Lebanon War Scenario - Hizballah Strike South
Hezbollah was prepared for different scenarios as the low-level conflict between it and Israel threatened to spin out into something larger. Iran brought together a loose collection of players to make up its ‘resistance axis’ which is now a cohesive machine. Hezbollah has talked about this idea – calling it the unification of fronts – which is like Article 5 of NATO: an attack on one is an attack on all. This was not the case in the past. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said that his group is ready for “unrestricted warfare” with Israel amid an exchange of cross-border fire between the two sides. “Israel and its army and settlers are the ones who fear war, not Lebanon,” Nasrallah said.
Amal Saad, the author of two books on Hezbollah, said “The war will be ongoing. Nasrallah has said they will keep fighting until Hamas is victorious and if Hamas is weakened and undermined then Hezbollah won’t sit on [its] hands... There’s a strategic objective here … Hezbollah will not leave Hamas on its own.”
“Hezbollah most probably have a strategy ready in case of a limited, protracted war in south Lebanon and they have probably prepared a strategy in case there is a wider full-scale war,” Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at University Saint Joseph in Beirut, said. A limited war would be what Salamey called a “low-intensity asymmetric warfare of attrition” that bleeds “the enemy through low-cost, efficient, and effective skirmishes” – basically a continuation of the current conflict. Hezbollah likely does not want ground invasion of south Lebanon. “Hezbollah, as well as the Iranian regime, realises [an escalation] would be extremely risky and devastating for Lebanon,” he said.
On the ground, Hezbollah trains Special Forces to cross the border into Israel and invade Israeli towns. In this scenario, which Hezbollah has referred to as "Occupation of the Galilee", small groups of well-trained Special Forces from the "Radwan Force" will infiltrate towns, carry out widespread massacres on the residents, and take others captive as leverage for bargaining. The "Radwan Force" is currently operating in Syria and gaining experience in urban ground raids and taking control of towns.
"Part of our plan in the next war is to enter into Galilee, a part of our plan we are capable of, God willing. The important thing is that we have this capability and we have had it for years," said Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an interview. Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement has warned that it is fully ready to fight against Israel after its fighters exchanged fire for days with Israeli soldiers on their border. Both parties have traded shelling and rocket fire across their borders since the Palestinian armed faction Hamas attacked Israel on October 7. Hezbollah may open a new front against Israel at the behest of its leaders and their Iranian backers. That scenario may relieve pressure on Hamas and beleaguered civilians in Gaza, but it would be devastating for Lebanon and costly for Israel.
Israel discovered Hezbollah "attack tunnels" and the UN Middle East envoy confirmed the existence of two of them, which he said constituted a breach of the 2006 truce existing between Israel and Lebanon. Nasrallah indicated the tunnels had been dug long ago and it was "a surprise" that Israel took so long to locate them. "One of the tunnels discovered goes back 13 years," he said, without discussing how old any other tunnels were.
Since the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah, with the help of Iran, has worked ceaselessly to build its strength and improve its ability to harm Israel, including the Israeli home front. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has expressed his destructive intentions in a future war with Israel. Marking the annual "Al-Quds Day," he threatened the "Israeli enemy" that conflict between the two foes would "open the way for hundreds, even thousands of fighters from all over the Arab and Islamic world to participate." Thus, he himself views the conflict as a regional one, striving for the entire Arab world to unite against Israel.
Hezbollah has skilled forces that have undergone systematic training and some of them have operational experience from fighting in Syria, they are prepared in defense formations that include obstacles, fortified positions, advanced anti-tank weapons and multi-track steep weapons and are equipped with collection means and advanced night vision means.
Hezbollah's main effort will be placed on firing hundreds of rockets and missiles at Israel per day. The majority of this barrage will be of high statistical accuracy, with some amount of highly long range missiles capable of reaching nearly the entire State of Israel. According to an IDF Home Front Command report that describes the threat Hezbollah will pose to the Israeli home front in a future war, roughly 1,000-1,500 rockets and missiles will be launched into Israel, thousands of homes will be hit and hundreds of Israeli civilians will be injured or killed. Hundreds of thousands are expected to be evacuated from their homes. This sums up the magnitude of the threat, even despite Israel's air defense systems, which are among the best in the world.
"The reference scenario in the next war - 2,000 missiles per day" (Channel 7, 2022). A year later, after the "Guardian of the Walls" operation, Gordin updated his estimates and stated that in relation to the operation: "In the campaign against Hezbollah, the rate of fire will be 10 times higher , 4,000 rockets per day will be launched towards the home front..
Finkel wrote "The number of non-involved casualties on the Lebanese side is not usually included in the achievement-time-cost triangle, but it is a major factor that keeps statesmen and military personnel from sleeping, and is also an important factor that must be quantified, in this case for the purpose of coordinating expectations with the international community. The heart of the matter is that great international pressure due to a large number of uninvolved casualties may prevent the IDF from continuing to fight and achieving a decisive victory.... If we take the yardstick developed in the operations in Gaza, then if the IDF kills 3,000 Hezbollah fighters ... will probably kill between 1000 and 2000 uninvolved civilians.... the IDF present to Israel and the world a "fingerprint" of about 5,000 non-involved civilians killed - if these remain in combat zones Despite the IDF's warning."
Hanin Ghaddar, Farzin Nadimi, and David Schenker wrote June 21, 2024 "If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean. When Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech this week commemorating a senior commander killed by Israel, his remarks were noteworthy for both their exceptionally menacing tone and their focus on the East Mediterranean. The headline from the June 19 address was his threat to strike Cyprus if it allows Israel to use the island’s air bases or other military facilities during a future war in Lebanon—an understandable point of media focus given the republic’s status as a European Union member state."
Hezbollah’s threat to Cyprus aimed to enable the party to leave its mark in the Mediterranean Sea, as the Houthis are doing in the Red Sea, paralyze global trade, and raise the prices of energy and goods, in addition to the Iranians’ control of the Strait of Hormuz, this makes the region pause and look at Hezbollah differently.
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