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Al 'Ubur Missile Program

The Al 'Ubur program probably began between 1999 and 2000 after UNSCOM departed and increased funding was available. The basic concept was to produce a Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) system, possibly modeled on the advanced Russian S-300 SAM. While Iraqi personnel reportedly gained access to the S-300, such a program was likely beyond Iraq's capabilities and the whole concept assumed an environment where there was no adherence to sanctions. According to one senior Iraqi, the program involved not only the missile, but also radar, launcher, and ground support equipment. Iraq Survey Group (ISG) judged that elements of the Al 'Ubur SAM program were well beyond Iraq's manufacturing capabilities. In addition to its uses as a SAM, ISG judged that Iraq most likely intended to modify the Al 'Ubur motor, once developed, for use in an SSM mode. Based on its previous success in converting the SA-2/Volga into an SSM, Iraq possessed the techniques required to undertake such a project.

The Al 'Ubur solid rocket motor was the major system component furthest along in development by the time of OIF. The Al 'Ubur motor was effectively an Al Fat'h motor with its length extended from 3.5 to 4.5 m. It had the same 500-mm diameter, propellant formulation, and steel case material. The Al 'Ubur had a different wagon wheel grain design to provide a different thrust profile and a different nozzle optimized for a SAM, compared to the 3-point star configuration in the Al Fat'h, according to a senior program official. The Al 'Ubur thrust profile failed to meet the calculated thrust, but the motor was considered more "stable" than the Al Fat'h motor, according to the same official.

The Al 'Ubur SAM system would have been an extremely complex system with an integrated radar seeker, phased array radar, and controlled via communication uplinks and downlinks embedded into the radar waveforms. The communication links and the radar were to be designed by the Al Milad General Company. The Al 'Ubur design called for a strap down INS that would be provided by a Russian company and an integrated radar seeker for terminal guidance, but the entire G&C system was never prototyped. The Soviet R-40 (AKRID/AA-6) AAM was used for simulation and parts.

The Al 'Ubur SAM was designed to carry a fragmentation warhead weighing 176 to 180 kg.

Al 'Ubur motor testing began using an intermediate subscale motor contained in an Ababil-50 motor case. These tests had mixed test results, using various propellant grain designs. Full-scale motor testing probably began in 2002, but reports vary on the actual start date. One senior official reported that a successful full-scale test was conducted on 12 January 2002. Another official reported that full-scale testing was conducted from approximately June to November 2002.

Following the successful static tests, Iraqi officials discussed using the Al 'Ubur in an SSM role, although no formal actions were taken. The potential use of the Al 'Ubur SAM as a long-range ballistic missile is clear, and high-level officials in the program indicated they had considered using the Al 'Ubur as an SSM. Because the Al 'Ubur and Al Fat'h solid-rocket motors would use the same propellant mixture, creation of an Al 'Ubur motor optimized for an SSM role would have only required the creation of a different mandrel to optimize the thrust profile. The similarities in the proposed rocket motor and INS indicate an Al 'Ubur SSM could be developed quickly, but such development could be detected during the inspection process. Further, given the longer motor and potential for lighter materials, an Al 'Ubur SSM would certainly have exceeded the 150-km limit imposed by the UN.