Bihar
Bihar, often a bastion of caste-driven voting patterns, showed signs of issue-based voting by 2025. For many voter in the 2025 election season in Bihar, the state in Eastern India which was second largest state by population, was not about politics but survival. On 06 November 2025, almost 79 million voters cast their ballots in the first phase of Legislative Assembly elections. According to the Election Commission of India, the first phase saw the highest ever voter turnout of 64.66% in the history of Bihar.
The state, one of India’s poorest and most densely populated with a total population of 130 million, had long been a paradox: politically vibrant but economically fragile, rich in rhetoric but poor in opportunity. Bihar sends 40 lawmakers to India’s lower house of parliament, making it critical for any ruling coalition in New Delhi. In 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was contesting 101 of the state’s 243 assembly seats in alliance with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). Facing them was a united opposition led by the Indian National Congress and regional socialist groups under the banner of the Mahagathbandhan, or Grand Alliance.
For the first time since Modi’s rise to national power in 2014, the BJP’s dominance in Bihar appears uncertain. The air was thick with discontent over unemployment, migration, and the government’s controversial voter list revision – officially a “special intensive revision,” but described by opposition parties as a selective purge that has excluded millions of eligible voters. “It’s not just a political contest,” said Pushpendra Kumar, a former professor at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences in Patna. “It’s a test of the idea that elections in India are still a fair expression of popular will.”
Nearly 1.4 million people were casting their ballots for the first time this election. Many of them have grown up under Modi’s decade-long rule – a period of economic expansion nationally, but one that has done little to reverse Bihar’s chronic outmigration. The state’s political map remained complex. Despite fatigue and infighting, the BJP-led alliance retains an edge thanks to Nitish Kumar’s regional network and the lack of a strong alternative.
But new players are stirring the waters. The Jan Suraaj Party, led by former Modi strategist Prashant Kishor, has positioned itself as a reformist force focused on governance and accountability. Its national president, Uday Singh, believes this election could reshape Bihar’s politics. “Joblessness, migration, and debt are Bihar’s real issues,” Singh said in an interview. “People are tired of the slogans. They want a new kind of politics that deals with everyday problems. Polarization doesn’t work here anymore. Even Modi’s charisma has limits now.”
The BJP’s allies faced pressure from within; dissenting leaders protested outside the chief minister’s residence over ticket allocations. On the other side, the opposition Congress party and its allies sense an opening, particularly after the campaign of one of its key leaders, Rahul Gandhi, spotlighted the alleged voter list exclusions. “The BJP is not unbeatable here,” said Pushpendra Kumar. “If the opposition stays united and focuses on everyday issues – jobs, prices, corruption – the ruling alliance will feel the heat.”
At the same time, the entry of film star and controversial figure Pawan Singh, fielded by the BJP’s allies, has drawn criticism for his history of misogynistic remarks. “It was a mistake,” said Dr. Vidarthi Vikas, an economist at the A.N. Sinha Institute of Social Studies. “There’s already discontent among women voters. Bringing in someone like him will alienate them further.” Pawan has now announced he would not contest the elections.
Women had emerged as Bihar’s most decisive voters. In the 2024 general elections, more women voted in Bihar than men, largely because of migration. Many of them are beneficiaries of cash transfers under schemes launched by Nitish Kumar’s government – such as the recent Rs 10,000 ($113) payment to 2.1 million women – but these gestures have created as much anger as gratitude. That changing gender dynamic could redefine Bihar’s political playbook. With men absent and women asserting themselves as decision-makers, politicians are being forced to rethink how they approach rural voters.
Most analysts predicted a close contest rather than a dramatic upheaval. A C-Voter opinion poll puts the BJP-led alliance slightly ahead at 40%, with the opposition close behind at 38.3% – a statistical dead heat in a state famous for springing surprises. For the BJP, the stakes went far beyond Bihar’s borders. The outcome would set the tone for a series of crucial assembly elections in 2026 and 2027, including in West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, and Uttar Pradesh. A strong performance could reaffirm Modi’s hold on India’s political map; a setback could embolden the opposition and hint at an undercurrent of fatigue among voters nationwide.
Bihar was one of the country’s poorest states and lags on most development indicators, but its massive population makes it politically significant. With some 104 million people -- the entire population of Egypt -- it accounts for 40 seats in the 545-member lower house of federal parliament giving it outsize national influence. The state was ruled JD(U)-BJP coalition and the election would be the first political test of how voters view PM Modi's handling of the pandemic and the economic crisis and joblessness it has spawned.
Bihar state assembly elections began 28 October 2020 and ran into November 2020. The counting of votes would happen on November 10. The Election Commission was likely to announce the poll schedule in the last week of August, soon after the flood season was over. Filing of nominations, scrutiny and withdrawal of names would take place in September while voting, in multiple phases, began from the last week of October. The EC had to keep festivals like Dussehra, Diwali and Chhath in mind before finalising the dates for multiple phases of polling.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) and its allies, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), are aiming to retain power in the state. The ruling coalition was challenged by the ‘Grand Alliance’, of the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ comprising Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress and other smaller parties. The election was the first test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party since the Covid-19 pandemic struck.
A strict nationwide lockdown resulted in the country’s worst economic downturn in decades and both unemployment and virus infections have soared. India trails only the US as the nation with the most highest case tally.
The Assembly election in Bihar was significant because the poll outcome would decide whether Nitish Kumar would become Chief Minister again (for the fourth time in a row). Or possibly the RJD, which emerged as the single largest party during the 2015 Assembly polls, would stop the NDA in its tracks through Grand Alliance, also called Mahagatbandhan.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhisaid 28 October 2020 there was anger among small shopkeepers, youths, farmers and labourers against Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the national level and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in Bihar. Addressing his second poll rally of the day at Kusheswar Asthan in Darbhanga, the former Congress president also said it was sad that Prime Minister Modis effigy was burnt in Punjab on the occasion of Dusshera. "You didnt get to see it perhaps because Nitishji and Modiji control the media," he alleged.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi slammed the Opposition and even went ahead to term the Mahagathbandan's chief ministerial candidate, Tejashwi Yadav, as "Yuvraaj of Jungleraj" (Prince of Jungleraj) - the era of former chief minister and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) founder Lalu Prasad Yadav's rule in the state was often referred to as 'Junglreraj' by its opponents. "I want to know from the people of Patna, I want to know from the people of Bihar, could Bihar dream of becoming an IT-hub in Jungle Raj? Whether 'Yuvraj of Jungle Raj', he can take Bihar forward in the field of IT, or in any area of modernity," PM Modi said at the rally held in Patna.
The electoral dynamics in Bihar changed midway in 2017 after Nitish, who won the 2015 Assembly elections in alliance with the RJD and the Congress, dumped the Mahagatbandhan (in July 2017) and joined hands with the same BJP which he had decisively defeated in a prestigious battle with Narendra Modi.
Though the Opposition cried foul and charged Nitish with hijacking the mandate, much water has flown down the Ganga since 2015. The clean sweep by NDA during 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when it won 39 out of 40 parliamentary constituencies in Bihar, provided the clearest evidence that Nitish-Modi combination was a sure shot recipe for success in this part of the cow-belt.
The Nitish-led NDA regime in Bihar was in an advantageous position as the JD (U), BJP and the LJP present as a cohesive unit. Together, they command more than 40 per cent of the votes. On the other hand, Grand Alliance was neither ‘Grand’ nor there was much proper alliance between its constituents – RJD, Congress, Upendra Kushwaha-led RLSP (Rashtriya Lok Samata Party), Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM (Hindustan Awam Morcha) and VIP (Vikasheeel Insaan Party) headed by Mukesh Sahni, who belongs to the numerically-strong Mallah (boatmen) community.
The master strategist of the Mahagatbandhan in 2015, Lalu Prasad, was cooling his heels in Ranchi, serving a jail sentence in the fodder scam. This compounded the problem for the faction-ridden Mahagatbandhan. But then, if Lalu was enlarged on bail (he had already been granted bail in all cases except one), the entire poll dynamics could eventually change.
Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar was on 06 October 2019 re-elected as Janata Dal (United) president unopposed for a fresh term of three years. Nitish was nominated the JD(U) president for the first time on October 04, 2016. His election was ratified at the party’s national council meet at Rajgir (Bihar) on October 16, 2016.
Several NDA leaders including Bihar deputy CM and senior BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi, congratulated Nitish on being elected unopposed as JD(U) chief for the second consecutive term. “Nitish Kumar’s unopposed re-election on the top post of JD(U) would strengthen the NDA. Nitish has given a new height to the politics of ‘development with justice’,” Sushil Modi said in a statement. State’s water resources department (WRD) minister Sanjay Jha also congratulated Nitish on his re-election. “Under the able leadership of Nitish Ji, the JDU would form the next government in Bihar in 2020 and once again he would become the CM. Nitish Kumar Ji was a visionary leader. He was one of the best political figures in the country”.
Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar was elected as president of Janata Dal (United) on 10 April 2016 for the first time. Kumar’s elevation to the post was critical for the ruling party in Bihar as it attempts to increase its political presence in other states. With Kumar taking the top post, the 10-year tenure of former JD (U) chief and veteran Sharad Yadav comes to an end. Yadav, who had announced earlier that he would not seek another term, resigned as president. The decision to elect Kumar was taken at the party’s national executive meeting in the national capital.
Interestingly, the 65-year-old Kumar was JD (U)’s first chief from Bihar. Previous presidents Yadav and George Fernandes did not originally belong to the state. Kumar had stepped down as chief minister of the state after 2014 Lok Sabha election, but soon took over the reins again from former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi.
In 2015, the JD (U) in a successful coalition with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress party won the Bihar assembly elections, with Kumar becoming the chief minister of the state.
It was under Yadav’s tenure that the JD (U) broke away from the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Yadav was a founding member of the JD (U) and had been the president of the party since 2006 when he took over from George Fernandes and was re-elected in 2009 and 2013.
The topmost priority of the government had been to establish the rule of law by improving the law and order. Without bias and prejudice and by following the legal provisions and procedures have controlled crime and made the criminals ineffective, the impact of which can be seen in all spheres. Organised crime has also been stringently brought under control. In co-ordination with the courts, speedy trial system was introduced and many criminals have been convicted by the court. In keeping with the ratio of the population, attention was paid to the appointments in police and equipping it with essential resources and also its modernisation. Wherever the anti social elements tried to create conflict or communal tension, the government controlled the situation by immediately entering into dialogue with the people and taking their cooperation along with administrative intervention.
Conventional policy matters, high density of population, backwardness in infrastructure, lack of investment and minerals and the state being landlocked were obstacles in industrialisation. Over 89 percent of state's total population resides in villages and 76 percent of the population was dependent on agriculture for its livelihood.
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