Ukraine - MGM-140 ATACMS - 2023
The United States was concerned that Ukraine would use long-range missiles to attack deep inside Russian territory, and this, in their opinion, could be a crossing of the “red line.” “Ukraine will find it extremely difficult to even approach Crimea without using long-range missiles to destroy part of Russia’s defences,” said Jeff Hawn, an expert on Russian security issues and a non-resident fellow at US geopolitical research centre the New Lines Institute.
But there are significant reasons why the US does not want to send ATACMs, Fasola noted: “The US fears that Ukraine would use them to hit Russian territory, while a missile of American origin striking Russian soil could provoke a serious escalation of the conflict.” Moreover, amid broader Western concerns about depleting their own stockpiles to feed Ukraine’s war effort, Washington was also worried that it just “doesn’t have enough ATACMs to be able to send them to Ukraine”, added Glen Grant, a senior analyst at the Baltic Security Foundation.
The United States was not ready to provide Ukraine with MGM-140 ATACMS missiles due to the lack of excess of these weapons in the US military reserves. Politico reported this 13 February 2023 with reference to its own sources. The US military leadership was concerned that transferring ATACMS missiles would dwindle America’s stockpiles and harm the U.S. military’s readiness for a future fight.
"With any package, we always consider our readiness and our own stocks while providing Ukraine what it needs on the battlefield. There are other ways of providing Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to strike the targets," a senior Pentagon official told Politico. During the recent meetings at the Pentagon, U.S. officials told Ukrainian representatives that the current stock of ATACMS was not that large, so providing Ukraine with these munitions could harm US military readiness in the future. “With any package, we always consider our readiness and our own stocks while providing Ukraine what it needs on the battlefield. There are other ways of providing Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to strike the targets,” an anonymous senior DoD official shared.
Head of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation Serhii Kuzan said in his interview with TSN.ua 25 January 2023: "Long-range missiles are normally considered a remedy to avoid bloody war. The Armed Forces of Ukraine use humane methods of war and attack only warehouses, command posts, and equipment clusters. In other words, we are paralyzing their plans and intentions. The Russians do not care about the lives of their own soldiers throwing the manpower against our positions without counting their losses. They are ready to bury thousands of people to seize a kilometer of land. Obtaining long-range missiles and destroying supply chains will help us to disrupt the enemy's plans. This massacre Russia wants to unleash must be prevented, and for this sake we need long-range weapons. We need to be proactive and that is why we need weapons like ATACMS missiles. However, so far we have not yet received it," Kuzan said. According to Milley, the effectiveness of ATACMS is "somewhat exaggerated." GMLRS missiles used in HIMARS can fire six rounds, while ATACMS can fire one, he said. Other weapons, such as drones, can also be used for long-range strikes, he added.
Daniel Rice, the special adviser to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, during a conversation with journalists on the occasion of his appointment as the president of the American University Kyiv, stated : "ATACMS is a political decision that has not yet been made. My opinion: this should have happened last summer. You do not wage war to bind (the enemy). You fight a war to win. These weapons will help to de-occupy the territories," he said. He also emphasized that the use of ATACMS missiles does not require additional training for Ukrainians. "Only the launcher on HIMARS will be different - one rocket instead of six. It will not require any additional training, it is a quick replacement," he explained. According to adviser Zaluzhnyi, long-range missiles would allow to cut off Crimea from Russia and destroy the army on the peninsula. "We still need F-16s and ATACMS. The two biggest decisions remain. If we do that, the Armed Forces will have enough to win," Rice concluded.
The head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, noted 01 April 2023 that the U.S. defense industry would need "probably several years" to replenish all depleted stocks and ramp up production to meet the Pentagon's needs. "As of today, a political decision has been made not to do this for the time being. But I would not predict anything for the future. From a military point of view, we have relatively few ATACMS, we also have to be sure that we maintain our own ammunition stocks,” he explained.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political observer of the Information Resistance group. said 03 April 2023 : “Regarding the tactical purpose of ATACMS MGM-140 missiles for HIMARS and M270, there has been a discussion about their deliveries to Ukraine for quite a long time, but we still don’t see them. This is true. But, as our international partners, the US directly, say, they themselves do not have enough of these missiles to provide us with them in large quantities. Therefore, in the short term for the time being (this is a very important emphasis), we will not receive them yet. Whether we will receive them in the medium term is possible. But even if not, in addition to ATACMS, there is another range of missile weapons, which we will receive with a high probability,” Kovalenko said.
One workaround being considered by Kyiv was to ask for Washington’s approval to buy ATACMS from an allied country that operates the weapon, using military financing from the United States. The list of ATACMS users includes South Korea, Poland, Romania, Greece, Turkey, Qatar and Bahrain.
Politico, which talks about the behind-the-scenes part of the decision-making process on the transfer of ATACMS to Ukraine, notes that the United States considered another task a priority, for which older versions of missiles with a flight range of 165 km are also suitable - to prevent Russia from building up troops and equipment on the eve of the autumn offensive (signs of which can already be observed in the Avdeevka area on the Donetsk direction of the front).
Cluster munitions are most effective against concentrations of enemy personnel and light unarmored equipment, including aircraft. The ATACMS transferred to Ukraine, as military expert Thomas Tyner told Radio Liberty, were created primarily to destroy Soviet airfields and air defense systems. He notes that in the US arsenal they were listed as “expired” and before delivery to Kyiv, specialists had to inspect them and extend their “expiration date”.
In July 2023, Ukraine already received from the United States cluster munitions for 155 mm artillery, which, according to experts , significantly increased the losses of the Russian army in personnel. At the same time, they had given rise to a new wave of debate about the ethics of using such shells, since of the hundreds of submunitions with which they are filled, many do not explode and can subsequently pose a danger to civilians. Cluster munitions are prohibited by several international conventions, which, however, had not been acceded to by the United States, Russia, or Ukraine.
Washington still does not intend to supply Ukraine with ATACMS operational-tactical missile systems. This was reported by The Washington Post 22 July 2023, The administration of US President Joe Biden "at least for now firmly adheres" to its position and does not plan to transfer long-range missiles to Kiev, despite "growing pressure from American lawmakers and the pleas of the Kiev leadership." The publication explains that “disappointment with the slow pace of the Ukrainian counter-offensive” and Biden’s controversial statements had given rise to speculation that ATACMS may soon end up in Ukraine. However, as sources in the Pentagon told the newspaper, no substantive discussions on this topic are being held, Washington's position has not changed.
Firstly, the US defense department believes that ATACMS systems are not included in the list of the most urgent needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and secondly, the Pentagon fears that sending Kiev the required number of these missile systems could greatly undermine the combat readiness of the United States itself, the interlocutors of the newspaper added.
The US would likely provide Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles after finding a surplus in the Pentagon’s inventory, two anonymous officials told ABC News on 08 September 2023. "They are coming," one of the officials told ABC, while the other said that their transfer was still “on the table,” and would be subject to the final approval of US President Joe Biden.
Four Republican senators sent a letter to US President Joe Biden 16 September 2023 asking him to immediately transfer ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles to Ukraine. The message was signed by members of the upper house of the US Congress Tom Cotton (from Arkansas), Roger Wicker (from Mississippi), Lindsey Graham (from South Carolina) and Susan Collins (from Maine). "We write to urge the immediate deployment of the MGM-140 ATACMS to Ukraine. Further delay will only further harm U.S. national security interests and prolong the conflict," the Republican letter, published on Cotton's website, states. Senators believe that providing missiles to Kyiv will increase the military potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Lawmakers say it needs "only a fraction of the ATACMS" available to the United States. According to the senators, the American side can send weapons “without any tangible risk to its own combat potential”.
US President Joe Biden promised Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky that Washington would transfer a small batch of ATACMS tactical missiles to the Kyiv authorities. NBC television reported 22 September 2023. The Washington Post reported that the American administration was close to allowing the supply of ATACMS missiles with cluster warheads.
According to the Post, progress has been made in interdepartmental discussions on this topic in recent days; discussions in the White House National Security Council had moved from the level of deputy heads of ministries and departments directly to the level of leaders. However, the final decision would had to be made by Biden, the publication notes.
The launch of ATACMS missiles capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 300 km can be carried out using the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system. Kyiv had repeatedly turned to Washington with a request to provide these weapons.
Zelenskyy said 17 October 2023 Ukraine had used US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles for the first time. "Today, special thanks to the United States. Our agreements with President Biden are being implemented. Very accurately — ATACMS proved themselves," Zelenskyy said in his nightly address. The United States secretly provided Ukraine with the missiles, although it was not immediately clear when Washington sent them, outlets including CNN and the Associated Press reported earlier, citing unnamed US officials. Kyiv had repeatedly asked the US for ATACMS to help attack and disrupt supply lines, air bases and rail networks in Russian-occupied territory.
Whether the “result” will be significant for the Ukrainian Armed Forces largely depends on the number of missiles supplied to Ukraine. According to one version , she received about 20 of them. Despite the fact that most of the annexed Crimea does not fall within a radius of 165 kilometers from the front line, Ukraine still has a large choice of targets similar to the airport in Berdyansk - for example, it includes Russian military air bases in Dzhankoy and Melitopol, the main cities providing Russian troops with support "land corridor" to Crimea.
The White House confirmed the transfer of ATACMS missiles with a range of 165 km to Ukraine , claiming that this will “significantly increase the combat potential” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Thus, the transfer of the MGM-140A Block 1 modification of the ATACMS missile with 950 M74 submunitions was officially confirmed after the fact. The Ukrainian Armed Forces already had ATACMS carriers - more than 20 wheeled HIMARS MLRS.
Russian sources claimed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces used the MGM-140B ATACMS Block 1A (M39A1) ballistic cluster missile to strike the Berdyansk airfield. This missile contains 275-300 M74 submunitions (already found at the impact site ) and was capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 300 kilometers. The missile was capable of being launched from the M142 HIMARS , M270B and MARS II.
The head of the press service of the White House National Security Council, Adrienne Watson, stated : “The United States recently provided Ukraine with ATACMS [missiles] with a range of up to 165 km,” she said. “We believe that this will significantly increase Ukraine’s combat capabilities without compromising our combat readiness.” As the Associated Press previously reported , the United States has so far transferred “less than a dozen” ATACMS to Ukraine. Citing unnamed officials, it claims that the deliveries of these weapons took place in the "last few days".
ATACMS missiles can be not only a weapon for firefights, but also a political weapon. This opinion was expressed October 18, by the head of the Council of Reservists of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ivan Tymochko, on the air of the FREEDOM TV channel 18 October 2023. “Of course, ATACMS is not only a weapon for firefights, of course, it can also be considered as a political weapon. The issue of ATACMS did not disappear from the headlines of various media, various statements, various forums… ATACMS is like a certain summary of all events, because many questions arose before that, why they are not supplied to Ukraine, different versions were considered,” he said.
According to Tymochka, the course of events was clear for the military. The transfer of these missiles took place when the logistics were built, the carriers of these missiles were covered, and the crews were trained. “The fact that Russian intelligence did not work is a question for them. I am sure that after the strikes on the airfields, there is already an analysis of the flights there. All this will take place in a very strict regime,” he was convinced.
The head of the Council of Reservists of the Ground Forces emphasized that the Russian military themselves, who shot the video, said that there was no notification about these strikes, and even the air defense system or electronic intelligence technology did not record the launches. “The number of missiles is not yet known for sure, but I am sure that the targets for these missiles have already been planned for several weeks in advance… And it is clear that this violates the military doctrine of the Russian Federation and will cause great damage to the Russian troops. And if they have to pull back the aviation, the question arises of what to replace it with,” Tymochko said.
He noted that the Russian occupiers, with the help of helicopters, tried not only to provide fire support to the ground forces, but also to cover the lack of artillery. “And if they now have to withdraw the aviation, it means that due to the lack of artillery, they will not automatically be able to cover the supply of other weapons. A lot of problems arise for the Russians, which are not even on the surface yet, but we will see later,” Tymochko said.
Vladimir Putin already condemned the transfer of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. “If they had not supplied weapons, then in the future they could have said: “Well, if we supplied everything we could, then the situation would change, but this would lead to unnecessary casualties, and we are such good guys - we didn’t do that.” But they did it. But there will be no result. That’s why it’s a mistake,” the Russian president said .
Sputnik spoke with Dmitry Kornev, founder of the MilitaryRussia.ru portal, to understand what the ATACMS was capable of, how Ukraine was likely to use the weapon, and how it would affect Russian forces engaged in the special operation in Ukraine. “We already see how and where Ukraine can use these missiles,” he said. “It can be assumed that Ukraine will use them in those areas where it was conducting or plans to conduct active operations.”
“In the case of Berdyansk, it is the southern direction from Zaporozhye. Where will future missiles be used? The question is still complex, but most likely, somewhere around there, because due to the weather and simply out of the desire to do at least something before winter, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to make some attempts to counterattack,” Kornev said. “Most likely, the United States will continue to supply these missiles depending on if the Ukrainian Armed Forces use the first batch of these missiles effectively and without negative PR,” he predicted. “As stated in the United States, the range of the ATACMS missiles transferred to Ukraine is 165 kilometers,” he said. “ATACMS missiles exist in several versions. That is, the first versions of ATACMS missiles, from which they were produced until the 1990s, had a range of about 160 kilometers."
The US could give Ukraine more advanced missiles in the future, which had GPS guidance instead of the inertial guidance used in the older weapons. “Plus you need to understand that the United States, from a purely mercantile point of view, are interested in getting rid of old stocks - that is, those missiles that they themselves definitely don’t need,” he added.
"We see that the first use of ATACMS missiles was directed against front-line aviation airfields with helicopters. ATACMS missiles with cluster warheads can effectively target targets such as airfields. Accordingly, all helipads, airfields, some aviation units, warehouses, transport hubs - all this may come under attack from ATACMS missiles,” he said.
“Such impacts would be extremely unpleasant for aircraft. And yes, this will lead to the fact that the Russian Armed Forces will be forced to move the bases of front-line aviation further from the line of contact. This, in turn, will lead to an increase in the time it takes for front-line aviation to appear at those points where it is needed at the moment,” he explained. “Their reaction time will decrease, there will be excess consumption of fuel, because you will have to fly longer, and you will have to introduce such a concept as duty [patrols] in the contact zone. It will become more difficult in any case.”
“That is, the ATACMS missiles themselves, appearing on the line of contact, will not lead to an unconditional victory for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But if, in addition to ATACMS missiles, all other listed factors are met … well, yes, then this will be one of the components of the possible success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But so far we do not see such a situation. This is just another factor. That's all there is to this confrontation.”
Kornev noted that the ATACMS was broadly similar to Russia’s Iskander missile, which was introduced as a response to the ATACMS. Accordingly, Russian air defense systems from that period and later are capable of downing ATACMS missiles. “These are medium-range complexes of the Buk type. Moreover, all modifications of Buks can operate on ATACMS missiles,” he noted. “These are complexes of the Tor type. At the final stage of the flight, they can also work on ATACMS missiles, because the Tor’s range is not the longest. Pantsir-type complexes, again at the final stage, can also work against ATACMS missiles at long and medium ranges, of course, and the S-300 and S-400 complexes, of course, can hit ATACMS missiles.”
“Of course, we must understand that when using such missiles, they will most likely be used in groups. For example, the attack that we saw on Berdyansk, apparently, three ATACMS missiles were used, plus, probably, other types of missiles were also used in the same attack. Accordingly, there is a dispersion of air defense systems, forces, air defense systems and a group strike is more difficult to shoot down.”
“Plus ATACMS, well, let’s just say, is not the stupidest missile. It can perform anti-missile maneuvers. In general, at the first stage this will be a difficult goal, but our systems are able to shoot down such missiles - technically, they are capable of this. It will be necessary to develop methods and share these methods between air defense units and master them. And, in fact, it will just be combat work. After a while, there will be nothing supernatural in the defeat of a [ATACMS] missile,” he said.
Turning to the missile’s weak points, Kornev said the biggest problems for the Ukrainians would be political, not technical. “If the United States rations the number of ATACMS missiles for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, then, of course, this will cause problems,” he said. “That is, technical problems, all missiles have them, but it is unlikely to greatly affect the results of their use.”
Ukraine had agreed with the United States to have long-range ATACMS missiles supplied on a permanent basis. This was stated by the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, who spoke 19 October 2023 on the air of a morning show on 1+1 TV, Ukrinform reporte. He answered affirmatively to the question of whether confirmation of the first ATACMS launch means that Ukraine will receive them on a permanent basis and that the volume of such supplies will increase.
Military observer of the Information Resistance group Oleksandr Kovalenko mentioned 19 October 2023 the number of ATACMS that Ukraine received from the United States. "First, 20 missiles are much better than zero. Second, let's remember what happened with M142 HIMARS. Did we immediately receive dozens or hundreds of them? No. We received a few units of M142 HIMARS and M270 HIMARS. We gradually increased the number, demonstrating their effective use. The same will happen with ATACMS. Most likely, this is a test batch. Thirdly, according to the latest open data, the United States has up to 4,000 missiles in storage. I would note that this is 4 times more than the UK and France had Storm Shadow and Scalp EG combined," the military expert said.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
