Russian Military Personnel Mobilization 2023
In the run-up to the Russian presidential elections scheduled for March 2024, Russian authorities will likely seek to avoid further unpopular mobilisations.
Russia’s conscription continues to have negative effects on its industry workforce. The Yegor Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy found that Russia’s industry shortage of workers reached a new high of 42% for July 2023, which is 7% higher from April 2023. In contrast to conscription efforts elsewhere, in the IT sector Russia has taken steps to preserve the workforce. This likely highlights the particularly acute shortages in the sector after about 100,000 IT workers left Russia in 2022. This equates to 10% of the IT sector workforce. On September 4, 2023, Putin signed a decree to increase the exemption age of military recruitment for IT professionals from 27 to 30. According to the UK intelligence, this shows that mobilisation and conscription within Russia has worsened non-defence workforce shortages.
Russia’s conscription system continued to rely on quotas assigned to the governors by the Ministry of Defence. Governors had no authority to determine the size of the quota, but they were given a degree of liberty in how to fulfil their share. Different regions gave different bonuses according to their available means. The amounts pledged vary, and they were inconsistently delivered, with many mobilised not seeing all or any of the promised money. Procurement and living conditions for the mobilised were also the responsibility of the local civilian authorities.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law 4 August 2023 establishing the draft age for military service from 18 to 30 years. The document is published on the official portal of legal information. Compared with the current rules, the upper limit of the draft age is shifted by three years: from 27 to 30 years. The lower limit remains unchanged. The law would come into force on January 1, 2024. Thus, the autumn conscription in 2023 would be held according to the current rules. Another law signed by the head of state introduces a ban on leaving the country for conscripts from the moment the summons is sent to them.
When the bill was discussed at a meeting of the State Duma on July 25, Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Duma Defense Committee, explained that those who turn 27 before the end of 2023 would not be subject to the new rules. "Those citizens who turn 27 years old in 2023, even on December 31 at 23:59, these citizens become conscripts in the reserve and were not subject to conscription in 2024. Those who were now 28, 29 [years old], they were already in reserve," Kartapolov said.
The law on changing the military age also entitles the heads of subjects of the Russian Federation during martial law and mobilization, as well as in wartime, to create specialized unitary enterprises to help security agencies maintain order, including in the fight against saboteurs and the protection of the state border. Such structures would receive military small arms and cartridges for them for temporary use. Their employees would have the right to shoot down drones in the air and on the water or under water, as well as to suppress their work.
In addition, Putin signed a law establishing a ban on citizens subject to military registration from leaving Russia from the day they were sent a summons at their place of work or study. Previously, such a ban was in effect from the moment when the summons was considered served. According to the new rules, it is enough that a corresponding mark appears in the register of service of subpoenas. The decision to ban travel for a particular conscript would be formed by the military registration and enlistment office on the day the summons is sent to the citizen. Restrictive measures would also be canceled by military registration and enlistment offices - after the appearance of the conscript or confirmation of good reasons for non-appearance.
The same law specifies the procedure for transferring information about citizens subject to military registration. Now the Ministry of Health would collect all medical information about potential recruits from regional authorities and transfer it to a single register. Whereas earlier the data from medical institutions were accumulated by the regional authorities and they themselves transferred them for accounting. A similar procedure also applies to educational institutions. Now information from schools and universities would be sent to the regional authorities, who would forward them to Rospotrebnadzor. The Office, in turn, would transfer the information to the registry.
At the end of 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu came up with the idea to change the draft age . At the final meeting of the Ministry of Defense, he proposed "when recruiting the armed forces, gradually increase the age of conscription of citizens from 18 to 21 years, and raise the limit to 30 years." At the same time, plans were announced to increase the number of Russian military personnel to 1.5 million people. Russian President Vladimir Putin supported the proposal. The State Duma adopted the corresponding bill in the first reading in June. According to the text of the document at this stage, the draft age in 2024 was proposed to be set from 19 to 30 years, in 2025 - from 20 to 30 years, in 2026 - from 21 to 30 years. However, when preparing the bill for the second reading, amendments were made to it, canceling the increase in the lower threshold of military age. Kartapolov explained this by the fact that "a lot of guys want to go and serve exactly at the age of 18." The amendments were supported by the State Duma and the Federation Council.
By January 2023 there were signs that Russia was planning another offensive in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials and Russian experts predicted a second mobilization wave. During his traditional evening address 10 January 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow planned to mobilize more troops for a major offensive. Shortly before New Year's Eve, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov had warned Russians the Kremlin was working on another conscription drive, planning to impose martial law and close the border to Russian men to prevent them from leaving.
"We can see there is no decree to end the mobilization drive," says Sergei Krivenko, who heads Russia's Citizens, Army, Rights group, a human rights organization. "The first draft wave happened in October; this was no partial mobilization." He also said "there are reports that some people in regions of Russia are still being called up, maybe the defense ministry is trying to draft specialists” in any case, the mobilization is not over." Russian authorities have labeled his organization a "foreign agent."
In December 2022, however, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the armed forces would be expanded to 1.5 million soldiers, says Krivenko. This would mean growing the armed forces by 400,000. "This is preparation for a mobilization, I think we should expect a second wave in late January or February."
Half of the freshly mobilized soldiers were sent to the front, the other was sent to training camps. "They underwent months of training," says Krivenko. "When the offensive begins that Putin and his defense minister talked about, these soldiers will be sent straight into battle. They will soon need reinforcements, so a second mobilization wave must begin now, so that the conscripts can be trained for several months."
"There will be a second, maybe even a third mobilization wave, because we will be forced to do this," Igor Girkin, the former "defense minister" of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic said in late December 2022. "To win in Ukraine, we will have to field at least half a million soldiers. Even without this determination to win we will need partial mobilizations." According to Girkin, a second mobilization wave will ensue in January or on February 24, the one-year anniversary of the war.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in December 2022, at the final board of the department with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, proposed to gradually increase the age of conscription of citizens from 18 to 21 years, and raise the age limit to 30 years. As Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the head of state, noted on 12 January 2023, the president conceptually supported the idea of raising the draft age, but details on this topic should be found out from the Ministry of Defense. A transitional period may be provided for by increasing the age of conscription of citizens for military service from 18 to 21 years. This was stated 15 January 2023 by the head of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov. As Kartapolov later explained in an interview with Parlamentskaya Gazeta, the increase in the draft age would take place in stages and would take from one to three years.
“Everyone who applied to the hotline was explained that no additional measures within the framework of partial mobilization are planned or carried out. The Russian Defense Ministry urges citizens not to succumb to provocations and, in case of problematic issues, contact the hotline for clarification,” the ministry said. On January 23, Dmitry Peskov added that the decree on partial mobilization provides for other measures necessary to carry out the tasks of the armed forces. The Kremlin did not specify what provisions of the document were in question. On February 14, Artur Gaiduk, deputy of the Pskov regional assembly from the Yabloko party, published a response from the Russian Defense Ministry to his request, which stated that the decree provides social guarantees to the mobilized and their families.
The Russian Ministry of Defense does not carry out additional activities as part of partial mobilization, and there were no plans to resume them either. This was stated 10 March 2023 at the National Center for Defense Control of the Russian Federation (NTsUO RF). During a briefing on the work of the hotline in the NCUO of the Russian Federation, they spoke about the growing number of appeals from citizens "concerned about the possibility of resuming conscription for military service as part of partial mobilization." The department believes that the excitement of the Russians is caused by "misinformation published in the opposition Telegram channels."
Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Yuri Shvytkin commented 27 March 2023 on the news from Bloomberg that the leaders of Russian regions were tasked with recruiting 400,000 contract soldiers. “I think this is a real number. Another question is that this will not happen every second and overnight. I am sure that we will fulfill the task set by the commander-in-chief, to bring the army to 1.5 million people. Which of the contract soldiers will participate in the SVO, and who will not, will determine the leadership of the military units. Everything is spelled out in the contracts, ”said Shvytkin.
The MP stressed that it is only about voluntary conscription into the army. “Naturally, the increase in the Russian Armed Forces to 1.5 million people involves recruitment, including on a contract basis, no one hides this. The military commissariats are now carrying out relevant work: holding individual conversations and so on. This is a voluntary basis, there is no compulsory recruitment order. Whoever expresses a desire goes to the service on a contract basis, ” he told the NSN.
The spring draft for military service in 2023 would be held in the LPR without sending conscripts to the troops. This was announced on 12 May 2023 by the acting head of the republic, Leonid Pasechnik. "I will clarify that the spring conscription of 2023 will take place without sending conscripts to the troops," Pasechnyk said, according to the Luganskinformtsentr agency. He added that the draft commissions would provide a medical examination of conscripts and make decisions on conscription, granting a deferment from conscription, release from it, as well as on enrollment in the reserve and on exemption from military duty. In addition, the commissions would keep records of draft dodgers.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on military training of Russian citizens in reserve in 2023. The document was published on the official legal information website 10 May 2023. "Call up Russian citizens in reserve for military training in the Russian Armed Forces, Russian National Guard forces, state security agencies and Federal Security Service (FSB) bodies in 2023," the document reads. The Russian government and executive power bodies were tasked with implementation of events connected to the call-up and the training itself. The decree enters into effect since the day of publication.
Military training of reservists is a planned event on improvement of reservists’ military proficiency and takes place annually. The call-up decree is being signed by the President of the Russian Federation. Based on the presidential decree, the Defense Ministry’s mobilization department prepares a corresponding directive for regional conscription stations. Only once this process is complete, reservists would begin to receive call-up notifications.
Russia’s parliament on 18 May 2023 extended the maximum age at which men can be mobilised to serve in the army by at least five years – in the case of the highest-ranking officers, up to the age of 70. It is already raising the upper age limit for men to be called up for compulsory military service to 30 from 27, and has made it much harder for young men to avoid the draft by dodging recruiters handing out call-up papers.
The State Duma at a plenary session on 14 July 2023 discussed in the second reading a bill that, among other things, raises the age limit for certain citizens with military ranks by five years. The bill specified in the first reading that citizens of the Russian Federation, being in military service or in reserve, can enter military service under a contract to participate in operations carried out by the Russian Armed Forces outside the country. The document was submitted to the State Duma by a group of deputies headed by Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the Duma Defense Committee, in November 2022; the chamber adopted it in the first reading in January 2023.
By the second reading, several significant amendments were received to the bill. So, in the law "On military duty and military service" it is proposed to prescribe new age limits for the stay in the reserve of citizens with the ranks of soldiers, sailors, sergeants, foremen, warrant officers and midshipmen. The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third category - from 50 to 55 years.
The amendment also increases the age limit for the reserve to stay in the mobilization reserve. According to current regulations, the age limit for being in the reserve corresponds to the age limit for being in the reserve, established for citizens from the reserve of the second category. The bill proposes to establish that for citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it would be 65 years (today in most cases it is 60 years), for military ranks of junior officers - 60 years (today 55 years), and for those with other ranks - 55 years old (today 45 years old). The age limit for being in the mobilization reserve for reserve citizens with military ranks of senior officers remains at the level of 70 years.
The new rules were expected to come into force on January 1, 2024. The bill also provided for a transitional period until January 1, 2028, so that citizens who were in the reserve were phased out. So, citizens who turn 50 years old in 2024 would stay in the reserve until 51 years old, those who turn 50 years old in 2025 - up to 52 years old. Accordingly, citizens who have reached the age of 50 in 2026 would be in the reserve up to 53 years, and in 2024 - up to 54 years. From January 1, 2028, all citizens with the military ranks of soldiers, sailors, sergeants, foremen, warrant officers and midshipmen would stay in the reserve (and, accordingly, in the mobilization human reserve) up to 55 years. At the same time, it is specified that citizens aged 50 to 54 who were transferred by the military commissars to the resignation before January 1, 2024, were not subject to enrollment in the reserve.
The bill also proposed to reword the article of the law "On military duty and military service", which deals with the specifics of concluding a contract on staying in the reserve. Thus, the first contract on staying in the reserve is allowed to be concluded by citizens of the Russian Federation who do not have foreign citizenship or a residence permit, who were in the reserve and have completed military service or completed military training programs. According to the bill, if such citizens have military ranks of senior officers, they would be able to conclude such a contract at the age of up to 62 years (today up to 52 and up to 57 years). Junior officers would be able to conclude the first contract on staying in the reserve at the age of up to 57 years (today up to 47 years), and citizens with other military ranks - up to 52 years old (today - up to 42 years). Besides, The draft law also allows citizens with military ranks of senior officers under the age of 67 to conclude the first reserve contract. The norms in force today do not regulate the conclusion of such a contract by senior officers.
In addition, the draft law also allowed foreign citizens to conclude the first contract on staying in the reserve, provided that the performance of their official duties is not related to the use of information constituting a state secret. "This will allow citizens living in Crimea, Sevastopol and other regions of the Russian Federation and having Ukrainian citizenship that has not been terminated for reasons beyond their control to enter the reserve," the State Duma committee notes in justifying the amendment.
In addition, the document also proposed to supplement the law with a new article establishing cases of suspension of a citizen's stay in the reserve. Thus, the stay of a citizen in the reserve is suspended for the period of his service in the event of a call for mobilization, the conclusion of a contract to participate in activities to restore international peace or suppress international terrorist activities outside the Russian Federation, and also if the citizen has concluded a contract on voluntary assistance in the performance of the tasks assigned to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
In order to continue the war against Ukraine, the Russian authorities conducted covert mobilization. These options enabled Putin and, accordingly, the armed forces of the Russian Federation, to minimize the loss of personnel due to unaccounted losses – prisoners and citizens of Ukraine from the temporarily occupied territories.
One of the main sources of its replenishment is prisoners, of which there are about 600 thousand in the Russian Federation. The first option for replenishing personnel is through a presidential decree on the possibility of concluding contracts with persons convicted directly with the Ministry of Defense. The number is sufficient, given that there are about 600,000 males in Russian prisons. The so-called “Storm-Z” shock battalions are being formed from convicted persons in the Russian Federation. This is a tactic that was tested by the Wagner PMC during the recruitment of prisoners.
The second way is forced mobilization in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. The number of personnel of the First and Second Army Corps of the self-proclaimed “LPR” from 35 thousand in 2022 was increased to 100 thousand people. In the occupied territories of the Lugansk region, some cities called themselves “woman’s” by the locals – due to the complete absence of the male population, total mobilization having taken place.
The third option of Russian mobilization saw the composition of the occupying army of the Russian Federation replenished thanks to the actual raids on residents of the Central Asian republics, labor migrants on the territory of Russia. Migrants from Central Asian countries were pressured into signing contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry as the Kremlin tries to bolster the pool of recruits to help fight its war against Ukraine. Central Asian-born migrants with or without Russian citizenship had emerged as critical targets of Russia's military recruitment drive. Across the vast territory of the Russian Federation, there were actually raids on residents of the Central Asian republics, the so-called labor migrants, who were caught and given a choice: either be deported back to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, or sign a corresponding decree with the armed forces of the Russian Federation. Given that illegal migration amounts to millions, this is another source of so-called covert mobilization,” said the guest on the air.
These three such main sources, which Russia was counting on, made it possible to continue the war against Ukraine without carrying out the so-called partial mobilization, which can cause discontent directly on the territory of the Russian Federation.
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