DF-41 - History
China's most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the DF-41, made its debut at the National Day parade in Beijing on 01 October 2019, which Chinese military experts said is a message to the world that China has sufficient and reliable strategic nuclear power to respond to any "nuclear blackmail" from any country. A total of 16 transporter erector launchers of the DF-41 missile were inspected during the parade in Tiananmen Square.
China’s intercontinental ballistic missile DF-41 was expected to be deployed in early 2018, said military expert Yang Chengjun on a TV program broadcasted on China Central Television (CCTV) on 26 November 2017. According to military experts, no failure had occurred during the test launches of DF-41, and the success rates of the US and Russia are around 90% and 85%, respectively. “DF-41 is 4th-generation and China’s latest strategic missile,” said Yang, adding that the reliable missile is quick, mobile, and precise.
Around the turn of the century the US Department of Defense expected the DF-41 to be deployed by the PRC between 2005 and 2010. These years came and went with no DF-41, leading many to conclude the program had been abandoned. The Bill Gertz [what would we do without him?] reported on August 15, 2012 the first flight test of the DF-41 road-mobile ICBM occurred 24 July 2012.
The missile, once thought to be designated CSS-X-10, a designation now applied to the DF-31, was referenced briefly in the Pentagon’s 2011 annual report on the Chinese military [but omitted from the 2012 abbreviated report to Congress]. In addition to the DF-31 and DF-31A, “China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV),” the Pentagon report said in 2011. And in 2013 DOD reported "China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV)."
The strategic development of China is the focus of the world's leading powers, especially the United States. The lack of reliable information leads to a lot of rumors and different interpretations. It seems that China is not averse to adding fuel to the fire, from time to time by publishing the web for pictures of strategic missiles, the authenticity of which is controversial among experts. Three photos widely disseminated on the Internet were said to show a missile said to be China’s intercontinental ballistic missile DF-41. But on closer examination, the "transporter erector launcher" looks more like just a transporter, since it lacks the hydraulics needed to erect the cannister for launch, and the missile cannister looks suspiciously like a petroleum cracking tower.
The three-stage solid-fuel DF-41 was believed to be larger than the DF-31 missile, with a range of up to 12,000 kilometers. While no information has been published concerning the configuration of this missile, the most straightforward path towards its development would be the addition of an enlarged third stage to the DF-31 ICBM. The larger third stage and longer range of the DF-41 wass made possible by the fact that, unlike the DF-31, the size of the DF-41 is not constrained by the requirement that it be fitted into a submarine launch tube. The DF-41 strategic weapons system was projected to have a mobile launch capability providing greatly improved survivability compared with previous Chinese intercontinental missiles. It was anticipated that the DF-41 will be delivered to the 2d Artillery around the year 2010.
No DF-41 / CSS-X-10 was expected to be displayed in the October 1st military parade of the PRC's 60th anniversary since it is still in protracted research and development to the disappointment of many. The DF-41 is believed to be a MIRV armed 10,000 – 12,000 kilometer range ICBM.
As of March 2001 the US Defense Intelligence Agency reported that China had several new strategic missile systems are under development, including two new road-mobile solid-propellant ICBMs. The 8,000 km DF-31 was successfully flight- tested in 1999 and 2000, and tests of the other longer-range mobile ICBM were anticipated within next several years.
In the absence of flight testing, the final operational configuration of this solid fueled missile remained uncertain, particularly with respect to the length of the third stage. However, this derivative of the DF-31 would be unlikely to have a throwweight in excess of 1000 kgs, and most estimates are in the range of 800 kg. Some estimates anticipate that, as with previous Chinese ICBMs, the DF-41 will carry only a single warhead [with a 0.35 - 1.0 MT yield]. In any event, depending on the weapon's yield, it seems unlikely that China would be able to mount more than a few lower-yield [50-100 KT ?] RVs on this ICBM. The American Minuteman III has 3 RVs and a throwweight of 1100 kgs at 12,900 kms, while the MX Peacekeeper carries 10 RVs and has a throwweight of 3950 kgs at 11,000 kms. Both American missiles carry warheads with yields of a few hundred kilotons.
The first test came in 2012 from the Wuzhai Space and Missile Test Center.
China carried out a long-range missile flight test on 13 December 2014 using multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, according to US defense officials. The flight test of a new DF-41 missile, China’s longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile, marks the first test of multiple warhead capabilities for China. The missile test was first reported by the Washington Free Beacon Dec. 18. Defense officials said the DF-41 was launched from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Center, also known as Taiyuan, in central China. The missile landed in an impact zone in a remote region of western China.
PLA Sr. Col. Yang Yujun told reporters at a year-end news briefing: "China has the legitimate right to conduct scientific tests within its border and these scientific tests are not targeting any country or target. What needs to be pointed out is that China pursues a nuclear policy of self-defense and its policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons has not changed."
The American website Washington Free Beacon published an article on 05 June 2018 saying that China recently completed the 10th flight test of the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), marking a substantial step forward for the actual deployment of China's latest and most powerful strategic weapon. An official from the U.S. Department of Defense said that the DF-41 missile was launched from Taiyuan City of northern China's Shanxi Province on May 27, 2018, and travelled thousands of miles before it hit a simulated target in western China's Gobi desert.
The article said that China issued a flight notice that day that designated a no-fly zone in the northwest airspace, same as when it test-flew the DF-41 in 2017. "We noticed the latest flight test and will continue to pay attention to China's weapon development, but we won't disclose any specific information about this test," said Lieutenant Colonel Christopher Logan, spokesperson of the Pentagon. American media reported that the last test shooting of the DF-41 missile happened on November 6 last year and this was the 10th test flight, and it is expected to be commissioned in 2018.`
A piece of information revealed in a government environmental monitoring file indirectly confirmed the existence of a new generation of Chinese intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), the Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) missile. The official website of Northwest China's Shaanxi Environmental Monitoring Center mentioned a site monitoring to guarantee proper conditions for the research of DF-41 missiles in a weekly work summary in June 2014.
Previously China had not acknowledged the existence of DF-41 missiles. At a press conference in December 2013, responding to speculation over the trial of new ICBMs, the Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Geng Yansheng said that the scientific research and drills carried out as planned were normal with no specific targets.
In the report the US Department of Defense issued on June 5, Military and Security Developments involving the People's Republic of China 2014, it mentioned that the China's second artillery had been equipped with DF-31A ICBMs and were developing the DF-41 missiles.
Tang Bohu, a military commentator with Ifeng News, told the Global Times 02 August 2014 that the accidental confirmation of the existence of DF-41 missiles will give the international community, including the US, a new understanding of China's nuclear power. "I believe revealing the information was unintentional. But sooner or later, China will demonstrate these new nuclear weapons at international military parades. Eventually, the weapons will be meant for deterrence."
Song Zhongping, a Beijing-based military affairs commentator, said it is no surprise that China is researching the next generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles. "The development pattern for our military industry is deploying one generation of weaponry, researching the next and forecasting a third. Now that the DF-31 missiles have long been in service, it is normal that research into the next generation is underway," he told the Global Times.
"With proper master of the satellite launching and recovery technologies, one can send a warhead to any place around the globe, in theory," Song said. He added that what matters more than range is precision. "The next generation should be able to carry both nuclear and regular warheads that can perform accurate attacks."
More than a month before the 70th anniversary of the CCP’s military parade, the military parade village in Beijing had already assembled troops and weapons. The latest satellite photos showed that the Chinese Communist Army would probably send 16 Dongfeng-41 intercontinental ballistic missile launch vehicles on 01 October 2019. According to the news on August 19, a satellite photo of the circulating network shows that the military training base in Yangfang, Beijing, China is full of equipment, including various types of weapon vehicles. The outside world found that satellite photos appeared new missile vehicles that had never been disclosed before.
Because the shape of the launch barrel is similar to the Dongfeng-41 intercontinental ballistic missile that has been passively exposed many times before, and there has been a voice before that Dongfeng-41 will be unveiled in 2019. In the satellite photos, there are a total of 18 suspected Dongfeng-41 vehicles. The outside world said that the parade will display 16 of them and the other 2 as backups. In addition, there are 18 suspected Dongfeng-31AG intercontinental ballistic missile vehicles and 18 Dongfeng-26 medium-range ballistic missile vehicles beside Dongfeng-41.
Among them, Dongfeng-31AG and Dongfeng-26 have already made public appearances in the previous military parade. As for the Dongfeng-21 series of medium-range missiles referred to earlier, it is believed that they will not appear in this parade. In addition to ground ballistic missiles, the outside world also speculates whether the latest military parade will show new airborne air-launched ballistic missiles.
China test-fired the Dongfeng-41 intercontinental ballistic missile on 22 November 2019. It is reported that this launch is the 11th test launch of Dongfeng-41 strategic missile. Under normal circumstances, a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile is initially developed and finalized. Basically, about 10 test shots can complete the test and identification work. If the test firing success rate reaches more than 80%, it indicates that the missile is The design is no problem, and the performance is relatively stable, with combat capabilities, and it can be deployed in actual combat.
For the Dongfeng-41 missile, a total of 10 intensive launches were carried out between 2012 and 2018, and all achieved success, indicating that the missile's development and testing were very smooth. And since there was no test firing for more than a year after that, the last National Day military parade sent 16 launch vehicles to see that the Dongfeng-41 missile should have been finalized, otherwise it will not be built in batches. After all, the cost of the ICBM is quite high. expensive. The Dongfeng-41 missile was re-tested after more than a year, indicating that it has officially entered service on duty. This test firing is also different from the previous test launch. It may be an annual routine training mission or combat readiness examination.
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