Zapad-2025 (“West”) exercise
Russia and Belarus began large-scale military exercises 11 September 2025, raising alarm across NATO’s eastern flank just days after Warsaw accused Moscow of sending attack drones across Polish airspace, a major escalation that sent shivers through Europe. Such "Zapad" (or West in Russian) drills occur every two or four years and are perceived as intimidation exercises on NATO's eastern flank. at the Mulino training ground in the Nizhny Novgorod region, where the main phase of the Zapad-2025 exercises took place.
President Putin inspected the equipment and weapons display, accepted the report of the defense minister and thanked the foreign observers. It is stated that during these maneuvers, 100,000 servicemen were involved at 41 land and sea training grounds, 333 aircraft, about 250 ships and 10,000 units of equipment.
On the morning of September 10, Polish authorities reported a mass incursion of Russian drones into the country's territory — the first in three and a half years of full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine. According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, some of the drones flew into Poland through the Brest region. Warsaw declared an "act of aggression." One residential building was reported damaged. Both Polish and other NATO forces were deployed to neutralize the UAVs. That evening, the Minister of Internal Affairs and Administration of Poland Marcin Kerwinski, on the recommendation of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, signed an order to close the border with Belarus.
“More and more details are emerging about the construction of the drones used by Russia. All of this indicates that the drone launches by Russia into Polish territory, via Ukraine and Belarus, were deliberate. This is definitely not accidental,” the President of Ukraine noted 12 September 2025. Zelenskyy stated that Russia may have attacked Poland to prevent Ukraine from receiving new air defense systems before winter. He emphasized that building an Eastern air defense shield for Europe as already become an urgent task.
Moscovite Z-bloggers confirmed what many believed: Russia deliberately test nato's red lines to see how much disorder the alliance will tolerate. Anton Gerashchenko noted that Russian "Z-bloggers" openly say that there was no mistake and that Russian drones deliberately entered Poland during the attack on Ukraine: "First of all, the drones that flew into Poland were not ordinary Gerbera drones. As noted earlier, some of them were equipped with additional fuel tanks, something that has never been seen on any Ukrainian Gerbera drone. Secondly, the drones carried, albeit relatively simple, CRP antennas for protection against electronic warfare. In other words, drones specifically designed for Poland entered its territory with a very clear task: to fly as far as possible over Polish airspace. Still, it’s possible they strayed there accidentally - such things happen.
"The most important thing is that everyone witnessed NATO’s complete inability to cope even with the simplest aerial threats. ... Another important detail is that there was no retaliatory response from NATO - they limited themselves to consultations and condemnations. This means that next time, Russia could quite 'accidentally' send a dozen Geran drones on holiday to Rzeszów."
Institute for the Study of War suggested 11 Septembe 2025 "Russia is likely attempting to gauge both Poland’s and NATO’s capabilities and reactions in the hopes of applying lessons learned to future conflict scenarios with the NATO alliance."
The majority of the drones that were not shot down simply ran out of fuel, falling in fields or near villages, since their goal was clearly not to hit any objects on the territory of the country. So it is obvious that the interception of only a fifth of all the drones launched and the lack of damage from those that fell on their own is not the merit of the Polish or any other air forces that participated in the hunt for the "Gerberas".
Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces Wieslaw Kukula mentioned in the interview that army was able to precisely identify which drones carried armed payload and those were immediately taken down, most of the drones however were decoys, those flew much further in Poland.
The drones that violated Poland’s airspace could have been “disabled” and lost control, US President Donald Trump suggested 18 September 2025. Trump was asked about the affair in an interview with Fox News on Thursday. The US president refused to say whether the drone incursion was deliberate or not, suggesting the drones could have simply strayed after being subjected to electronic interference. “You know, I can’t comment on whether it was a mistake or not. They shouldn’t have been there, let’s face it. Supposedly, they were disabled. You know, they disabled drones today. The great attack on a drone is disabling it, and they fall all over the place,” Trump stated, adding that he was very “disappointed” by the incident. https://shape.nato.int/news-releases/eastern-sentry-to-enhance-natos-presence-along-its-eastern-flank NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry 12 Septembe 2025 to protect the airspace of Poland and the Baltic states following incidents with Russian UAVs. An A400M transport aircraft of the French Air Force has arrived at the Minsk-Mazowiecki airbase in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship , delivering weapons for the Rafale fighters , which are already deployed at the airbase (they were spotted the day before the UAV incident). At the moment, the operation plans to involve, in addition to the French fighters, two Eurofighter Typhoon fighters of the German Air Force, two Danish F-16 fighters and an air defense frigate (probably Iver Huitfeldt class). It is also planned to deploy additional air defense systems and anti-UAV systems in Poland. The above-mentioned forces will supplement the group of forces and assets of the alliance, previously deployed in Poland to protect the military supply system to Ukraine.
Three Russian MiG-31s ??reached the Estonian capital, Tallinn, according to Politico. According to the publication, citing sources, the Russian fighter jets flew approximately five nautical miles over Estonian territory and headed toward the capital, Tallinn. The aircraft circled for approximately 12 minutes before NATO scrambled Italian F-35s to counter the threat. "Russia has already violated Estonian airspace four times this year, which is unacceptable in itself. But today's intrusion, with three fighter jets entering our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen," the Estonian Foreign Ministry said.
In addition to Estonia, Russian fighter jets also flew over the Polish oil platform Petrobaltik in the Baltic Sea 19 Septembr 2025. According to the Polish Border Guard, two Russian fighter jets flew at low altitude over the Petrobaltik platform, violating its security zone. Interior Ministry spokesperson Karolina Galecka added that the overflight was at an altitude of approximately 150 meters. The platform is located within Poland's exclusive economic zone, approximately 70 kilometers from the coast, but is not within its maritime borders.
The probability of hybrid attacks against Lithuania during the Zapad-2025 exercises was assessed as extremely low, Mindaugas Mažonas, head of the Second Department of Operational Services of the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence, told LRT in an interview 25 August 2025. According to him, the total number of forces involved in the exercises will be up to 30 thousand soldiers. The exercises "will cover a wide range of tasks - from air defense to defensive battles, repelling violators and supporting tactical aviation," the representative of the Lithuanian department said. However, individual provocations cannot be completely ruled out, says Mažonas: “Incidents such as airspace violations are possible, as well as a small probability of cyber attacks. Such episodes are typical for almost any large-scale exercises.”
The risk of using the Zapad-2025 exercises as a cover for larger-scale actions by Russia against countries in the region or the involvement of Belarus in a new phase of the war in Ukraine remains minimal, he assured.
Such exercises have been held since 2009. The topic of the current ones is "Use of groups of troops (forces) in the interests of ensuring the military security of the Union State." Their goal is to test the extent to which Russia and Belarus are ready to ensure the military security of the Union State and are capable of repelling possible aggression. Preparations for the exercises began last fall, on 23 October 2024. Russia emphasized they are not aimed against third countries.
Moscow emphasizes that Zapad-2025 is a planned exercise and that it is not aimed at third countries. "We are talking about continuing military cooperation and practicing interaction between two strategic allies," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on September 11.
Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are on hold, the Kremlin announced 12 September 2025, accusing European countries of obstructing negotiations, while United States President Donald Trump warns he may be running out of patience with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The comments came as Moscow says it remains open to dialogue, while it escalates its bombardment of Ukrainian cities and fierce fighting rages in Donetsk in the east.
The Zapad 2025 manoeuvres, which ran from 12 September until 16 September, tookg place as Russian forces continue their slow advance in Ukraine and intensify air attacks on Ukrainian cities. The Kremlin insists the drills were planned well before the drone incident. “The objectives of the drills are to improve the skills of commanders and staffs, the level of cooperation and field training of regional and coalition groupings of troops,” Russia’s Ministry of Defence said.
Zapad exercises are normally held every four years. The last, in 2021, mobilised some 200,000 Russian soldiers shortly before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This year’s version was expected to be smaller, as much of Russia’s military remains committed to the battlefield. The exercises will include practicing the planning of nuclear weapon use and involve around 7,000-8,000 troops, significantly smaller than previous iterations. NATO and neighboring countries closely monitored the drills, citing concerns over transparency and potential provocations. Belarus initially announced 13,000 soldiers would join, later halving that figure. According to Lithuanian military intelligence, up to 30 thousand military personnel will take part in the maneuvers.
As part of the exercises, the military of the two countries will practice joint actions to ensure military security and maintain peace. Practical exercises will be held at training grounds in Belarus and Russia, as well as in the waters of the Baltic and Barents Seas. The details of the exercises in August were given to journalists by the assistant to the Belarusian Minister of Defense, the head of the department of international military cooperation of the military department of the republic Valery Revenko. According to him , the military will practice the following tasks:
- repelling enemy air strikes;
- defensive battle, defeat of the enemy who has penetrated the defense and creation of conditions for the restoration of the territorial integrity of the country;
- air support for troops;
- fight against illegal armed groups and saboteurs.
At the first stage of the exercises “issues of command and control of formations and military units in repelling aggression against the Union State, organizing interaction and all types of support in the interests of fulfilling their intended tasks will be worked out" the Belarusian Defense Ministry stated. “The main content” of the second stage will be “the management of troops and forces in restoring the territorial integrity of the Union State, defeating the enemy, including with the participation of a coalition group of troops (forces) of friendly states,” the report said. Minsk claims that these exercises will be “maximum open and transparent.” To this end, in accordance with the OSCE Vienna Document , which regulates the exchange of military information and data on exercises, the republic has invited “all without exception” participants of the Vienna Document, which is 56 OSCE countries (excluding Russia, which is participating in the exercises), to observe “Zapad-2025.”
In addition, in early September, Belarus hosted military exercises of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. CSTO parliamentarians will take part in exercises such as Vzaimodeistvie-2025, with the Collective Rapid Reaction Forces, Poisk-2025, with reconnaissance units, and Echelon-2025, with logistical support forces. The active phase of the joint military exercises Vzaimodeistvie-2025 with the CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction Forces took place at the Losvido training ground (Vitebsk region, Belarus). Gennady Lepeshko, Chairman of the CSTO PA Council's Coordination Meeting of Chairpersons of Committees (Commissions) on Defence and Security of the Parliaments of the CSTO Member States, participated as an observer. Lepeshko said Vzaimodeistvie-2025 confirmed the high level of combat readiness of the CSTO.
Western countries repeatedly expressed concern about the exercises. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, commenting on Zapad 2025 in June 2025, said the alliance was “monitoring Russia’s military activities, including the exercises, very closely,” and accused Moscow of a lack of transparency. “The level of training and scale of previous Zapad exercises significantly exceeded what Russia had announced,” he told reporters at the time.
Polish officials believe the drills may simulate an attack on the Suwalki corridor – the narrow stretch of NATO territory linking Poland and Lithuania between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. The corridor is considered a vulnerability for NATO and could potentially be the first target of any Russian attack. Military planners see the corridor as one of the alliance’s most vulnerable points.
NATO's eastern flank members that border Belarus – Poland, Lithuania and Latvia – were on high alert over the drills, which Belarus says will be held near Borisov, a town east of the capital Minsk. All three countries have ramped up security ahead of the exercises, with Poland ordering the complete closure of its border with Belarus for their duration.
"We have proven to everyone that we are not going to attack you there and that we will conduct the exercises in the center, deep in Belarus. So that you do not have a reason to continue to reproach us for being aggressors, for planning to attack at least the countries of the Eastern European Union - Poland, the Baltic countries, and especially Ukraine," Lukashenko said in an interview with Time magazine in August. General Muraveiko called for not assessing this decision as "weakness, or loyalty, or a response to some claims." "This is exclusively one of the steps to stabilize the situation, to calm the international community," he assured in July.
On September 9, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that the country would close its border with Belarus on the night of September 12 in connection with Zapad-2025. He called the Russian-Belarusian exercises "very aggressive." "The safety of the Poles is our priority. We will open the checkpoints when we are convinced that the situation does not pose a threat to us," the Polish Ministry of Internal Affairs reported on September 10.
At the same time, the Iron Defender-2025 military exercises began in Poland on September 1. They have become the largest in the country's history - according to the republic's Ministry of Defense, more than 30 thousand soldiers from several NATO countries, including the United States, Great Britain and Germany, are participating in them, equipped with approximately 600 units of military equipment.
"The main goal is not only to strengthen the defense capabilities of Poland and NATO, but also to demonstrate readiness for collective defense and deterrence of any potential enemy in the context of modern geopolitical challenges," the Polish Defense Ministry emphasized, noting that the maneuvers are not aimed against any state. At the same time, the Minister of Defense of the Republic Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh made it clear that Iron Defender is a response to the Russian-Belarusian exercises. "At the same time, the Russian side is conducting exercises in Belarus, so it is necessary to clearly demonstrate the power of the alliance and the capabilities of the Polish army," he told journalists on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague in July 2025 (quoted by Belsat ).
About 40 thousand Polish military personnel were deployed on the border of Poland with Belarus and Russia. According to Polish media, this was announced on September 11 by Deputy Minister of National Defense Cezary Tomczyk, linking the decision with the Belarusian-Russian exercises “West-2025” starting on September 12. "Let's remember that the Zapad exercises are offensive. They started the war in Ukraine, as well as the aggression against Georgia. That's why the Polish military prepared for them. In the coming days, there will be about 40,000 of our servicemen on the border," the deputy minister said.
Minsk called the NATO exercises another step by Warsaw "towards escalating the situation in the region." In these conditions, Muraveyko said, Belarus reserves the right to move its individual units to the Grodno and Belovezhskaya Pushcha areas in the western part of the country during the exercises.
Belarussian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said: “the leadership of NATO countries is trying to use Zapad-2025 as a pretext for conducting their exercises.” "The most alarming thing is the decision of the Polish military leadership to create a group of more than 30-34 thousand servicemen. This is already a serious group, in our opinion. We must watch very carefully (and this is what we will do) and react. If they show any aggression towards the Republic of Belarus, we have something to respond with," the press service of the Ministry of Defense quotes Khrenin as saying.
Modern combat operations (not only in Ukraine) have repeatedly demonstrated that the Airborne Forces can be effectively used exclusively in the format of sudden tactical helicopter landings in the enemy's near rear with the aim of rapidly capturing key objects and holding them until the main forces arrive. And not a mass parachute landing of people and equipment from orderly rows of Il-76s flying high to the slaughter.
Of course, at the current positional stage of the Air Defense Forces with a fully formed front line, even helicopter operations are mortally dangerous. However, the first days with the landing of troops by landing with the support of attack helicopters in Gostomel and the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station showed that such tactics are still effective and can produce results.
U.S. military personnel made an unexpected visit to Belarus 15 September 2025 to observe the "Zapad-2025" military exercises. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin told them they could look at "everything that interests them," noting in particular that the presence of American officers is a sign of a "thaw." In addition to the US military attaché, representatives of two other NATO countries, Turkey and Hungary , observed the joint Russian-Belarusian maneuvers.
A review by British intelligence stated that compared to Russia’s previous military exercises, Zapad-2025 likely involved “fewer ground forces and armored vehicles due to Russia’s significant involvement in the illegal invasion of Ukraine.” “Putin’s claim that more than 100,000 servicemen took part in the exercises is likely not consistent with the actual scale of the drills,” the review says.
According to British intelligence estimates, no more than 10,000 Russian ground troops were involved in Zapad-2025 on Russian territory, while in Belarus around 6,000 Belarusian and Russian servicemen took part. Earlier, Estonian intelligence reported on the difficulties faced by Russian troops during the Zapad exercises. It should be recalled that the joint Russian-Belarusian drills caused concern in countries bordering Russia. In particular, Poland completely closed its border with Belarus on the evening of September 11, a decision that had been made even before the incident with falling Russian drones. In addition, Poland and Latvia restricted flights over parts of their territories near the Belarusian border.
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