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Ukraine - MGM-140 ATACMS - Effect

The ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missile system was designed to hit point targets such as command posts, missile launchers, air defense facilities, communication nodes, and depots located deep within the enemy’s defenses. In addition, ATACMS can operate in all weather conditions and at any time of the day. The M270 and M142 launchers are used to launch the missile. The system has an MGM-140B missile with a maximum flight range of up to 300.

Long-range missiles are an all-important lacuna in Ukraine’s arsenal. Kyiv has long demanded ATACM missiles, which have a range of over 300 km. Washington has refused to give them. The Ukrainian delegation to the USA under the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would ask Washington to supply Ukraine with ATACMS, Grey Eagle and Reaper UAVs. "During the meeting with Biden and his national security team, the Ukrainian delegation was expected to make another round of pleas for long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, and Grey Eagle and Reaper drones, according to a person familiar with the discussions," reported Politico 21 December 2022. It was noted that the US officials are not ready to budge when it comes to this topic. The White House also categorically refuses to send ATACMS.

While some versions of the missiles can go as far as about 180 miles (300 kilometers), the ones sent to Ukraine had a shorter range of and carry cluster munitions, which when fired, open in the air, releasing hundreds of bomblets, rather than a single warhead. The version used by Ukraine hit targets in Berdyansk, on the Azov Sea coast, and in the occupied eastern Luhansk region. The Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted a successful operation called DRAGONFLY to destroy airfields in the cities of Berdiansk and Luhansk. According to the Ukrainian military, nine Russian helicopters, an antiaircraft missile launcher, an ammunition warehouse and various special equipment being held on airfields were destroyed. “The ammunition warehouse in Berdiansk was detonating until 04:00 a.m. In Luhansk, the detonation lasted until 11:00 a.m.,” the report states. This blow can easily be called one of the most painful in the entire period of the SVO.

The consequences of an attack by ATACMS missiles on the Berdyansk airport may surpass in destructiveness the result of another well-known attack carried out by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Saki airbase in annexed Crimea on August 9, 2022, according to the main version - the Ukrainian anti-ship complex "Neptune" adapted for the destruction of ground targets. Then, according to various estimates, from 7 to 11 Russian Su-24 and Su-30SM aircraft were destroyed.

Since then, Russian military bloggers had constantly written about the need to build concrete shelters for aircraft at military bases of the Russian Army. As the attack on Berdyansk airport shows, their pleas went unheard, despite the fact that the media already wrote a month ago about the US decision to provide ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.

“Was the attack unexpected for the Russian army? Yes and no. “Yes” - because throughout September there were publications in the American media that the supply of these missiles had been agreed upon. “No” - because you still never know when they will be used, where they will fly, what modification will be used,” answers the question of Radio Liberty, the founder of the investigative group Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) Ruslan Leviev ... CIT also notes that the construction of shelters requires large resources.

“In a good way, capital structures are needed here. What can the airfield command do, even if it read the news and took it seriously? Caponiers cannot be built quickly. You can ask the management to relocate aircraft further away, but it is unlikely that the command will take such “whining” seriously.” with reference to an article in the Washington Post,” say the group’s analysts (this publication was one of the first, citing its sources, to report in September that the United States had agreed to transfer ATACMS missiles to Ukraine).

In connection with the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ missile attack on the airfield in Berdyansk, some parallels can be drawn with a series of attacks on the airfield in Chernobaevka last spring, when the Russian Aerospace Forces aviation was still based there. At that time, despite the proximity to the front line, the helicopters and other equipment located in Chernobaevka were gathered in one heap and not covered in any way, which at one point led to an effective fire raid by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as can be seen in photos.

Unlike Chernobaevka, the Berdyansk airfield was much further from the front, but the lesson was learned: the helicopters began to disperse, digging caponiers and fortifications for equipment. It was in this form that he met the Ukrainian missile attack. What was not there were serious shelters for aircraft, but there are none at air bases throughout Russia. At the same time, the location of the airfield simultaneously made it possible to protect it from attacks by GMLRS missiles, which did not reach the range, and to maintain the efficiency of sorties to support the defense in Zaporozhye. Single launches of the Tochka-U OTRK did not pose much of a threat.

Thus, it was not entirely correct to say that no conclusions were drawn and learning disability occurred again. Apparently, this was a new type of missile threat, and as has always happened before, Russia was not prepared for the new threat.

After ATACMS strikes on airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk, the Russians were trying to move their aviation away. Specifically, they are attempting to relocate from the territory of Ukrainian Crimea, according to a statement by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. "After our troops struck the airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk, we can see that the occupiers are relocating their aviation further. Specifically, they are attempting to redeploy it from the territory our Crimea. And this is a positive sign," the statement read.

ATACMS significantly expands Ukraine's ability to strike deep behind enemy lines. "We are talking about the destruction of Russian facilities located not only on the mainland of Ukraine - in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but also on the Crimean peninsula," emphasizes Information Resistance group Oleksandr Kovalenko. "Ukraine has received M-39 cluster ATACMS. These missiles can cover a large area. There are other cluster ATACMS, more modern versions of the M-39A, with a range of up to 300 and 275 submunitions of M74, which I am sure we will soon receive, as well as versions with a high-explosive warhead. Nevertheless, the M-39 is quite enough to deliver a high-precision strike on an airfield, repair base or facility with a large number of personnel or equipment."

Military observer Denys Popovych: "If we take into account the range of the missiles that were handed over to us - 165 km - then everything up to Dzhankoy falls under their influence." These are the airfields in Berdiansk, Melitopol, Chaplintsyi, Strilkove, and possibly even Dzhankoy itself, but it is practically on the verge of being hit by these missiles. "In the end, it's not just about airfields - these are warehouses, headquarters, troop concentrations - anything our command deems necessary to hit," he emphasizes.

This will have an impact, first of all, on the actions of Russian army aviation, as they will have to be redeployed far to Crimea and even to the territory of the Russian Federation to avoid being hit. "At the same time, the Russians should keep in mind the existence of M39A1 missiles with a range of 300 kilometers, which can also be at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and this puts the whole of Crimea at risk," emphasizes Mr. Popovych.

Moreover, redeployment to more remote airfields increases the time of helicopter approach, which affects the speed of combat missions, increases the amount of fuel, increases the consumption of motor resources, and complicates logistics. "If we assume that the distance from Berdiansk to the front line is 90 km, it will take about 20-25 minutes for a normal flight (the cruising speed of a Ka-52 helicopter is 260 km/h). However, if the airfield is moved 200 kilometers, it will take about an hour. During this time, a lot can change at the front line," states Denys Popovych.

Colonel Roman Svitan, Armed Forces Reserve, also emphasizes that after the attacks on the Berdiansk and Luhansk airfields, the Russians will most likely be forced to move their aircraft to a distance from which they cannot be hit by ATACMS. "This means that Russian army aviation will no longer be based in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, in the Ukrainian Azov Sea region, and possibly even in Crimea. After all, no matter how many helicopters Russia has, if they are in the ATACMS target area, they will be destroyed. In my opinion, enemy aircraft will now leave the occupied territories of Ukraine and relocate to Russian cities near the Azov Sea, such as Yeysk, as well as to the airfields of Rostov, Voronezh, and Belgorod," the military expert said.

"Russians use helicopters 3-4 times a week to disrupt the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Most of the helicopters are in the Melitopol direction - about 20. Now some of them had been destroyed. This, accordingly, significantly reduces their potential in this area. Now the Russians had a problem with where to put the helicopters, because Berdiansk may turn into a new Chornobaivka," ironically says Oleksandr Musienko, director of the Center for Legal Studies.

Until recently, Ukraine had two types of western long-range missiles in service - Storm Shadow and Scalp EG, as well as a missile of its own production, probably a modernized Neptune. Now this list has been expanded to include ATACMS. "Storm Shadow and Scalp EG are subsonic cruise missiles, and they do an excellent job, especially given the extreme difficulty of intercepting these cruise missiles by Russian air defense systems. But they had two unpleasant nuances. The first is related to the carrier, which is the Su-24 frontline bomber. First of all, we have a limited number of them. The Su-24s are tied to airfields that are not only subject to occasional attacks by the occupiers, but are also monitored," says Oleksandr Kovalenko. "It is very difficult to conduct an unnoticeable, highly secretive attack when you have a carrier, and the carrier has a location, even if it is not the only one."

But the second nuance was even more unpleasant: limited ammunition. "No matter how good Storm Shadow and Scalp EG are, their number is small, and the UK and France themselves have a limited supply of these missiles, and their production is not fast enough to produce the strike capability required for the Joint Strike Force for unlimited use per day," the military analyst added.

"... there are more ATACMS in storage in the US than Storm Shadow and Scalp EG in the UK and France combined, and many times over. But the most important thing is that this missile allows us to significantly expand the range of launch locations and increase the surprise of strikes," says Mr. Kovalenko.

Due to the fact that ATACMS is used by M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS, there will be no constant link to the location of deployment, and the Russians would not be able to track the direction of the threat: "There are dozens of M142s and M270s along the entire combat line that can use ATACMS at any time. Let me remind you of the archaic Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty). Its essence was precisely the non-proliferation of such missiles for land-based systems, since it is more difficult to track the movement of such a launcher to the launch position than to track an airplane."

Thus, Ukraine would be able to significantly diversify the geography of long-range missiles and significantly increase its ability to successfully advance the Joint Forces Operation and liberate the occupied territories. "By combining ATACMS with other missiles, we will achieve maximum efficiency," emphasized Oleksandr Kovalenko.

Ukrainian experts doubted that the Russians would be able to respond with anything, and most importantly, to counteract ATACMS. "What could be the answer? Unless they scare us with Iskanders. But this will not change anything for us. We have been seeing their Iskanders flying at our towns and villages for almost two years now. So they definitely won't be able to surprise us. Try to intercept ATACMS. But this is quite difficult to do with most of the means that the Russians have. Yes, according to the declared characteristics, that is, on paper, the S-400 Triumph and Buk-M3 are supposedly capable of doing this, but whether this is really the case is a big question. So far, they have not faced such missiles," emphasizes Oleksandr Kovalenko.

Denys Popovych reminds that ATACMS is a ballistic missile. "It has a high speed, reaches the target in just 2-3 minutes, and therefore requires air defense systems with appropriate characteristics that would provide a quick response and have high-speed missiles. Russia has such systems. In particular, these are the S-300V and S-400 modifications. But they do not have many such systems, it is impossible to cover everything with them, and they are needed elsewhere. In addition, they themselves turn into a target. Therefore, the long-awaited arrival of ATACMS provides us with new opportunities and creates additional problems for the enemy."

Roman Svitan adds that the peculiarity of the ATACMS missile is that it is not just a ballistic missile, but a "pseudo-ballistic" missile. In other words, the American missile "glides" along a ballistic trajectory, changing direction from time to time. "Air defenses are able to detect ATACMS and even launch a missile to intercept it, but because of this 'pseudo-balistic' trajectory, it may not hit the target. This is due to the fact that at the final stage, ATACMS changes its direction of movement [unlike a classical ballistic missile, which moves straight],» explains the Armed Forces Reserve Colonel.

ATACMS is called a "quasi-ballistic" missile. “This is more of a slang term that means that it can change its trajectory in flight,” notes the Conflict Intelligence Team. “A conventional ballistic missile has an “active” part of the trajectory when it takes off. Then the engines turn off and it flies by inertia. So "Tochka" flies, for example, and "Iskander" or ATACMS can change the trajectory and maneuver after launch. The inertial guidance system consists of gyroscopes and accelerometers. It is less accurate than GPS, but is not susceptible to the effects of electronic warfare. The main inaccuracy "runs up" precisely due to gyroscopes, depending on the distance the rocket flies. The further it flies, the less accuracy there is, with GPS there is no such problem," says CIT.

“ATACMS will be more difficult to intercept than the same S-200 missiles, due to the fact that it can change its trajectory in flight. Theoretically, Russia has S-300VM complexes that can intercept such targets, but there are few of them and they are very expensive,” – say Conflict Intelligence Team analysts. Another advantage of ATCMS missiles was their ease of loading and compatibility with the HIMARS mobile multiple launch rocket systems that Ukraine already has, with the difference that a container for “regular” missiles can hold 6 of them, while a container for ATAMS can hold only two ( in the case of using an M142 wheeled vehicle - one).