.
"I expect that information from the field will be reported promptly and truthfully," Belousov emphasized. It was also reported that Russia will transfer additional forces to the Belgorod region to protect the border, this was stated by Defense Minister Belousov. And this is a strong move on the part of the minister. "This is primarily about increasing the efficiency of the troop command and control system [...], as well as the allocation of additional forces and resources that will be directed to carry out the main tasks," he said at a meeting with the Belgorod governor.
NOELreports that another large column of Russian forces was reportedly destroyed in the Kursk region, this time near Korenevo, according to Russian media. This follows an incident a week ago when a HIMARS strike hit a column near Rylsk in the Kursk region
On 16 August 2024 in Russia's Kursk Oblast, a Ukrainian HIMARS successfully dropped the bridge over the Seym River at Glushkovo, effectively cutting off Russian troops in the town. Russian forces south of the river now rely on a winding route over two smaller bridges, already targeted by Ukrainian missiles.
Ukraine’s continuing incursion played to its strengths: Movement, tactical innovation and the ability to exploit small successes to bigger achievements. Ukraine also managed to leverage the limited resources it has and a picture is now emerging of new arms used in novel ways that have caught Russian forces off-guard and kept them off balance.
Both Russia and Ukraine extensively use drones of all types for reconnaissance and attack. But Ukraine’s innovation is to combine attack drones with electronic warfare units that jam the signals of Russian drones, blinding them. This allowed Ukrainian drones to attack targets and move ground units forward. Once there, the jammers were moved up, and the process repeated in a leapfrog manner allowing Ukrainian forces to advance relatively intact and leaving Russian military planners with very little in the way of information about Ukrainian movements. This innovation, combined with the extensive use of small “sabotage” units, designed to be highly mobile, penetrating deep behind Russian lines and spreading maximum chaos, helped confuse the Russian high command who made bad use of local units, resulting in their mass surrender or destruction.
Russia had always been very clear that the use of foreign weapon systems on Russian soil would not be tolerated. The Ukrainian attack on Russian-held Crimea in late June, which destroyed part of Russia’s deep space network, used US-made ATACM short-range missiles. This provoked a furious response from Russia, whose officials issued a formal diplomatic rebuke to the United States. British Challenger tanks were used by Ukraine in Kursk
If Western weapons systems were used in Kursk that could be another red line. It is this gradual erosion of what is unacceptable to Russia that is most dangerous. Sooner or later, Russia will have to draw an actual red line, stating what serious repercussions the West and/or Ukraine would face if it was crossed. If its red line goes ignored, there could be disastrous consequences for all and the widening of the conflict.
At the moment, President Putin has called Ukraine’s incursion an “anti-terror” operation. If Ukraine’s foothold gets any bigger, he will have to declare it an invasion. If this happens, Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, which is a Russian-led alliance of post-Soviet countries, will be invoked. This article, similar to NATO’s Article 5, concerns collective security. Attack one member and all the other members are treaty-obligated to help. NATO would have to step in or see Ukraine destroyed, the war widening dramatically into a general conflict between two blocs.
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