Pokhran [Pokharan / Pokaran]
India conducted its first underground nuclear test in May 1974 at the Pokhran test range. In May 1998 India claimed to have conducted five additional nuclear tests in this area, including at least one multi-kiloton test that was detected by seismic montoring stations around the world. Over the previous two decades, India had reportedly made extensive preparations for nuclear testing. A pathbreaking study in 1996 by Vipin Gupta and Frank Pabian identified a possible location for these test preparations at the Khetolai military range, a few kilometers southwest of the site of the May 1974 test [which was also for the first time conclusively identified]. This location was consistent with the seimic data from the May 1998 tests, and with public statements by Indian officials. It has generally been assumed that in fact the May 1998 tests were conducted at the Khetolai military range.
The American intelligence community was surprised by the timing of India's May 1998 nuclear tests. In late 1995 American intelligence had detected possible test preparations, and in early 1996 the US government acted on this warning to discourage India from testing at that time. The absence of prior intelligence warning of the impending May 1998 tests precluded such diplomatic intervention. Mindful of the 1996-96 episode, the Indian government evidently minimized the visibility of preparations for the May 1998 tests. The success of Indian operational security may have been enhanced by systemic failures in American intelligence collection or analysis. Although the fact of Indian deception and American intelligence failure is well established, the precise details of how these patterns of activity meshed remains obscure.
Newly available high-resolution imagery of the Khetolai military range provides interesting new insights into India's May 1998 nuclear tests. This imagery clearly depicts the site of India's first test in May 1974. Surprisingly, this imagery provides no clear or compelling indication of similar surface features that might be expected to be associated with multi-kiloton tests in May 1998. Satellite imagery discloses a single probable test area that can be correlated with test site photographs released by the Indian government. While there is little doubt that India conducted nuclear tests in 1998, it is not possible to independently confirm the number or yield of these tests using available satellite imagery.
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