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DF-41 - Silo Basing

Joby Warrick reported in The Washington Post 30 June 2021 that about 100 missile silos being detected, which would be an extraordinary number or total, according to the Monterey experts, 145 across China. The Washington Post reported on Wednesday that China has begun the construction of 119 nearly identical sites in a desert near the northwestern city of Yumen, Gansu Province. The report claimed that researchers at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California judged from the commercial satellite images that these construction sites contain features that mirror those seen at existing launch facilities for China's arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. Thus they asserted that China is building more than 100 new missile silos, which, if completed, would represent a "historic shift" for China's nuclear arsenal.

The report also cited an expert from the nonproliferation studies center that such construction boom suggests a major effort to bolster the credibility of China's nuclear deterrent, and the scale of the building spree was "incredible." The researcher, Jeffrey Lewis, also told the Washington Post that the silos are probably intended for DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles which can carry multiple warheads and reach targets as far as the US mainland. It's unknown if the construction sites mentioned by the Washington Post are really silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Silos provide good conditions for the storage and maintenance of missiles and are able to shorten launch time under emergency situations. However, Lewis assumed that the "silos" in Gansu are intended for DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles. In reality, DF-41 is solid-fueled and is loaded on high-mobility launcher vehicles. The necessity of putting it inside a silo is questionable.

Ned Price, US State Department spokesperson said that "the article that was in The Washington Post, the independent analysis that has been done. I think what is fair to say is that these reports and other developments suggest that the PRC’s nuclear arsenal will grow more quickly, and to a higher level than perhaps previously anticipated. This buildup – it is concerning. It raises questions about the PRC’s intent. And for us, it reinforces the importance of pursuing practical measures to reduce nuclear risks. Despite what appears to be PRC obfuscation, this rapid buildup has become more difficult to hide, and it highlights how the PRC appears, again, to be deviating from decades of nuclear strategy based around minimum deterrents.

"These advances, again, to our minds highlight why it’s in everyone’s interests that nuclear powers talk to one another directly about reducing nuclear dangers and avoiding miscalculations. We encourage Beijing to engage with us on practical measures to reduce the risks of destabilizing arms races, potential – potentially destabilizing tensions. This is precisely why President Biden prioritized strategic stability in his engagement with President Putin. The same basis, the same rationale would apply to engagement with another nuclear power, the PRC."