Military Doctrine - SVO Lessons
The Drone Revolution
Baluevsky and Pukhov writing under the tile " Digital war – a new reality" analyzed the transformation of modern warfare through drone technology and digital systems, drawing heavily on observations from the Ukraine conflict. Baluevsky and Pukhov argue that traditional weapons like tanks and artillery are in crisis, advocate for radical military reorganization, and warn that Russia must urgently address gaps in computing power to remain strategically competitive.
They argue that warfare is undergoing revolutionary transformation through what they call the "drone revolution" or "digital war." They contend that miniaturization, cost reduction of components, and network solutions are leading to swarms of diverse drones dominating battlefields. The authors emphasize that tactical battlefields and rear areas extending dozens of kilometers will become "zones of total extermination," with the primary task being counter-drone operations. Armed struggle, they assert, will primarily become a fight for "drone superiority" in the air.
The authors identify battlefield transparency as a critical consequence of this revolution. Baluevsky and Pukhov claim that drones, space-based systems, and networked information solutions have essentially eliminated the "fog of war," erasing boundaries between tactical, operational, and strategic levels of combat. They highlight how Starlink satellite internet has revolutionized battlefield communications in Ukraine, providing accessible, fast, and secure information exchange that enables unlimited-range control of even small drones.
Baluevsky and Pukhov declare a crisis for conventional weapons systems. They argue that tanks have lost their value as the primary means of breakthrough and maneuver because they are now easily detected and destroyed platforms designed for direct-fire combat in an era where indirect fire from concealed positions dominates. The authors also question artillery's future, suggesting that expensive gun systems firing costly unguided munitions are inefficient when drones and precision weapons can achieve the same effects on transparent battlefields.
Drawing on the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, the authors describe emerging tactical adaptations: extreme dispersion of forces with very low density of combat formations; increased use of ground robotic systems and heavy FPV drones; transition to small groups of 2-4 personnel; minimization of firefights and frontal assaults; and "creeping" infiltration tactics with small groups penetrating deep into enemy rear areas. Baluevsky and Pukhov note that by early 2025, drones accounted for over 70% of Russian combat casualties, with monthly FPV drone procurement reaching hundreds of thousands of units per side.
The authors propose radical military reorganization. They envision future armies as integrated multifunctional forces rather than rigidly divided branches. Baluevsky and Pukhov suggest that infantry fighting vehicles weighing 30-40 tons (like the M2 Bradley, which they call the "ideal machine" of the Ukraine war) should replace tanks as the core of ground forces. They recommend heavy engineer-assault demining vehicles with maximum protection instead of tanks for infantry units, and stress that future militaries must be unified forces capable of operating in any modern warfare conditions.
In their most strategic assessment, Baluevsky and Pukhov warn that future military power will depend on computing capabilities rather than territorial or resource control. They argue that development of computational power, sensor networks, data processing, and AI will enable global reconnaissance-strike and defensive automated systems with tremendous effectiveness. The authors caution that such systems could eventually render nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence obsolete by making missile defense highly effective.
Critically, Baluevsky and Pukhov express concern that Russia will lag behind world leaders in computing power development due to insufficient competencies, industrial capabilities, and domestic market capacity. They urge immediate attention to this challenge, warning that growing technological gaps threaten Russian strategic interests and calling for political disagreements to be set aside to focus urgently on administrative and technological solutions.
Baluevsky and Pukhov conclude that the Ukraine campaign marks the end of nearly a century of mechanized warfare concepts and represents the first full-scale 21st-century armed conflict. They characterize the Special Military Operation as marking a completed revolution in military affairs—the transition to "digital war"—and predict that all emerging trends will develop further in the coming decade, continuing to transform the nature of warfare.
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