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Third Lebanon War - Scenarios

According to Germany's Bild, Israel initially planned to begin an offensive operation in Lebanon in the second half of July 2024. Israel claims it will begin an offensive operation on Lebanon in the second half of July unless Hezbollah ceases its fire, the German Bild reported on 01 July 2024, citing diplomatic sources. Lebanese Islamic Resistance group Hezbollah has repeatedly said it will not halt its attacks unless Israel ends its ongoing genocide in Gaza. Israeli military action on Lebanon could drag in regional and possibly international actors.

Among the most pressing concerns is Hezbollah's refusal to disarm, as called for in the 1989 Taif Accord that ended the Lebanese civil war and more recently in U.N. Security Council Resolutions 1559 and, again, 1701. The substantial demilitarization, if not the complete disarmament, of Hezbollah is required to transform Lebanon from a perpetually war-torn society and geopolitical pawn into a durable 21st century state. As long as Hezbollah is armed, the group can dominate Lebanon through threat of force.

"Diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent more escalation" between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. "Hezbollah's provocations threaten to drag the Israeli and Lebanese people into a war that they do not want. Such a war would be a catastrophe for Lebanon and it would be devastating for innocent Israeli and Lebanese civilians," US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said.

Shelling on Israel's northern border has led to the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from areas on both sides of the frontier. Amos J. Hochstein, who was born in Israel to Jewish parents serving in the country’s military, was the get-go between Israel and the US, particularly in regard to the energy sector. Hochstein was tasked with mediating Lebanon-Israel maritime border negotiations.

The head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Aerospace Force, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh issued a warning to Israel amid fears of an Israel-Hezbollah war. The senior Iranian military commander reportedly said Iran is waiting for a chance to launch another direct attack on Israel as a follow-up to a barrage of hundreds of missiles and drones it fired in April. Meanwhile, a former Iranian official warned that Israel's potential Lebanon offensive may trigger a regional war involving all Arab nations.

Rami Khouri, a political analyst from the American University of Beirut, said 04 July 2024 while Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to thump the drums of war with Hezbollah, its military is unprepared for a second front. “Netanyahu, especially, keeps saying we are going to attack Lebanon. We are going to destroy Hezbollah. But they don’t have the capacity to do that while they are still fighting a war in Gaza,” Khouri told Al Jazeera. Netanyahu said on 30 June 2024 that Israel was winding down operations in Rafah and will redirect to Lebanon.

If negotiations could result in assurances to Israel that Hezbollah’s and its allies would not be present in a 6-10km [4-6 mile] radius from the border, and that they have no intention of using Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces to attack Israel, this may constitute a face-saving exit strategy.

Strategic and military expert, Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi, said 22 September 2024 that the Lebanese Hezbollah does not seek an open war with the Israeli occupation army , but it will not allow the rules of engagement and deterrence to be broken, suggesting two scenarios for future field developments. Al-Duwairi explained - during his analysis of the military scene in the region for Al Jazeera- that Hezbollah is required to work in a balance between avoiding going into open war or breaking the rules of engagement and deterrence.

He pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants a broad war to shuffle the cards in light of the lack of real movement and response from Iran since the assassination of the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) Ismail Haniyeh on its territory. Al-Duwairi believes that Netanyahu broke the rules of deterrence after the recent strikes (the bombing of wireless communications devices and the assassination of important military leaders in Hezbollah). He added that what he did was a blatant challenge, "so Hezbollah had to respond," describing the party's response as "a minimal response in terms of the type of missiles, range, and targets."

Earlier, Hezbollah announced that it had bombed military sites in the northern Israeli city of Haifa with “Fadi 1” and “Fadi 2” missiles for the first time since the start of border clashes with Tel Aviv about a year ago. The bombing resulted in the injury of a number of Israelis and significant material damage.

Regarding the proposed scenarios for future developments, the strategic expert says that the first scenario may be the continuation of the current situation in terms of quantity and quality by the occupation army, such as continuing to launch intensive air strikes and carry out major assassinations, in addition to technical surprises such as the explosions of pagers and walkie -talkies. According to Al-Duwairi, Israel aims through this scenario to have Hezbollah accept the Israeli conditions and implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which stipulates the withdrawal of its forces beyond the Litani River.

The military expert believes that the second expected scenario may be an Israeli ground invasion, as the Radwan Force - Hezbollah's elite forces - is present in southern Lebanon and the Syrian Golan. Al-Duwairi wondered, "Will Hezbollah, after the recent strikes it was subjected to, keep the elite forces in the Golan or will it withdraw them to reinforce its forces in southern Lebanon?" He added, "If the Radwan force remains in the Syrian Golan, this scenario will tempt Netanyahu to expand the ground operation towards the east and north," and continued, saying that the talk is about a double Israeli attack in order to achieve success in developing it.

Al-Duwairi assumed that Hezbollah would withdraw its elite forces from the Syrian Golan Heights due to the vast geographical area, and that Hezbollah’s defense method is based on defending strong combat points and nodes. The military expert believes that between Hezbollah's combat nodes "there may be room for maneuver for the occupation army, according to a scenario discussed by the commander of the Northern Military Region, which calls for the establishment of a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, the area of which has not yet been determined." Al-Duwairi concluded that the fighting in southern Lebanon will be different from the fighting in the Gaza Strip , adding that the occupation army has an old obsession, as it had previously reached the Litani and was stationed in that area for 20 years before withdrawing under the blows of the resistance.