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Russo-Ukraine War - 16 February 2022

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EU commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on 16 February 2022 said that Europe could survive Russia's squeeze on gas supplies to the EU thanks to an unprecedented diversification of sources in recent weeks. "Our models show, with all the measures we have taken, that we are now on the safe side for this winter," Von der Leyen said at a European Parliament session in the eastern French city of Strasbourg. Russia supplies about 40 percent of Europe's natural gas. The EU had spoken with the United States, Qatar, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Nigeria and South Korea about increasing gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries, either through additional shipments or contract swaps, von der Leyen said. "We have also spoken to major suppliers of LNG... in order to ask whether we could swap contracts in favour of the EU," she said, adding that Japan was willing to do this. "These efforts are now distinctly paying off." The potential short-term impact of a disruption to Russian gas supply had eased as Europe headed towards spring, when demand for gas-fuelled heating typically declines. Europe's gas storage levels were currently around 34 percent full.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Russia seemed to be building up its forces around Ukraine, despite Moscow having announced a troop pullback earlier in the day. "We have heard the signs from Moscow about readiness to continue diplomatic efforts, but so far, we have not seen any de-escalation on the ground. On the contrary, it appears that Russia continues their military build-up," Jens Stoltenberg said 16 February 2022.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has warned that "a high threat level of a combat operation by the Ukrainian Army in Donbass remains". When asked whether such a threat has been diminishing in recent weeks, Peskov said "no". He told reporters "The attention of our interlocutors is drawn in every possible way to this dangerous concentration [of Ukrainian troops near the line of contact in Donbass] and to the fact that a military operation and an attempt to resolve problems by force in the southeast [of Ukraine] are quite likely. Such a probability is high, it is real, and, unfortunately, all of us and the whole world have already witnessed Kiev start a military operation in Donbass, namely, begin a civil war in its own country".

President Joe Biden said American officials had not verified Russia’s claim of a troop pullback. He promised that the US would give diplomacy "every chance," but he struck a sceptical tone about Moscow's intentions. "Two paths are still open," Biden said in remarks at the White House. "But let there be no doubt: If Russia commits this breach by invading Ukraine, responsible nations around the world will not hesitate to respond. If we do not stand for freedom where it is at risk today, we’ll surely pay a steeper price tomorrow.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared 16 February 2022 as ‘Day of Unity’ apprehending Russian invasion based on US assessment. US projections that 16 February 2022 could be the date of a Russian military campaign against Ukraine didn't materialize. International tensions remained high as the US said 150,000 Russian troops were massed to the north, south and east of Ukraine, and Western officials said a Russian invasion could still happen at any moment. Biden has said that a Russian attack on Ukraine remained "very much a possibility," but that a diplomatic solution to the crisis could yet be reached.

"We have not seen evidence that Russia has withdrawn forces from Ukraine’s borders," Jim Hockenhull, the UK defence intelligence chief, said in a rare public statement. "Contrary to their claims, Russia continues to build up military capabilities near Ukraine," he said. "This includes sightings of additional armoured vehicles, helicopters and a field hospital moving towards Ukraine’s borders. Russia has the military mass in place to conduct an invasion of Ukraine."

To some observers, a Russian military invasion of Ukraine, for now, seemed to be off the table. Putin clearly expressed his willingness to continue to engage in dialogue. Olaf Scholz was also able to bring a diplomatic offering to his first meeting with Vladimir Putin. While in Kyiv the day before, the German leader got Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to take the first diplomatic step and agree to draft three legislative bills that, under the Minsk agreement, should have long been delivered.

Anatoly Karlin wrote 16 February 2022 "Russia’s impossible ultimatums to NATO have pre-committed it to military operations in Ukraine. ... by mere dint of having advanced these audacious demands - and gotten not only curtly rejected, but pressed with counter-demands to withdraw from Crimea and the Donbass - Russia has effectively committed itself to military operations in Ukraine. Should it fail to follow up, it will be recognized as an unironic troll country, one that scores cheap “owns” against Western “war propaganda” but can be expected to do nothing but puff out its cheeks if/when its bluff is called. Western politicians will have cause to believe that any future Russian buildups will also be bluffs, and that increasing weapons supplies to Ukraine works. Atlantic Council activists who insist that Russians “only understand the language of strength” will be validated, with subsequent responses likely to include acceleration of NATO integration and more “preventative sanctions.”

Yang Jin, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on 16 February 2022 that Russia has lost practically nothing during the three months of the crisis but won a lot, imposing its agenda on the West and forcing Western leaders to line up for meetings with Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Victor Larin, an academician and principal researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that Russia had finally shown itself to be a great power that demands respect for its interests and urges other powers to recognize these interests.

Secretary Antony Blinken said that "Kremlin recognition of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as “independent” would signify Russia’s wholesale rejection of the Minsk agreements, which remain the best means to resolve the conflict in the Donbas."