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  • Upcoming Elections in India

    Manipur

    There has been violence in Manipur since its incorporation into the Indian state. It is a complicated, complex region. The Meiteis are in the minority in the hills, while the tribals are in the minority in the plains and cities. The underlying anger, simmering for a long time, is linked not just to the government’s clampdown on reserved and protected forests in the State’s hill areas but also to the Kukis’ feeling of being persecuted. Many acres of land in the hills are being used for poppy cultivation. The government sees its crackdown on forest areas as part of a bigger war against drugs, but it is also guilty of using “drug lords” as a blanket term against all Kuki people. Meitei, who live in the valleys, are angry because they are not allowed to settle or buy land in the hill areas, while tribal people can buy land in the valleys.

    Violence began on 03 May 2023, after the All Tribal Students Union Manipur (ATSUM) held a solidarity march in all districts opposing the recent Manipur High Court order, which had asked the Manipur State government to send a recommendation to the Centre regarding the demand to include the Meitei community in the Scheduled Tribes (STs) list. At least 54 people have reportedly been killed and some 23,000 people displaced, most of them sheltering in army camps, in ethnic violence in India’s northeastern state of Manipur, according to military officials. On 07 May 2023, the army said it had “significantly enhanced” its surveillance in violence-affected areas, including the Imphal Valley, through aerial means such as drones and the deployment of military helicopters. The unrest in Manipur state erupted after a protest march organised by the Kuki tribal group sparked clashes with the Meitei non-tribal group, resulting in widespread damage to vehicles and properties. Authorities issued “shoot-at-sight” orders and called military reinforcement to quell the violence that opened a new faultline in the state with a checkered history of ethnic violence.

    Violence erupted in the Kuki-dominated Churachandpur district of the state, where members of the Kuki tribe were protesting against the Meitei community’s demands to be designated as a “Scheduled Tribe”. The tribes believe granting “Scheduled Tribe” status to the Meiteis would be an infringement of their rights as they claim to be the marginalised part of the population, and not the Meiteis.

    Reports of violence, arson, and mayhem emerged from various districts in Manipur, including Churachandpur, Imphal East, Imphal West, Bishnupur, Tengnoupal, and Kangpokpi. In a move that was seen as being distinctly over the top, district magistrates were authorised by the Manipur government to issue shoot-at-sight orders. Convoys of trucks belonging to the Army, the Assam Rifles, the Rapid Action Force, and local police personnel have moved into the State and entered several affected areas. Mobile data and broadband connections were suspended.

    On 11 March 2023, the State government retaliated by withdrawing from the ongoing tripartite talks. It withdrew the Suspension of Operation (SoO) agreement with two armed political groups, the Kuki National Army and the Zomi Revolutionary Army, accusing them of inciting protesters during the rallies. The SoO agreement is a ceasefire agreement that the Central and State government signed with the two conglomerates of tribal armed outfits in the hills, the United People’s Front and the Kuki National Organisation, in 2008. The Kuki National Army and the Zomi Revolutionary Army are both part of the Kuki National Organisation. These are all armed organisations.

    Of the five States that went to the polls in early 2022, the BJP won four - Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Goa - while the Aam Aadmi Party swept Punjab. In Manipur, Goa and Uttarakhand, where its main rival was the Congress, the BJP won enough seats to form the government. In Manipur, where the BJP allied with the Naga People's Front, it won one seat above the absolute majority mark.

    In 2007 the Congress Party gained control of the Manipur Assembly, winning 30 out 60 seats, and partnering with the Communist Party of India (CPI) to form an absolute majority. Local parties, including the Manipur People's Party, lost due to their extreme political stances that did not resonate with voters. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), a party that previously didn't have a foothold in Manipur, won enough seats for national recognition under the leadership of former Chief Minister W. Nipamacha Singh. While the result was a victory for Congress, it is unlikely to resolve the pressing social and economic issues that make Manipur one of India's most backward states.

    Manipur Legislative Assembly election results indicated that the incumbent Congress was one seat short of majority, but remained the single largest party in the Manipur Assembly, winning 30 of the 60 seats. Congress ally Communist Party of India (CPI) won 4 seats, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 5, Manipur People's Party (MPP) 5, Nationalist People's Party (NPP) 3, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) 3 and Independents 10. The Independents included six candidates backed by the United Naga Council (UNC), the apex body of Nagas which had made the issue of integration of Naga-inhabited areas of Manipur with Nagaland its primary political platform.

    The BJP, which had won three seats in 2002, did not win any seats. The RJD for the first time gained a foothold in the state, led by W. Nipamacha Singh, a former Chief Minister and prominent political heavyweight. His campaign consisted primarily of tirades against the corruption of the Congress government and its inability to declare a clear stand on the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA).

    The election results indicated that most voters prefer a ruling government with a relatively moderate approach on key issues such as Naga integration and the AFSPA. The Congress position that fragmentation of Manipur was not possible and UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi's emphasizing that the Center was seriously looking into the recommendations of the Jeevan Reddy Committee on AFSPA -- struck a chord with voters.

    The regional MPP campaigned with a rabid anti-national and anti-Naga tone and ended up adding only 3 to its previous tally of 2 seats. In addition, the anti-Manipuri and pro-Naga integration stance of the UNC only resonated in districts dominated by ethnic Nagas. Congress's superior statewide organizational network and resources as compared to other smaller parties was also significant factor in its victory.

    The reality for most of Manipur's citizens, who live in a one of India's most economically backward states, was that the Congress is the only party with real access to the Central government, which provides the funds to keep the state running. However, it was unlikely that the new government will address the problems of violence and corruption that plague the state. The BJP’s vote share in Manipur increased from two percent in 2012, to 36 percent in 2017. The Congress’s vote share was 35 percent.

    Shri Nongthombam Biren Singh began his career as a footballer, got recruited to the Border Security Force (BSF) and played for its team in domestic competitions. He resigned from the BSF and turned to journalism. He began a vernacular daily Naharolgi Thoudang in 1992 and worked as its editor till 2001. Turning to politics in 2002, Shri Singh joined the Democratic Revolutionary Peoples Party and won assembly election from Heingang Assembly Constituency. He retained the seat in 2007. He continued to serve the state in the capacity of a Cabinet Minister till February 2012.

    In October 2016, Shri Singh resigned from the Manipur Legislative Assembly and the Manipur Pradesh Congress Committee, this came after revolt against the then Chief Minister of Manipur, Okram Ibobi Singh. N. Biren Singh formally joined the BJP on 17 October, 2016 and later became the Spokesperson of Party and Co-convener of the Election Management Committee of BJP Manipur Pradesh.

    In 2017, he was named the 12th Chief Minister of Manipur. He won the floor test in the floor of the Assembly with the support of 33 MLAs of BJP and its allies. Though the Congress emerged the single largest party with 28 seats in the 60-member house, the BJP with 21 seats got the support of 4 MLAs each from the Naga People’s Front and the National Peoples Party and one from the Lok Janshakti Party. The BJP also managed to get the support of a few other MLAs, including one from the Congress.He is the first ever BJP Chief Minister in Manipur.

    He was committed to transparent, corruption free governance and equitable development of all areas of the State and sections of the Society. Now that Manipur had a BJP-led state government for the first time following decades of Congress rule, expectations were high.

    The Naga People’s Front [NPF] MLAs had four lawmakers in the 60-member Assembly, where the BJP has only 21 and was dependent on other allies for its majority. The BJP-led Manipur government appeared shaky as the Naga People's Front announced on 18 February 2018 that it was likely to withdraw support to it after the Nagaland elections on 27 February 2018.



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