Battle of Kursk II - 09 August 2024 - Day 4
A Ukrainian fighter posted a selfie from 10 kilometers out of Kursk, in front of the milepost, holding the flag of 14th regiment, Nightingale battalion. But the image had been improved, by changing the actual distance from 108 km to 10 km.
On the fourth day of the invasion, Ukraine finally stopped within the framework of its breakthrough of the first two days. Thanks to the arriving reserves of the Russian Armed Forces, the Ukrainian troops sharply lost the pace of advance and began to dig in where they could, which means a possible refusal from further active offensive actions. The plan of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to try to create a point of tension and force the Russian Armed Forces to pull their reserves there, worked partially - the reserves went. However, there is no evidence that this transfer of forces has somehow affected other sections of the front.
The Russian Armed Forces are launching a powerful counterattack in the Kursk region, Russian and Ukrainian media and Telegram channels report. Sources report that the settlements of Malaya Loknya and Kazachya Loknya have already ended up in the "gray zone." Both sides report heavy fighting in the city of Sudzha and the village of Kruglen'koye.
Scenes of destruction in Russia's Kursk region continue to be shared online following the surprise cross-border incursion. Residents of the region shared videos that appear to show dead Russian soldiers among destroyed military vehicles scattered along a local road. Unconfirmed reports spoke of a Russian column having been destroyed in the Kursk region with many casualties. Video circulating on social media showed what appeared to be many burned-out military transport vehicles on the side of a road in or near the town of Rylsk. The strike was carried out by GMLRS missiles from the HIMARS MLRS. Estimate the real size of the convoy of dozens of closely parked trucks, and understand how lucky they were in this situation - the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck with all the missiles in approximately the same place, and not along the convoy, which allowed many vehicles at the head to escape the strike.
Military Informant channel on Telegram reported "Regarding the column destroyed at night near Rylsk. Since there are already photos of HIMARS MLRS missile fragments found in the Kursk region, we can confidently say that the column standing 40 km from the border was hit by them, and not by any kamikaze drones. Moreover, the nature of the consequences there speaks for itself.
"In order to hit a column with a fire weapon aimed at a significant distance and adjusted by satellite navigation, it is necessary for this very column, like a herd of dumb sheep, to stand in the open and not move anywhere until a reconnaissance drone finds it, transmits information and they work on it. Moreover, people were also left sitting in the backs of the parked trucks, which turned the destruction of the column into a real massacre. Locals passing by have already filmed everything, since the consequences remained until the morning. "All this is a consequence not only of the impenetrable stupidity of a specific person who organized the movement of a column near the border for the third year, and then its standstill, but also a consequence of the general situation of chaotic concentrating of reserves in the breakthrough area, for which they were not prepared at all. This is already another parallel drawn with the fall of 2022 in the Kharkov region, where the enemy also hit the columns with reserves with HIMARS that were going to plug the front. Once again, we see no point in moaning about the inability to learn. We are simply describing the facts, perhaps someone will remember it as it should not."
"In essence, a full-scale counterattack by the Russian Armed Forces began this morning. All the main units, including special forces and Wagner as part of the Russian army units, were secretly arriving from their locations all this time, deploying, receiving tasks and "cutting out" combat areas. The Lancet operators, the crews of the Ka-52 and Mi-28, the Su-25 and Su-34 aircraft, as well as Russian special forces, border guards and in general all those involved who had to fight for three days in the conditions that were there, showed absolute heroism," writes "Military Chronicle".
The channel's authors also explained why it is better not to expect an immediate reaction or change in the situation in the Kursk region in the near future. "Why? Because everything takes time. Only in movies can cosmic rays and lasers change the picture on the battlefield in seconds. In the reality of the Kursk region, it will take at least several days to deploy reserves. Combat work is already underway - the main part of the sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Ukrainian troops, which managed to slip through the roads, is being knocked out, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have managed to crawl out into the plantings both along the roads and at a relative distance from them. They will have to be picked out of these forests in the near future," the source emphasized.
Attacking from airbases in the Russian Federation protected by the United States, Rrussians bombed Zaruts'ke, Bilovody and Yunakivka in Sumy region seven times, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information at 16:00 on 9 August 2024. At night, Ukrainian drones attacked the Lipetsk airfield which was used by the Russian aviation against the Kursk offensive. The bombs stored at the base exploded. The exact damages inflicted to the Russian enemy needs clarification but judging from the video.
David Hambling reported that Ukraine’s breakthrough seemed to have been achieved by massed used of jammers to knock out Russian drones and massed drones to break through the lines. French and Polish mercenaries have been spotted in the Kursk direction. This was stated by the Deputy Chief of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, commander of the special forces "Akhmat" Major General Apti Alaudinov. “We are noticing that there are a lot of French people, a lot of Poles, that is, a lot of foreigners,” he said in a commentary for military correspondent Semyon Pegov on his Telegram channel.
Alaudinov said the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Kursk direction is led by the NATO bloc headquarters command. "Of course, it must be stated that this operation is being led by the command of the NATO bloc headquarters directly. This is a clear question, because the Ukrainians themselves are unlikely to be able to formulate or do something like this," he said in a commentary for Pegov.
Western countries supervised the massive attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) on the border territories of the Kursk region, in particular, they provided intelligence data, drew up a plan and prepared armed groups for the attack. This was stated by military expert from the LPR, Colonel Vitaly Kiselev, on the air of the Soloviev Live TV channel. "The Kursk region was of no interest in terms of military operations, but the terrorists had to do it. What was the provocation for? From the point of view of geography, the formation of Ukrainian society, they thought that they were liberating cities that belonged to Ukraine. They prepared the administrations, they prepared the people who would lead. The West supported them, Western instructors prepared (the attack). The system was very well developed: hidden supply of ammunition, air defense, electronic warfare, and UAVs were deployed. Intelligence was provided by the NATO bloc, because they saw that there was no concentration of Russian units there," Kiselev said.
Many among the Ukrainian military are unhappy with the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kursk region. This was reported in his podcast by the deputy editor-in-chief of the Bild newspaper Paul Ronzheimer, citing his own sources. "I hear a lot of skepticism and a lot of criticism from the people I've spoken to," he said. He said "many people in [Ukrainian] military circles are saying, 'How can it be that we're conducting such a big offensive there, but we have huge problems in the Donbas. We need weapons, ammunition, and, most of all, people there.'"
"One of Ukraine's biggest problems right now is that it lacks soldiers in certain areas of the front. That's why the military I speak to is surprised that there is an offensive there [in the Kursk region]," Ronzheimer noted. He pointed out that another question many are asking is: "How long will it last?" "Many in Ukrainian military circles are wondering whether this is a region that can really be held for a long time. What will happen with logistics, is there any possibility of supplying soldiers there, supplying them with ammunition," Ronzheimer said. According to the deputy editor-in-chief of Bild, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to hold the occupied areas "for weeks or months."
Intelschizo reported "Ukrainian forces have deployed mines along the road from Suzhda to Belitsa, preventing direct access for Russians. (Highlighted in Orange) The Lgov-Belgorod Railway also traverse is the same area with several Rail Bridges there's no mention of them in the reporting though. Personally it is likely they are mining the road. They're also deploying mines near the bridges. An Likely indicator that Ukraine have done this yesterday with the announcement of several Railway stations being closed by the Russian Railways a station that was on that list is the Psel train station in Giri and Sudzha indicating the whole line is shut down. The placement of mines along the strip will delay the Russians and or force them to traverse further north further delaying a Russian response from Belgorod and Kharkiv making Russian forces have to practically go all the way up to Kursk and come at Ukrainian forces from the north."
"Russia has lost control of the Lgov-Belgorod Rail line. A Ukrainian Battalion-sized element from the 22nd Mechanized Brigade supported by roughly a battalion-sized element from the 88th Mechanized Brigade reached the tracks yesterday afternoon in Sudzha. Interestingly Ukrainian forces made an attempt with the 82nd Air Assault Brigade also roughly a battalion-sized element to take the town of Korenevo. Korenevo is an interesting choice because it has a rail line that goes from Lgov directly into Ukraine to the town of Vorozhba. The tracks from Vorozhba go directly to Sumy and Kyiv.
"It is Highly Likely that securing the town of Korenevo is a must objective for Ukrainian forces. This will allow them to establish a direct rail line from Ukraine into Kursk Oblast and be able to bring in significant quantities of equipment and supplies. I think the difference between the Kursk Incursion being a Raid in Force vs a Offensive rests on the capture of Korenevo."
The authors of the Telegram channel “Visioner” expressed the opinion that the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kursk region is an attempt to probe “gaps” in the Russian defense and “mirror” the Kharkov operation. “The full-fledged transfer of the war to Russian territory, the destruction of a Russian city with Russian weapons, the withdrawal of Russian reserves and aviation to the Kursk region are serious goals, the achievement of which will completely shade and balance the peace talks being prepared for the fall,” the channel’s authors believe.
The attack in the Kursk region was completely unexpected for the top leadership of Russia and Ukraine's Western partners. It has a very destabilizing influence on the leadership of the Kremlin. Hristo Grozev, an investigative journalist and head of the Bellingcat project, said this in an interview with Suspilno .
According to Grozev, the fighting in the Kursk region came as a surprise not only to the top leadership of Russia. "It turns out that the Ukrainian General Staff was preparing this operation without coordinating it - and this was done on purpose - even with Western partners, so that there would be no leak. I myself spoke with representatives of several Western countries, who were surprised by the scale and preparation, the long preparation of this counterattack on the territory of Russia," said Grozev.
At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not officially comment on the situation in the Kursk region. As Grozev noted, although the first reaction from the partners was that this was most likely some kind of minimal psychological operation aimed at creating tension among the Russian population so that they would understand the price of war, after the first two nights of the counterattack, they changed attitude. "They believe that there is a chance that these positions will be consolidated, and this would become a serious lever for future negotiations, even if only the Ukrainian side, the Armed Forces, is established on this territory," the investigator said.
He added that Putin's entourage was waiting to see where the offensive of the Russian army would go before the American elections, in order to have some boundaries in order to start negotiations with the new American president or female president about some kind of freezing of the conflict, but in the territories they have already conquered. Instead, the original plan of how to negotiate peace after the election of a new president in the United States is now losing its meaning.
"So I think it has a very, very destabilizing effect on the leadership of the Kremlin. In the coming days, if the Ukrainian army remains in these positions or continues to move further, we will see more and more chaos and a general loss of concentration in Russia's strategy. So it is much more important than it seems from the side," said Grozev.
The New York Times (NYT) notes that the Ukrainian military is heavily stretched along the line of combat contact, and it is completely unclear how the Ukrainian Armed Forces' sortie in the Kursk region will improve Kyiv's dire situation on other sections of the front. In addition, the Ukrainian army has few reserves, and continues to suffer from a shortage of weapons and ammunition, the newspaper states. An unnamed Ukrainian official, speaking to the NYT, said the strike was aimed at "diverting Russian troops from other parts of the front" where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering losses. At the same time, military experts cited by the newspaper believe that Russia will send forces not involved in the SVO to suppress the Ukrainian attack.
The foray of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) into the border areas of the Kursk region is short-term and is intended to demonstrate the usefulness of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for external sponsors. This opinion was expressed in a conversation with a TASS correspondent by former Thai Foreign Minister, former Ambassador to the USSR and Russia Kasit Pirom. "First of all, I think the purpose of all this is to show the world that Zelensky is still useful in order to gain support in the future. Secondly, I think these actions are very short-term, since they do not have enough reserves of forces. This could be a kind of PR campaign," he said.
The Russian Defense Ministry reported that over the course of a day, the Russian Armed Forces thwarted attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to conduct raids deep into Russian territory. The military inflicted fire damage on the Ukrainian Armed Forces' personnel and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Dar'ino, Gogolevka, Melovoy, Nikolsky and on the western outskirts of Sudzha. Aviation hit enemy reserves in the Sumy region. BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), artillery guns and heavy tracked vehicles have been sent to build up forces in the Sudzhansky district. An additional group of rescuers from the Russian Emergencies Ministry has been sent to the Kursk Region . They are evacuating the population to safe areas. The team also includes explosive experts who will defuse explosive devices.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that it was building up forces, who were engaged in active hostilities against Ukrainian formations in the Sudzha district of the Kursk Region, by sending tanks and other heavy tracked military equipment there. The ministry also posted a footage showing the movement of the military equipment toward the Kursk Region.
Fighting continues for the fourth day in the Kursk region of Russia . The General Staff of the Armed Forces does not comment on this operation, its goals and scope. According to the American Institute for the Study of War, on August 8, Ukrainian forces advanced 35 km deep from Sumy Oblast. All this debunks theses about Russia's military power, shows that Ukraine knows how to surprise at the front, and strengthens Kyiv ahead of possible peace talks, foreign media write. In more detail, says Suspilne .
The Wall Street Journal published an analysis of the operation and an analysis of its likely goals and consequences. In the article, Nick Reynolds, a military analyst at the Royal Institute of Combined Armed Forces in London, suggests that Russia may now have problems with the supply of its troops near Kharkiv region and that the Russian Federation will have to withdraw part of its forces from eastern Ukraine to protect Kursk region. However, Reynolds is skeptical about the opening of another direction of fighting for the Armed Forces. "They [Ukrainians] need to stabilize the front line in Donbas," he says.
According to Rob Lee, a scientist at the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies, it is not a fact that this operation will force the Russian Federation to transfer military units from eastern Ukraine to the Kursk region. Rather, the analyst says, the Russians will send part of their forces there from the east of Kharkiv Oblast.
Finnish publication Yle interviewed OSINT analyst Emil Castehelmi. He says that he is not sure that the Russians will not be able to stop the offensive on the Kursk region and also considers it unlikely that Russia will have to withdraw a large number of troops from eastern Ukraine for this.
Retired Polish general, ex-commander of special forces Roman Polko, in a comment to the Polish Press Agency , said that the actions in Kursk should contribute to the fact that Ukraine's partners will finally stop fearing escalation from Russia: "It is good that Ukraine is taking actions that surprise the Russians. West must already remove all restrictions and declare less, and supply Ukraine with military equipment more".
The British publication The Telegraph names three possible goals of Ukraine: distracting the Russians from the offensive in Donetsk region, discord within Russia and "advancement of the agreement on the exchange of territories during future negotiations."
The German Spiegel also assumes that the purpose of the operation is a stronger position of Ukraine at the negotiations, the possibility of which, the publication writes, President Zelenskyi has not rejected recently. But in order for the regions of the Kursk region to become a kind of bargaining chip, Ukraine will have to keep them until the negotiations, and it is not yet known whether this can be done. Spiegel also noted the successful planning of the operation — unlike last year's counteroffensive of the Armed Forces, this time "the Ukrainians seem to have managed not to leak any information in advance."
The Financial Times also wrote about the political motive of the operation . "The government of Ukraine wants to change the momentum and the strategic narrative," Mick Ryan, a retired Major General of the Australian Army, commented to the publication. But he adds that, taking into account Russia's pressure on various areas of the front, it is difficult to understand the strategic justification of the "Kurk" operation.
Frank Specht, columnist of the German Handelsblatt, believes that the offensive should mainly have a psychological effect on the Russians: "Enemy tanks on their own territory, [...] the declaration of a state of emergency in the Kursk region — all this makes it more difficult for Putin to continue talking about a full-scale war with Ukraine as a special military operation". Specht also emphasizes the dangers of the Kurshchyna operation for Ukraine if it runs out of troops. In addition, captured Western equipment, if this happens, Kremlin propaganda will use as "proof" that NATO is at war with Russia.
The operation in the Kursk region is an argument for American and European allies that they should not be afraid of threats of escalation from the Kremlin and that Ukraine should be allowed to fight in any way that will speed up the end of the war, according to Bloomberg . They add that this is the first time since the Second World War when the army of another country invaded Russia. Although the official Kyiv has not yet confirmed that the Ukrainian army is currently fighting in the Kursk region.
The BBC writes that Russia was not ready for an offensive and this shows that the "SVO" is not going according to plan. However, columnist Steve Rosenberg says that the operation in Kurshchyna is unlikely to encourage Russians to eventually rebel against Russia's war in Ukraine. More likely, officials will use the attack on the region to once again support the Kremlin's official narrative: Russia is not an aggressor and is surrounded by enemies.
The Chinese newspaper Global Times , citing a number of experts, concludes that the attack on the Kursk region will aggravate the situation on the battlefield and "scuttle hopes for peace talks." "In the conditions when the voices of the West are calling for negotiations, Ukraine wants to demonstrate its fighting capacity and determination," says Cui Heng , a scientist from the Shanghai National Institute of International Exchanges and Judicial Cooperation of the SCO , and adds that this is the time chosen for the operation, because now in the Russian there are changes in the military leadership (for example, in the spring, the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense changed — ed.). "The Ukrainian attack does not pose a serious military problem for Moscow, but it causes reputational damage," writes the Warsaw-based Center for Oriental Studies (OSW). They also assume that the main reasons for the Kursk operation are political. They said that Kyiv demonstrates that the Defense Forces can take the initiative, in particular, threaten Russia on its territories.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that the operation in the Kursk region shows that Ukraine managed to achieve operational surprise. But the Kremlin will almost certainly try to get this territory back and stop Ukrainians from advancing further into Russia. Otherwise, it would be a strategic blow for Putin, who is trying to establish his views on the stability, security and geopolitical revival of the Russian Federation.
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