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Ukraine 2024 Election

The 103rd article of the Constitution [of Ukraine], which says that the President is elected for only five years, there is the 83rd article of the Constitution of Ukraine, which states that in conditions of martial law the powers of the Verkhovna Rada can be extended. Nothing was said about extending the president's powers. The law on the essence of the martial law regime says that under martial law, presidential elections are not held, but it does not say that they are prolonged.

The Economist reported 27 September 2024 that President Zelenskyy is considering calling presidential elections in 2025 amid his falling ratings "to consolidate his power." The media added that according to America's National Democratic Institute, Ukrainians' trust in Zelenskyy dropped from 80% in May 2023 to 45% in 2024.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 06 November 2023 he doesn't believe it was the right time for elections as debate intensifies on holding a vote in 2024 while the country fights against Russia's invasion. All elections including the presidential vote set to take place next spring are technically cancelled under martial law that has been in effect since the conflict began last year. "We must decide that now is the time of defence, the time of battle, on which the fate of the state and people depends," Zelensky said in his daily address. He said it was a time for the country to be united, not divided, adding: "I believe that now is not the (right) time for elections."

Voting could be logistically difficult due to the large number of Ukrainians abroad and soldiers fighting on the front. Zelensky's approval rating skyrocketed after the war began, but the country's political landscape has been fractious despite the unifying force of the war. Former presidential aide Oleksiy Arestovych has announced that he would run against his former boss, after criticising Zelensky over the slow pace of the counter-offensive.

Zelensky said 08 September 2023 Ukraine was prepared to organise elections even while the war with Russia is still going on. "I am ready for the elections. I mean, we are ready if it is necessary," said Zelensky, adding he was in favour of allowing international observers because "for us the main thing is not to hold elections, but for them to be recognised".

The next Ukrainian presidential election was scheduled for 31 March 2024. The inner circle of the Ukrainian president was in favor of starting the election race in 2024 to elect the Ukrainian parliament and president. Sources attributed this to Zelenskiy's attempt to maintain legitimacy in the face of possible directons in the war with Russia. Zelensky behaved as a true leader at the decisive moment. He did not leave the country despite offers and performed his duties with dignity. But success at leadership during an existential war is not the same as leading in peacetime, as Winston Churchill discovered.

Zelenskyy said 28 August 2023 elections could happen next year amid the ongoing conflict and martial law, if allies shared the financial burden. He said legislative approval and ensuring good voter turnout would also be essential. "I will not hold elections on credit, I will not take money from weapons and give it to elections either," Zelenskyy said in an interview published by his office. "But if you give me this financial support, if the parliamentarians realize that we need to do this, then let's quickly change the legislation and, most importantly, let's take risks together."

"We need an election in Ukraine next year. I want to see this country have a free and fair election even while it is under assault," the president said. Zelenskyy also said those fighting against the Russian invasion have to be included. "They are defending this democracy today, and not to give them this opportunity because of war — that is unfair. I was against the elections only because of this," he said.

As they say in Zelensky’s entourage, “victory must have one father” – the president of Ukraine. Although the law provides for a ban on the simultaneous holding of Presidential and parliamentary elections, it is not difficult to circumvent it by referring to the postponement of elections to the Rada due to martial law. Future elections remain one of the central themes in the political backstage, they serve as a popular explanation for many processes now.

Zelensky's approval rates over the first year of the war were significantly higher than the pre-war figures. In March 2021, just 12 percent strongly approved and 26 percent somewhat approved of Zelensky's actions, with 53 percent disapproving to some degree. By September 2022, his approval ratings in Ukraine remained high across all age groups, as Ukraine continued to battle Russian forces. A total of 91 percent of Ukrainians aged between 15 and 34 supported Zelensky's actions as president. According to a poll from February 2023, some 91 percent of Ukrainians were satisfied with his performance, and a sizable majority (65 per cent) wanted him to serve another term as president.

President Zelenskyy signed a decree imposing martial law on 24 February 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Martial law states that the president maintains his position if his powers expire during martial law. Scheduled presidential or regular elections may be held only after the termination of martial law. In case of the early termination of the president’s term, the speaker of the parliament would assume those authorities. Likewise, parliamentarians would remain in their seats should their powers expire during martial law.

A former comedian, actor, and TV producer with no prior experience in politics, Zelensky was elected president in 2019. The president’s popularity dropped to around 20% before the start of Russia’s military operation, according to Ukrainian pollster Rating Group. Experts linked the dip in the polls at the time to Zelensky’s overall inexperience and the failure to deliver on his promises of reforms. According to Politico, his soaring wartime approval rating of 84% is expected to “plunge once the existential threat has gone.”

In March 2020, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy fired his prime minister and reshuffled his cabinet, the parliament was torn between confronting COVID-19 and completing preconditions for the next IMF program, and controversy flared over the Donbas. By 2021 public support for The People’s Servant Party of Ukrainian President Zelenskiy had collapsed, according to a poll released by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on 26 January 2021. About 11.2% of voters that have decided said they would vote for Zelenskiy’s party, which won election to Parliament in July 2019 with an overwhelming 43% result.

“This poll confirms the primary trends in Ukrainian politics: (1) Zelenskiy and his party are losing votes to the pro-Russian forces, largely because they are incapable of solving any major problem facing the country; (2) the pro-Russian forces are already taking a consistent lead in the polls, largely because they are capable of resolving the war in Donbas (through capitulation), and (3) Poroshenko and his party have hit their ceiling and are incapable of widening their support. With its hybrid war in Ukraine, the Kremlin is succeeding in infiltrating many critical governing structures. Besides the President’s Office and the Prosecutor General’s Office, the Kremlin is now positioning itself for major gains in the next national elections,” Zenon Zawada of Concorde Capital said in a note.

In January 2023, Zelensky fired several senior officials, including four deputy ministers and five regional governors, after the authorities were accused of corruption and mismanagement. Kirill Timoshenko, Zelensky’s deputy chief of staff, also resigned in the wake of the scandal. Although many Western countries have hailed Zelensky as a “hero” and pledged to support Kiev for “as long as it takes,” some, including US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, slammed the White House for what they have called the “blank-check” funding of Ukraine. German newspaper Bild reported in March 2023 that Zelensky was at odds with General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top commander, over combat tactics in Donbass. Kiev denied that there was a conflict between the president and the general.

The Ukrainian authorities could be challenged by new protests and serious political upheaval similar to the 2014 revolt in Kiev after the conflict with Russia ends, Politico magazine reported on 18 April 2023, citing a former Ukrainian cabinet minister. In 2014, then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich was ousted amid the ‘Euromaidan’ protests in Kiev and fierce clashes between armed protesters and riot police. “You know, Maidan could happen again,” the official who asked not to be named said, adding that the “war has triggered great hopes, and people will be very impatient for change.”

“They will want money and justice and the completion of the reform they demanded back in 2014, and they will want them quickly,” the official stated. Politico said opposition politicians and civil society leaders interviewed by the magazine warned that President Vladimir Zelensky would face accusations that he used the conflict to consolidate power and bypass parliament. “We need to support the government, and we need to remain united,” Nikolay Knyazhitsky, an MP from the European Solidarity party, told the publication. “But I worry about the future of democracy in my country.”

A poll of the Sociological Group "Rating" reported 21 February 2023 that 65% of Ukrainians believe that Vladimir Zelensky should be re-elected as President of Ukraine for a second term, and 25% that he should leave office after the end of the first, another 2% are in favor of terminating his powers as soon as possible.

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said 24 March 2023 the issue of the timing of the next elections in Ukraine is very complicated. And even if there are elections, in the near future I do not see a single competitor for the president of our country. A total of 91% of Ukrainians approve of the activities of President Volodymyr Zelensky, 97% of citizens believe in victory in the war with Russia, 74% believe that Ukraine will keep all territories within its internationally recognized borders as of 1991 - poll Rating commissioned by IRI released 24 March 2023.

Petro Poroshenko and his associates in the European Solidarity party had been (after the start of the war) harshly criticized Zelensky and his team. By early 2023, in parallel, a number of other political forces were being drawn into the topic of the political struggle against Zelensky, in coordination with Poroshenko. In April 2023 the Poroshenkoites launched a campaign on the topic "we told you!" with the main thesis "if Poroshenko had been elected, there would have been no war." Zelensky won, and his opponents argued that Putin decided that with such an inexperienced president, Ukraine would become easy prey, and therefore started a war.

the Poroshenko group is actively seeking new political allies and strengthening ties with old ones. Recently, the informal alliance of "Eurosolidarity" and the party of the mayor of Kiev Vitaliy Klitschko Udar ["Blow"] showed itself in the Kiev City Council . Both political forces (plus allied minor factions) create the majority in that representative body. Its presence undoubtedly strengthened the self-confidence of Klitschko, continuing to believe that he can become Zelensky's competitor in the next presidential election.

Yushchenko came to power as a result of the Orange Revolution, and was an anti-Russian president. Five years later, Yushchenko lost the presidential election and faded into history after receiving less than 10 percent of the vote. Critics believed the same fate awaited Zelensky, notwithstanding the information war and the constant hammering of propaganda into the minds of ordinary Ukrainians on a daily basis. But critics believe that what’s being said in the media space doesn’t match up with people's lives and material well-being.

In late May 2022 Time magazine included Zelenskiy and Zaluzhniy in the “Leaders” category (at the second and the 20th places respectively) in the list of 100 most influential people on the planet. In that publication the President was praised by Joe Biden, the Commander-in-Chief by Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

By August 2022 some Western media believed that a serious conflict had broken out between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and AFU chief Valeriy Zaluzhny, which may end with the resignation of one of them. It was said that Zelensky wanted to get rid of the general, because he is afraid of his popularity in the country and abroad.

“Zelensky is completely dependent on the West. They are satisfied with the developments in Ukraine so far and are in no hurry to remove the head of state, but when the situation changes, Zaluzhny will be remembered. Zelenskyy will be blamed for a few military-political failures and then an experienced general and a patriot will be in the president’s chair”, Ukrainian political analyst Oleksandr Dudchak said.

The German newspaper Bild states in its article by “Valeriy Moguchiy” that Zelenskiy is very nervous about the rumors about the presidential ambitions of the commander-in-chief. According to the journalists, the general may lead the state after the end of hostilities. At the same time, the Western media are not stingy with flattery to Zaluzhny. For example, Bild praises his “leadership qualities and military savvy”, and the Polish newspaper Wyborcza calls the commander in chief “a cross between David and Moses”.

Zelensky’s popularity peaked in the first two months of hostilities, and then people increasingly began to ask: How did the country get to this point? Many publications have blamed indecisive and short-sighted politicians, while the military, on the contrary, has been praised for its courage. Moreover, the media warn that Zelensky may concentrate too much power in his hands and then the ‘democratic Ukraine will be finished’.

In Kiev, any bright politician capable of overshadowing the head of state comes under attack. Zelensky is still considered to be the first face, largely because Zaluzhnyy is emphatically aloof from power struggles.

Ukraine is at a “critical point” in its democratic evolution as it heads towards presidential elections in 2024, accordong to a confidential assessment by the Federal Intelligence Service from July 2023. The assessment, written in the wake of the attempted mutiny in Russia by the Wagner mercenary group , claimed that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is attempting to politically eliminate his biggest rival, Kyiv mayor Vitaly Klitschko, ahead of next year’s election. The claim, it added, is based on “credible intelligence.”

"In his attempt to eliminate Klitschko politically, Zelensky is showing authoritarian traits,” write the report’s authors. "It is very likely that Western states will exert pressure on the president and his entourage in this regard."

Ulrich Schmid, a professor of Eastern European studies at the University of St. Gallen, told the newspaper NZZ that Zelensky had nothing to worry about for his re-election. "Since his courageous decision not to leave Kyiv in the face of the Russian attack, he enjoys a lot of credit among the population,” he said. But, he added, some of the ingredients for democracy in the country were missing. "What are the prerequisites of a functioning democracy?" said Schmid. "Independent parties and a free press. Neither is present in Ukraine at the moment."

Damien Cottier, a parliamentarian with the Radical-Liberals, told the NZZ: "It is important to make it clear to the government in Kyiv that as soon as the war is over, free and fair elections must be held immediately.”

Zelensky on 26 July 2023 proposed to extend the state of emergency, thereby effectively canceling parliamentary elections scheduled for October. Zelensky declared martial law on February 24, 2022, and has been extending it ever since. The most recent 90-day extension was announced on May 20, and is due to expire on August 18. If the Verkhovna Rada approves Zelensky’s latest request, this will see the emergency extended through November 15. Ukrainian law calls for parliamentary elections no later than October 29, with a 60-day campaign season starting on August 28. However, it also forbids campaigning and voting during martial law. Another extension would cut into the campaign season for the presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 2024.

As of the beginning of July 2023, over 78% of the polled Ukrainians said that it is the president of Ukraine who is directly responsible for corruption in the government and military administrations, according to a survey conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, jointly with Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, on July 3-17, 2023. According to the survey, which was published on the official website of the Foundation on 11 September 2023, only 18% of the polled Ukrainians disagree with such a claim.