Battle of Kursk II - 10 August 2024 - Day 5
"It's really hard to describe the scope of personal humiliation that Ukraine is (once again) inflicting on Vladimir Putin with this Kursk offensive. If you understand the way of thinking of an ignorant Russian chauvinist and supremacist, you're probably trying to comprehend that, too. Those dirty khokhols, who are no one and nothing, not a real country, who owe the Holy Russian Empire everything they ever had, the worthless peasants and ridiculous swine, the lackeys born to aspire towards being considered Russians, too, the dirt under the Tsar's imperial boots... This goes soooo deep down into Putin's insecurity, authority, and the way he fundamentally sees the world around him." wrote Illia Ponomarenko.
Ukraine reported the lowest number of "combat engagements" on its territory since June 10. That could be a possible sign its incursion was helping to relieve pressure on other parts of the sprawling frontline where Moscow's troops had been advancing. Ukrainian troops had advanced as far as 35 kilometers (21 miles) into the region, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War, although, they reportedly do not have full control of the area.
Military Informant wrote that reports began to appear late in the day about an attempt by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break through in the Belovsky District of the Kursk Region. Note that the area is located far south of Sudzha and is "not burdened" with any serious transport routes. The entry of large forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces there, especially in the format of a full-fledged brigade, as rumors are now spreading, seems unlikely. There are also reports of enemy actions in the area of ??the Kolotilovka checkpoint already in the Belgorod Region. At the moment, there is no adequate information from the ground due to the night time and small settlements in the area. It is possible that fear simply had too big eyes, but in the current circumstances, it is naturally impossible to completely rule out an attempt by the enemy to enter. There is no objective confirmation of breakthroughs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades by 20-30-50 km, tank columns of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, evacuations, etc. It is not exactly known what the situation is in the Russian Kursk region. The overwhelming majority of information to clarify the situation on the ground comes from Russian sources, while the Ukrainian side effectively maintains a regime of information silence, not disclosing data on its actions, since this could pose a danger to the defenders of the Defense Forces. Given the security situation, one of the most authoritative portals that regularly records events on a combat map, Deepstate, refused to clarify the current information, as this could threaten the safety of Ukrainian soldiers. Instead, the portal decided to provide data with a certain time lag.
Of particular note are NASA's FIRMS heat maps , which in civilian times record high temperature data via satellites and help track fires. During wartime, this data also helps determine where exactly combat operations are taking place, as FIRMS satellites record explosions and fires after landing. Thus, according to FIRMS data over the last 24 hours, military actions continue over an area of approximately 1.5 thousand km.
Russian troops in the areas of Ivashkovsky, Malaya Loknya, Olgovka in the Kursk region prevented attempts by mobile groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to break through deep into Russian territory. This was reported by the Russian Defense Ministry. "The Armed Forces continue to repel the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attempt to invade the territory of the Russian Federation. Over the course of the day, active actions by units of the North group of forces and the reserves that arrived, strikes by army aviation, and artillery fire in the areas of Ivashkovsky, Malaya Loknya, and Olgovka prevented attempts by enemy mobile groups to break through deep into Russian territory," they said.
On the night of 10 August 2024, the largest counter-terrorist operation (CTO) regime in history was introduced in Russia. It was established in the three border regions of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk as Ukraine presses on with its biggest attack on Russian soil since the war began almost two and a half years ago. Russia deployed additional troops and equipment, including tanks, rocket launchers and aviation units to try to stop Ukraine's advancing troops.
Security forces and the military are given enhanced emergency powers during "counter-terror operations," allowing them to relocate residents, control phone communications and requisition vehicles. The move, according to the National Anti-Terrorism Committee, is aimed at countering Ukraine's "unprecedented attempt to destabilize the situation in a number of regions." Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB intelligence service took the decision "in order to ensure the safety of citizens and suppress the threat of terrorist acts being carried out by the enemy's sabotage groups," the committee said. Measures included potentially moving residents, transport restrictions, enhanced security, and wiretapping.
At least 16,000 civilians have been evacuated from border areas due to the Ukrainian incursion. Russia has evacuated over 76,000 citizens from the Russian-Ukrainian border in Kursk Oblast as Ukraine continued its incursion in the region, Russian-state-controlled media Tass reported, citing the head of Russia’s Emergency Ministry Artem Sharov.
Russia's army, which confirmed it was still fighting off the Ukrainian incursion, said Kyiv initially despatched around 1,000 troops, and more than two dozen armoured combat vehicles and tanks. Though it since claimed to have destroyed around five times as many pieces of military hardware. Both sides have repeatedly been accused of inflating the number of enemy losses while downplaying their own setbacks.
Russia's nuclear agency Rosatom said that Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region poses a "direct threat" to the region's nuclear power plant. "The actions of the Ukrainian army created a direct threat not only to the Kursk nuclear power plant, but to the entire nuclear energy industry," Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev was cited by Russian state news agency RIA as saying. He made the comments during a call with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IARA), Rafael Grossi. "At the moment there is a real danger of strikes and provocations by the Ukrainian army," Rosatom said in a separate statement.
Similar accusations have been made against Russian forces who are occupying the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the largest in Europe.
IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog, called for restraint from Ukraine and Russia on Friday as fighting intensified in Russia's Kursk region, home to one of the country's largest nuclear power stations. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said "maximum restraint" was needed to prevent a nuclear disaster amid the ongoing conflict near the Kursk nuclear plant. "I would like to appeal to all sides to exercise maximum restraint in order to avoid a nuclear accident with the potential for serious radiological consequences," Grossi said in a statement released by the IAEA. "I am personally in contact with the relevant authorities of both countries and will continue to be seized of the matter."
Gressel, a military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, noted in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine that Moscow could send additional forces to the Kursk region, which would first contain the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and then wear them down. The Ukrainian Armed Forces' attack on the Kursk region could be the beginning of Kyiv's military end, and it could lead to Ukraine suffering even greater territorial losses.
"If Ukraine seeks to hold the territory for several months, this will entail military expenditures that can hardly be covered. Extending the front line is primarily beneficial to Russia. It has more weapons, ammunition and people that it can use on a wider front," the Austrian specialist believes. In his opinion, the surprise effect threatens to quickly turn against Ukraine.
The expert noted that Moscow could send additional forces to the Kursk region, which would first hold back the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and then wear them down. He pointed out that in the meantime, Kiev is running out of resources in the Donbass, and if the front collapses, Ukraine will have to abandon the territories in the Kursk region one way or another and redeploy them to the east again. "There, things could reach even greater territorial losses," Gressel noted.
The expert recalled that in Germany, the camp of Sahra Wagenknecht, who opposes arms supplies to Kyiv, enjoys considerable popularity. "Ukraine may look like an unreliable daredevil. Berlin and Washington would curtail their support. Maneuvers in the Kursk region could be the beginning of the military end of Ukraine," Gressel said. "Ukraine is in a difficult situation," he stated. "Due to the insignificant military assistance from its partners, it cannot win the war by purely traditional means, so it is trying to resort to risky operations. But in doing so, it risks completely losing the support of the West," the expert believes.
"The fact that HIMARS rocket launchers were used indicates that the attack was coordinated with the United States. Usually, until now, the coordinates of the targets have always been coordinated with the Americans," Gressel said. In his opinion, the further reaction will depend on the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' actions. "Failure will not make it easier for Chancellor [Olaf Scholz] to send the next tranche of aid [to Ukraine]," he believes. "Ukraine is not acting from a position of strength; it is inferior to the Russian army in personnel and ammunition. In Donbas, the Russian offensive continues unstoppably. Many of the [Ukrainian Armed Forces] brigades involved there are quite exhausted and are waiting to be replaced by fresh forces, which, however, are currently involved in the Kursk region," Gressel said.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces' attack on the Kursk region is connected with Kyiv's desire to strengthen its position in future ceasefire talks. This opinion was expressed to a TASS correspondent by Liu Jun, executive director of the Center for Russian Studies at the East China Normal University in Shanghai. "This offensive will inevitably lead to a delay in the advancement of the peace process. <...> The Ukrainian Armed Forces have launched an offensive against Russia's Kursk region in order to strengthen Kyiv's position in future negotiations," the expert said. In his opinion, in this regard, the Russian army will continue its offensive in strategic directions in eastern Ukraine in order to destroy important transport routes and supply centers for the Ukrainian army.
According to the expert, Ukraine’s actions will not bring about any significant effect. This attack, the expert pointed out, also shows that Ukraine is worried about the ongoing offensive of the Russian army. In addition, Kyiv sees signs that the US may stop supporting Ukraine and is trying to prevent this. In this regard, the expert believes that further escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be expected before the election of a new US president.
Military Informant reported tha by the end of the fifth day of the invasion, there have been no significant changes in the configuration of the front line in the Kursk region . Not only the invading enemy forces have begun digging, mining, and building a new line of defense, but also the approaching Russian reserves, thereby stabilizing the current line of contact .
"In essence, both sides are now doing similar things - consolidating where they are and probing each other's positions before larger-scale active actions. Despite the presence of certain reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the border area, no "second fronts" have yet opened , such as a strike on Rylsk across the border, or an attempt to divert attention in another area altogether. It should be understood that any offensive is an exchange of the existing initiative for time. This very time has already come to an end for the enemy - the longer the possible introduction of new reserves into the battle is delayed, the less success they will have and the more tragic the consequences of such an introduction will be for them.
"At the moment, even if we assume that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to break through the border towards Rylsk, this will not lead to any significant results for them. The surprise effect of the first couple of days has already been irretrievably lost . The reserves of the Russian Armed Forces that arrived plugged the gaps in the defense, and now an attempt to repeat the drive in armored cars past the half-empty rare strongholds will end disastrously for such riders.
"If the Ukrainian Armed Forces had any serious reserves, as well as plans to use them to reach at least Lgov, not to mention Kurchatov, then it made sense to use them already on the second, or at least the third day, when the Russian Armed Forces desperately lacked strength and coordination in the direction, but this never happened.
"To summarize : the Russian and Ukrainian Armed Forces are strengthening opposite each other, the enemy has not committed the available reserves, and their use now will not give the same effect as in the first couple of days. Therefore, it is not so much the appearance of additional forces in the existing direction that should be feared, but an attempt to repeat the unexpected attack in another place, not necessarily even in the Kursk region. The next phase of the border battle will be the final formation of a new front line, the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from weak and remote positions and consolidation in more stable ones, from where they will now have to be picked out for a long time and with heavy fighting . All this is a consequence of the fact that the threat of invasion (for various reasons) was ignored until the very last moment , which will now result in the waste of reserves, the death of many people and the destruction of infrastructure."
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