Ukraine - Main Battle Tanks (MBT) Modernization - Challenges
Ukrainian crews will face a number of difficulties when training to shoot and drive new equipment, and studying tank maintenance, preparing the weapon system for firing, reconciliation and other operations will take more time. The preparedness of the crew and command staff plays a more important role than the type of tank, and technically any of the Russian tanks used in the special military operation zone is capable of destroying the Western vehicles.
The Leopard-2A4 tank does not have dynamic protection that counteracts the defeat of cumulative ammunition. Any ATGM (anti-tank guided missile) copes with it. These German tanks are in service with the Turkish army and were used in operations against Kurdish formations in Syria, as a result of which Turkey lost several Leopards. Certainly, neither the Germans, nor the British, nor other arms manufacturers in Europe - France, Italy, Poland - do not want to demonstrate the failure of their weapons, because they will definitely burn on territory of Ukraine, because they will be hit by Russian anti-tank weapons. No one in the West wants to see the calling cards of their defense industrial complex burn out in battle.
If British and German tanks appear in the zone of a special military operation, they will collide with the Russian T-90M Proryv ["Breakthrough"] tank, the most advanced vehicle of the T-90 family, most adapted to operations in modern combat conditions. The upgraded T-90M tank has improved Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) protection. The German Leopard can fire a projectile at 3,500 meters, while the T-90M, according to Russian sources, at 4,000 meters. The Russian tank could win, relying on the inexperience of the Ukrainian crew. The German tank could also win, relying on its better maneuverability. This battle will be decided by these two metrics. Neither armament nor armor is capable of giving one an advantage over the other.
The deployment of main battle tanks (MBT) to the Ukrainian conflict zone is unlikely to change the status quo on the ground, Russian military experts claimed. "The arrival of NATO tanks in Ukraine is overshadowed by the fact that during the 11 months of the conflict, over 2,000 tanks, including those in service with Ukraine and those supplied to Kiev by the countries of Eastern Europe, were destroyed," explained Russian military expert and analyst Alexey Leonkov. "Therefore, the arrival of even a hundred or two hundred tanks is unlikely to change this trend," he continued.
According to the Russian military expert, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' MBTs had been largely destroyed with old anti-tank systems and sub-caliber shells. Russia's most modern anti-tank weapons have not been at play in Ukraine yet, he noted.
Neither the German-made Leopard 2 nor the US M1 Abrams tanks are invincible, Leonkov continued. "This is not a 'wonder weapon' and everyone knows that. These tanks have already participated in various military conflicts with a varying degree of success. These military conflicts can be defined by the term 'colonial wars.' That is, technically developed states used these tanks in fighting against those who had problems with the modern military equipment, that is, with a weak enemy."
According to Leonkov, both Russia's T-90M and T-72B3 main battle tanks are equipped with armor-piercing sub-caliber projectiles which could pose a serious challenge to the NATO MBTs. "When these tanks arrive in Ukraine, a lot of [Russia's] anti-tank weapons, ground-based, stationary, mobile, air-based, various anti-tank systems will be waiting for them," Leonkov said. "For their part, the T-90M Proryv-3 tanks have modern guns that are capable of penetrating the frontal protection of these [NATO] tanks with armor-piercing sub-caliber projectiles (…) Do not forget that these [NATO] tanks will go without the cover from [Ukraine's] air forces and air-defense systems.
"The [announced] number of [NATO] tanks is absolutely not enough to carry out any kind of tactical or operational-practical operation. Much more tanks are required for that. However, even with an advantage in tanks, it would be difficult for them to overcome the anti-tank weapons systems possessed by Russia."
Moreover, the German-made and US-made tanks will be sent in batches and are likely to be deployed gradually on the Ukrainian battlefield, Leonid Reshetnikov, retired lieutenant general of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) noted: "The impact of the Abrams and Leopards [on the situation on the battlefield] will be stretched out over time and will not play a significant role in the next quarter, and maybe even six months. German tanks will arrive no sooner than in a month and a half or two months. The tanks will not arrive in a single package, but at intervals of several weeks. As announced, 31 American tanks Abrams will appear in Ukraine in three four or five months. Training takes an average of 7-8 weeks. Then the question arises as to when and how [Ukrainian] crews will be trained. And this will also affect the effectiveness of these tanks. All this will take time. But no one in Russia will wait until they [get prepared properly]."
Leopard 2s and M1 Abrams will have to fight in urban conditions and in the fields; amid the spring thaw, summer heat, and winter freeze; against conventional forces, militias, and special operation forces. Some of those challenges the NATO machines will face for the first time, according to observers. "We will soon see how really effective the Abrams is," Serbian military expert Milovan Bajagic said. "We will see its shortcomings while operating on Ukrainian soil; we will see how he gets stuck in the mud or snow (…) Abrams is a very heavy tank. In a bunch of pictures you can see him stuck in the mud (…) It is also vulnerable, as shown in the Gulf War and other conflicts. It is extremely vulnerable, despite powerful armor."
Russian anti-tank missile systems may be the most dangerous for German heavy armored vehicles. Modern models are designed specifically to withstand the tanks of NATO countries. The penetrating power of guided missiles with a tandem shaped charge sometimes exceeds one meter of armored steel. ATGMs of the Russian Kornet family are installed on infantry fighting vehicles, armored vehicles, and also come in a wearable version. "Kornets" managed to fight in the Middle East, where they proved to be an effective means against, for example, the American "Abrams". Ammunition 9M133M-2 with a tandem-cumulative warhead has armor penetration up to 1100-1300 millimeters behind dynamic protection. This is more than enough for any tank of the Western school. There are also older "Competitions", "Metis" and "Bassoons". If used correctly, they can hit the "Leopards" in the side.
The second most important threat are mine weapons. Even not the most modern TM-62s, the lack of which the Russian army does not experience, can be effective against Leopards. This is a pressure-action anti-tank mine, which is a flat, rounded metal box. There are eight kilograms of explosives inside, and a fuse on top. Detonation occurs when a caterpillar hits the top cover of a mine. Eight kilograms is hardly enough to destroy the Leopard. But this is quite enough to damage the chassis. Formidable equipment for some time will become absolutely helpless in front of anti-tank weapons and artillery. And quickly towing a 56-62-ton colossus to the rear is not easy enough. The large weight of the "Leopards" can lead to the fact that they can only advance along the roads. The slightest rain - and the fields of Donbass turn into an impenetrable swamp, that in addition, is mined.
However, the Russian army has an argument stronger than the TM-62. In 2020, the PTKM-1R anti-roof anti-tank mine was put into service. After being installed on the ground, it is switched to combat mode and waits for the victim, guided by the noise and vibration of the ground within a radius of up to 250 meters. When a target is detected, it leans slightly in the right direction. When the machine is in the affected area, the submunition is launched. It takes off to a height of several tens of meters, scans the area with the help of a radar and a thermal imager, aims and hits the roof of a tower or MTO with a cumulative shock core.
These mines were first actively used in the conflict zone in Ukraine . In particular, in the Kherson region. For example, according to local authorities, they thwarted an attack near the village of Davydov Brod. The surviving prisoners said that the armored vehicles came under a blow of an unclear kind. Later it became known that the enemy column ran into the PTKM-R1 minefield.
The third threat to the Western tanks is Russian tanks. Today, vehicles of different classes are fighting - from the obsolete T-6 2 and captured T-6 4 to the modernized T-72B3M , T-80BVM and T-90 A / M. The expert emphasizes that the last three are superior to Leopard-1 and are equal in level to Leopard-2. According to Stritzel, Western-style tanks have more powerful targeting systems, but are vulnerable to Russian ammunition.
“We will not butt heads with the Leopards,” says the commander of the tank crew of one of the units of the Southern Military District. “The power of our armor-piercing feathered sub-caliber projectiles (BOPS) of the Mango or Lead type may not be enough. At the same time, the Leopards -2" shoot further than our vehicles - thanks to better optics and surveillance devices. However, they make their way into the side with a bang. The 2A4 version has lighter side armor than on our T-7 2. Considering that they need to attack, and we need to defend , we will act from ambush." Russian anti-tank missiles for firing from tank guns of the 2A46 family have adequate armor penetration is enough. The ATGM flight range exceeds the firing range of a conventional projectile from a German gun. The Russian tank has the ability to fire the first shot.
However, the main enemy of the tank on the modern battlefield is not a similar vehicle, not a grenade launcher or an ATGM operator, but an attack helicopter. Unlike the HIMARS and the M-777, the Leopard is a first-line weapon. If artillery can shoot back and leave quickly, then such equipment goes on the attack in the forefront. Without an air defense "umbrella", they will become easy targets for the Russian Ka-5 2 , Mi-2 8 and Mi-3 5 armed with Shturm and Ataka anti-tank missiles.
Most likely, the weak points will be revealed during the counteroffensive announced by Kiev.
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