Madhya Pradesh - Climate
The climate of Madhya Pradesh plays an integral role in dividing the state into six distinctive parts. The summers are hot and humid and the winters are extremely pleasant. In fact the best time to visit Madhya Pradesh is between the months of October to February. Average annual rainfall for the state is 1160 mm with the heaviest rains in the south-eastern parts which decreases towards north-west. Balaghat receives the maximum rains with an average of 1600 mm. Most of the rainfall is received from the south-west monsoon during June to September.
Like other parts of India, Madhya Pradesh also has three major seasons - Summer Monsoon and Winter. During summer (March-June), the temperature in the entire state ranges above 29.4°C. In general, the eastern parts of Madhya Pradesh are hotter than the western parts. The regions like Gwalior, Morena and Datia record temperature of over 42°C in the month of May. The humidity is relatively very low and the region usually experiences frequent mild dust storms. The south-west Monsoon usually breaks out in mid June and the entire state receive a major share of its rainfall between June and September. The south and south-east regions tend to experience a higher rainfall whereas the parts of north-west receive less. Mandla, Balaghat, Sidhi, Jabalpur and other extreme eastern parts receive more than 150 cm rainfall. The districts of western Madhya Pradesh receive less than 80 cm rainfall.
The winter season starts from the month of November. The temperature remains low in the northern parts of the state in comparison to the southern parts. The daily maximum temperature in most of the northern part in the month of January remains between 15 and 18°C. The climate is generally dry and pleasant with a clear sky.
Madhya Pradesh is considered to be vulnerable with respect to Climate Change. It is a centrally located land locked state with undulating topography and diverse physiography. The State is drained by rain-fed rivers and receives 1160 mm average rainfall annually, though keeps varying across the State. It has rich bio-diversity, vast forest cover and plenty of mineral wealth.
As per the census 2011, total population Madhya Pradesh stands at 72.6 millions, out of which 52.5 millions are in rural parts which rely on primary sectors like agriculture, horticulture, fishery, livestock, poultry and forestry for livelihoods. These natural resources based livelihood sources are expected to be impacted more than the secondary and other sectors.
Changes in climatic conditions can bring irreversible changes to these systems. Some of the projected climate risks for M.P. are increase in the maximum and minimum temperatures, changes in spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon, increase in frequency and intensity of rains, loss of rainy days, extended summers etc. Climate Change will not only affect the natural resources but would also impact upon human health and availability of safe habitats in the times to come. These climate risks indeed have the potential to hamper the sustainable development of the state.
The rainfed nature of rivers of Madhya Pradesh has made them highly susceptible to the variations in the distribution and patterns of rainfall. Reduction in the stream run off will have adverse impacts on irrigation and hydro power projects besides reducing the availability of water for all the other purposes.
The climate projections for MP indicates increase in intensity of the rains, thus a conscious effort needs to be made to review thetechnical aspects of the water storing and distributing structures. Many of such structures are very old hence special emphasis should be given on the storing capacity of these structures in order to avert any flood like situation.
Extreme events like frost, excess rain, and high temperatures have resulted in huge losses in productivity. Shifting of rainfall pattern affects cropping patterns. Mono-cropping reduces the crop diversity and adversely affects the soil health. The horticultural crops are also sensitive towards changing climate.
Growing population and developmental needs have increased the pressure on forests, which in turn has led to reduced livelihood opportunities for the rural and tribal people. Over exploitation of ground water has led to a significant decline in ground water levels in many blocks of the state, which may aggravate with the stress imposed by Climate Change. Madhya Pradesh is urbanizing at fifth highest rate in the country. The average surface daily maximum temperatures, in the period 2030s is projected to rise by 1.8-2.0 C throughout Madhya Pradesh and the daily minimum temperature is projected to rise between 2.0 C to 2.4 C during the same period; the eastern half of the state experiencing more warming than the western half. By 2080s, the maximum temperature is projected to rise between 3.4 C to 4.4 C with northern region experiencing warmer temperatures. The minimum temperatures are likely to rise by more than 4.4 C all over Madhya Pradesh.
Projections of rain fall in Madhya Pradesh for the period 2021 to 2050 indicates that there is likely to be decrease in winter rainfall as one moves from eastern part of MPto western part of MP. In pre-monsoon period, the rainfall is increasing only in the Southern part of MP, with decreasein rain fall in all other parts. In the Monsoon period, there is a slight increase in rainfall all over MP(the increase being 1.25 times the rainfall observed in the current climate), and with no change in the Morena, Shivpuri, Bhind, Gwalior area.
During post monsoon period, slowly again the western end of MPis likely to face decrease in rain fall, with no change or little increase in rainfall in most other parts of the state. In 2100 there is an overall increase in rain fall with southern states likely to receive more rain fall in the northern states. The increase in rain fall during the post monsoon and pre monsoon periods are projected to be more than the increase in rain falls projected for the monsoon period.
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