Grom Operational-Tactical ballistic missile (OTRK)
On 27 August 2024, Volodymyr Zelensky teased the press in Kiev by announcing that Ukraine had successfully tested its first-ever ballistic missile of its own production . However, he did not provide any details about the weapon or its capabilities. However, he thanked the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex, which "works 24/7." Hrim-2, Grom or OTRK Sapsan (Ukrainian: lit. 'peregrine falcon'), also known as Operational-Tactical Missile System [OTRK] Hrim (Ukrainian:, romanized: Operatyvno-taktychnyi raketnyi kompleks "Hrim", lit. 'thunder'),
Vasily Dandykin, a veteran Russian military analyst, missile expert and retired Navy Captain 1st rank doesn’t rule out that Zelensky’s “new” missile could actually be an upgraded Tochka-U – a Soviet tactical missile design with a 120km firing range and a highly destructive 420kg warhead. Alternatively, Dandykin said, it could be an upgraded Oka – a Soviet theater ballistic missile with a 400km range that was liquidated from Soviet stocks in the late 1980s by Mikhail Gorbachev in a gesture of goodwill toward Washington. Three of the USSR’s allies in Eastern Europe, including Bulgaria were in possession of the Oka, and Dandykin doesn’t rule out that Sofia may have transferred this missile technology to Kiev.
“Zelensky says a lot of things,” Dandykin stressed, not ruling out that the comedian-turned-politician’s new missile claims are just “propaganda.” Even if Ukraine successfully conducted a test launch, mass production would remain impossible due to the high costs and advanced technology involved, which Kiev currently lacks the production capabilities to support, Dandykin noted. In any case, Russia’s air defenses will be ready to intercept them, the analyst concludes. “We intercept the Tochka-U…Our air defenses, even as Westerners admit, are the best in the world in all areas, from short-to-long range complexes,” he pointed out.
The Grom short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) would be a Ukrainian analog to the Russian 9K720 Iskander. Grom-2 is a continuation of the Sapsan project that had been suspended earlier, which is being developed for a foreign customer - Saudi Arabia - which was reported to have covertly financed Research & Development work on Hrim-2, to the tune of about $40 million. After all the tests for export, it will obviously be taken into service by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, however, with certain modifications and under a different name - probably Sapsan.
The Soviet-era 9K79 Tochka-U SRBM system, was the mainstay of the Ukrainian army's missile systems. Grom-2 (Thunder-2) was a new tactical missile system developed for the Ukrainian armed forces. It uses a cruise missile developed on the basis of Korshun (Kite) to destroy ground targets. It was precisely because the Thunder-2 was being created for sale abroad that these missiles have a range of up to 280-300 km - such are the requirements of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Missile Technologies.
This system forms the basis for other operational missiles with a longer range. In fact, the complex was far better and advanced than its Russian counterpart, the Iskander (Nato designation SS-26 Stone). Despite little funding in 2009-2013, Pivdenne has developed fundamental solutions to improve the technical characteristics of Grom-2 (Thunder-2) targeting the export market and military-technical cooperation. Further development of the ground forces missile system will allow a unified chain of command to operate independently on the tactical level, but incorporated into a network sharing information from existing ressources as well as newly introduced sources, like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV, drones) and observation satellite data, thus authorizing strikes at various ranges from a single launcher.
Hypothetically, a customer could be either Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. For example, in 2003 representatives from UAE showed interest in Ukraine in terms of development and production of cruise missiles for the needs of the UAE air force and ballistic missiles. Even the commander of the air force and air defense UAE arrived in Kiev.
In Ukraine at the enterprise "Production Association" Southern Machine-Building Plant Makarov since the mid-90's work was underway to create its own deterrent weapon - operational and tactical missile system (OTRK) Thunder and cruise missile" Kite-2. However, due to systematic underfunding, the project "slipped". In March 2006, a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council approved a proposal to create a Ukrainian version of the deterrence force, which was to be based on OTRK "Thunder", according to Defense Express.
The terms of reference for the development of a new OTRK for the Armed Forces of Ukraine should have been ready by the end of 2006. It was even planned to amend the State Program for the Development of Arms and Military Equipment for the period up to 2009, which previously provided for the development of a missile system and funding for its creation at the Pivdenne Design Bureau, starting in 2007.
The main task of OTRK "Thunder" was to defeat single and group stationary targets at distances from 80 to 290 km. The weight of the combat unit of a single-stage ballistic missile was 480 kg. The warhead (warhead) was to be made according to a monoblock or cassette scheme. The monoblock was a high-explosive fragmentary or penetrating high-explosive fragmentation ampoule. While the cassette warhead was equipped with high-explosive fragmentation warheads. Estimated area of missile damage - 10,000 square meters. m. Its weight together with the launch container, 7.2 m long, was 3.5 t.
The onboard missile control system was to be inertial, equipped with navigation and guidance systems of various types (radar, optoelectronic). At the same time, the automated launcher was to be based on the chassis of an off-road truck and equipped with a set of systems and equipment for autonomous preparation for launch, which was carried out on a mortar basis. According to experts, the best option for the structural construction of units equipped with OTRK "Thunder" was to be a battery of 2-3 self-propelled launchers and a mobile command post.
It was assumed that OTRK "Thunder" was to replace the tactical missile system "Point-U". Experts assessed "Thunder" as a high-precision weapon of the new generation, capable of creating a reliable shield of non-nuclear deterrence for Ukraine itself, and for any state that wishes to purchase such weapons.
Given that the development of a new weapon takes about 7-10 years, the first prototype could be created three years after the start of work. The fact that the developers did not carry out research and development work "from scratch" contributed to the fastest, at first glance, the project implementation process. For several years, Pivdenne developed the Borisfen missile system, and its research and development work was frozen. However, the project ordered a long life. For reasons known to all - finances, or rather, their absence. Dnipropetrovsk residents offered their project to a foreign customer.
A preliminary design had been completed at the Pivdenne Design Bureau and the transition to the development of a model solid propellant engine and its testing was underway. Then the working design documentation of the missile will be developed, according to which it will be possible to create this complex. Now it was difficult to say when the project will be completed for a foreign customer. It all depends on the task, funding and success of all stages of development - at least four or five years.
Work on the Grom complex was first announced at a defense exhibition in Kiev in 2014. A year later, it was announced that mass production of the weapon could begin as soon as 2018.
Expected to have a firing range of 280 km (and the possibility of upgrades to up to 500 km), the system would replace the aging Soviet-era Tochka-U systems currently used by the Ukrainian military. The complex was expected to use the prospective 'Korshun' cruise missile to destroy ground targets. The system's designers asserted that the complex would be able to defeat the most advanced missile defense systems, including the Russian S-300 and S-400 systems. Like the Russian Iskander, Grom's missiles were expected to use unpredictable flight trajectories.
Questions remained as to whether the Ukrainian military-industrial complex will actually be able to build the new weapon. "The fate of the Borisfen and Sapsan missile systems, hatched earlier by Kiev, is well known. The former was scrapped due to a lack of funding in 2003. The latter was shuttered in 2013, after over 200 million hryvnia (about $24.5 million dollars at the time) was spent on it…"
The Grom design, too, actually dates back to 2003, but at that time Kiev lacked the funding to move forward. Following the February 2014 Maidan events, Kiev announced with great fanfare that projects such as Neptun (an anti-ship missile system), Olha (a ground-based missile system), and Korshun (a sea and ground-based cruise missile) would soon be realized. In the end, the Korshun, which remained untested, outwardly looks very similar to the long-range Soviet-era air-based Kh-55 cruise missile, while the Olha turned out to be just an ordinary round for a multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) used by the Soviet army.
Still, the situation surrounding the Grom system may yet be different. Firstly, it was possible that this project will combine all the developments previously reported on by Kiev, resulting in movement toward the creation of a unified high-precision missile system. Second, the key factor limiting previous developments, including the Sapsan, had been financing. But if media reports are to be believed, Grom was being financed from abroad. This radically changes the picture.
Accordingly, there were two important questions which require answers: "Is it possible that in the near future we will see Ukraine's 19th Missile Brigade, deployed in Khmelnitsky, armed with the Grom system? And who was the project's foreign sponsor?"
According to Ukrainian online news resource Apostrophe, Grom-2 was so advanced that it will change the balance of power between Ukraine and Russia, and allow the Ukrainian military to crush the fledgling breakaway republics in the war-torn Donbass region. Citing local experts, the outlet stressed that the Grom-2's range would allow its missiles to target Moscow, "and consequently, any attempt to launch full-scale aggression against Ukraine will end in us hitting targets on Russian territory."
Russian commentators reacted to the latter kinds of statements with a mix of amusement and bewilderment, pointing out, first of all, that Russia was not in a state of war with Ukraine. Secondly, they noted, Kiev was formally committed to observing the Minsk agreements on ensuring peace in eastern Ukraine. Finally, Kiev was a party to several treaties, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Missile Technology Control Regime, which ban the deployment and export of ballistic and cruise missile systems with a range above 500 km. With this in mind, given the fact that Moscow was more than 500 km from most of Ukraine's territory, experts are calling the Ukrainian media's bluff.
Russian analyst Konstantin Sivkov explained that he frankly did not believe that the Ukrainian military industrial complex was in a state to develop such a system. "I do not think that Ukraine is capable of creating any sort of new superweapon, simply for the simple reasons that even the US does not have such a weapon," the analyst noted. Sivkov stressed that "the creation of a new superweapon is extremely difficult in all respects. At the same time, Ukraine has so far failed to create anything new even in the field of armored vehicles."
Grom-2 was ostensibly meant to compete with the Russian SRBM. Ultimately, military analysts say that whatever happens next, the actual production of the Grom-2 SRBM was a long way off; testing will require time and additional financial resources, and actually creating a production line would cost vast sums of money – something Ukraine's cash-strapped budget will have a difficult time paying for. Independent Ukraine has never developed or produced such systems. That's not even mentioning Russia's countermeasures, including its air and missile defense systems.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
