the power of a ruling monarch is unchallenged while he is alive, but dies absolutely with him.Karen Elliott House
The 2015 Succession
A royal decree of 30 April 2015 removed Crown Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz bin Saud as next in line to the throne and replaced him with Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, 55, who headed a crackdown on al-Qaeda in the country a decade earlier. "We have decided to respond to his highness and what he had expressed about his desire to be relieved from the position of crown prince," said a statement from the royal court, carried by the official Saudi Press Agency.
The decree named "Prince Mohammed bin Nayef as crown prince" as well as deputy prime minister and said he would continue in his position of interior minister and head of the political and security council, a coordinating body.
A separate decree said King Salman's son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who was in his early 30s, will be deputy crown prince. He retains his position of defence minister. The new deputy crown prince has played a key role in the Saudi-led coalition's aerial campaign in Yemen to try and stop the advance of Houthi fighters, backed by Iran.
Prince Talal bin Abdulaziz Al Saud strongly criticized the reshuffle announced by King Salman, arguing that the measure runs contrary to the principles of the oil-rich kingdom. In a statement on 01 May 2015, the 84-year-old Saudi prince termed the decision as "impulsive," demanding a meeting to exchange viewpoints over the issue. "I call for a general meeting that includes the sons of Abdulaziz (the founder of the Saudi kingdom) along with some of his grandsons, who are provided by the Allegiance Council," he said. "I previously said… No obedience… No allegiance to those who broke the laws," the Saudi prince stated.
Prince al-Waleed, son of Prince Talal, is considered by many Saudis to be inferior to other members of the royal family because his mother was non-tribal and of Lebanese descent. Additionally, it is rumored that the Saudi elite does not favor Prince al-Waleed because they find his "arrogance," as exemplified by his business dealings as owner of Kingdom Holdings, incompatible with the diplomatic skills needed to rule the Kingdom.
This marked the first time in the kingdom's history where a grandson of the founding king Abdulaziz al-Saud, ascended to the role of crown prince, and the changes represented a generational shift in power at the top. Khalil Jahshan, the executive director for the Arab Centre of Washington from Fairfax, Virginia, said that the reshuffle constitutes a "political earthquake of the greatest magnitude". Jahshan told Al Jazeera, adding: "These are serious changes that will have repercussions not only domestically but also internationally.... This is a very decisive answer by King Salman to the doubts that many experts have expressed since he came into power with regards to his health, his decisiveness and his control over political matters in the kingdom. And this is his unequivocal answer."
Saudi Arabia shook up its leadership — ensuring a clear line of succession with younger, more aggressive men hoping to expand the kingdom's regional power. The new Saudi leadership as it began to rise to the throne and make policy was more robust, vocal and full of action. The Saudis had typically conducted their foreign and security policy in a very quiet way, with back channels. This new, younger leadership was more forthcoming.
Theodore Karasik, Gulf-based analyst of regional geopolitical affairs said “Riyadh will be hitting harder and faster, working with allies and making trouble for its enemies. The point is that the new generation of Saudi leaders are more assertive and willing to voice their opinions, not just through voice but through action.” "There will be immediate consequences to such changes, the main one being that we will likely see a change in foreign policy that has more room for cooperative and coherent policies where in the past, there was a vast sharing of power on a large scale between the sons of the founding king," Mansour al-Marzouqi, a Saudi political researcher said. "Now, it is likely going to be between the two Mohammeds [bin Nayef and bin Salman]."
With falling oil prices, a controversial military intervention in Yemen, and the devastating hajj tragedy last month, experts say many of Riyadh’s mounting troubles can be blamed on its aging king, and a power struggle brewing within the House of Saud.
While King Salmon assumed the Saudi throne in early 2015, within only nine months ago questions were raised about the 79-year-old’s health. Preparing for the worst, two Saudi princes are already vying for the Kingdom’s highest position. The fact that both of these princes already held established positions in the government meant that the infighting was causing ripples through Saudi policy.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef is the king’s 56-year-old nephew, a Saudi interior minister, and next in line for the throne. Thirty-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the king’s son, but also the head of the Saudi Defense Ministry.
The younger Salman had been acting as if he was the heir apparent, so this obviously created tensions. The king’s son also had to ensure that he becomes indispensable, in the event that Nayef becomes king. The removal of Deputy Crown Prince Moqren had shown that the position is far from secure, and, without his father’s protection, bin Salman could see a similar fate.
The internal power struggle in Saudi Arabia intensified in early 2016 with several high-profile individuals furious about the Kingdom’s military involvement in Yemen and a potential ground operation in Syria. The bullying of Mohammad bin Salman [the deputy crown prince of Saudi Arabia and the Saudi minister of defense] were beginning to irritate many other members of Saudi royal family. Some in the Saudi government believed that Mohammad bin Salman's reckless actions might bring the Kingdom to chaos.
If something happened to King Salman bin Abdulaziz [he is said to be struggling with his poor health], there will be many princes ready to claim the throne. In particular, Mutaib bin Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, the current minister of the Saudi National Guard, which doesn't take orders from the Ministry of Defense, might be willing to "calm down" Prince Salman's ambitions. The chief of the National Guard could make an alliance with Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, First Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Interior, and together organize a coup, easily subduing the regular Saudi Armed Forces.
By early 2016 Saudi Arabia's deputy prime minister Mohamed Bin Nayef, was said to be jockeying for power over Lebanon with the kingdom's new minister of defence, Muhammad Bin Salman.
Karen Elliott House, a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, wrote "After more than two decades of domestic drift under geriatric rulers and overdependence on US protection in a dangerous region, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is starting to stand up to shape its own future… By far the greatest change in Saudi Arabia is within the ruling family, and in this absolute monarchy, that dictates everything else. The Al Saud family, rulers of Arabia for most of the past three centuries, finally has passed power to a new generation of princes,"
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