Haryana - Climate
The climate of the state is subtropical, semi-arid to sub humid, continental and monsoon type. The state has three distinct climatic regions namely hot arid region, hot semi arid region and hot sub-humid region. Haryana is very hot in summer and markedly cold in winter. The maximum temperature in the months of May and June goes as high as 46ºC. There are two well-marked seasons of rainfall in the state - the monsoon period falling from the middle of June till September and winter rains which occur from December to February.
River Yamuna flows along eastern boundary of the state. The river Ghaggar is its main seasonal river. Markand river is another seasonal river which originates from lower Shivalik hills.
Though Haryana is leading agricultural state in India , there are emerging challenges , like water table has gone down drastically, due to excessive and irrational fertilizer use and agriculture has almost become non-profitable due to high input cost. The groundwater level in Haryana, a major paddy producer in the country, has dropped by more than 50% in the past four decades. According to official information, in 1974 the groundwater was available at 9.19 metre (m) and in 2016, it has gone down to 18.66m, recording a decline up to 9.47m. In fact, this is the state’s average, as in many districts the groundwater level has gone down up to 46m.
The long term analysis for trends in observed temperature over Haryana using IMD gridded temperature at daily time scales show that there is no significant trend in the mean maximum temperature and minimum temperature shows an increase of about 1.0°C to 1.2°C. Similarly trends in observed seasonal precipitation is negligible in many parts of Haryana, parts of Bhiwani, Faridabad, Fatehabad, Gurgaon, Jhajjar, Jind, Karnal, Kurukshetra, Mahendragarh, Rohtak, Sirsa, Sonipat show decreasing trend in the monsoon rainfall.
The projected climate change in 2050’s and in 2080’s over Haryana using IPCC SRES A1B scenario (PRECIS2 regional climate model output) indicate mean maximum temperature is projected increase by 1.3°C and mean minimum temperature by 2.1°C towards mid century. The increase in mean maximum temperature is projected to be 4.2°C and mean minimum temperature 4.7°C towards end century respectively. Mean annual rainfall is projected to decrease marginally by about 63 mm (3%) by mid century and increase by about 347 mm (17%) by end century.
For the Yamuna and Indus basins lying within Haryana, analysis projects an increase in annual precipitation of about 9% (72 mm) by mid century, this results in 46% (33 mm) increase in runoff to the stream flow and 7% (5 mm) increase in baseflow, negligible decrease to the ground water recharge is projected. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase by 39% (28 mm). Increase in annual precipitation of about 23% (186 mm) by end century is projected, resulting in increase in runoff by 58% (108 mm) and about 6% (11 mm) returns to stream as baseflow. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase by 25% (46 mm). Negligible changes in ground water recharge is projected. These projections are derived from SWAT distributed hydrologic modelling.
The dynamic vegetation model outputs show that during the short-term period of 2030s, out of the 14 forested grids in Haryana, 4 (28.57%) will be impacted by climate change. The number of currently forested grids projected to be impacted by climate change remain the same towards 2080s. It is also assessed that any afforestation programme undertaken in future, in the districts of Karnal, Panipat, Jind, Bhiwari, Sonepat, Gurgaon, etc., could be vulnerable to future climate impacts.
Likely Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture projects that with short periods of exposure of wheat crops to temperatures of 28ºC to 32ºC result in significant decrease in yield by 20% or more. Unpredictable moisture deficits during crop growth are a major constraint to productivity, Sclerotinia stem rot may become a serious threat to the successful cultivation of Indian mustard.
The environmental conditions that induce heat stress on dairy animals may exacerbate and may lead to decline in milk productivity and may impair reproductive functions and efficiency of livestock species. Extreme air temperature leading to heat waves are a direct contributor to deaths from cardiovascular and air pollution to respiratory disease, particularly among elderly people, major infectious diseases transmitted by water may increase in future.
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