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Succession - 2012 Snapshot

As of mid-2012 there were only five likely "eligible" candidates among the remaining sons of Abdulaziz: Riyadh Governor Prince Salman (b. 1935); Royal Adviser Prince Abdulilah (b. 1938); Riyadh Vice Governor Prince Sattam (b. 1942); Vice Minister of Interior Prince Ahmed (b. 1942); and GIP Director Prince Muqrin (b. 1945). Salman was the most logical next candidate, and indeed, was selected as King in 2015. As he was Nayif's full brother, the rest of the family might have balked at the prospect of two successive Sudayri kings if Nayif wound up as king, which he did not.

While Abdulilah was next by virtue of seniority, his ill-starred government career (he was twice removed from governorships) left questions about his competency. Sattam was a dark-horse candidate who had only just begun to raise his profile during the year-long absence of Prince Salman. Ahmed had operated in Nayif's shadow as Vice Minister of Interior - the youngest of the so-called "Sudayri Seven," his candidacy might provoke objections from those opposed to further concentrating that faction's power. Last, but not looming least, stood Prince Muqrin: head of Saudi intelligence, enigmatic, constant companion of the King, and hitherto deemed unsuitable because of his "Yemeni" mother.

Most senior among the grandsons on the Allegiance Commission was Al Baha Governor Mohammed bin Saud (born in 1934), followed by Mecca Region Governor Khalid Al-Faisal (born in 1940). If they were too old to be viable candidates when the time comes, presumably other members of the Commission who also held government positions would also be considered, such as Khalid bin Sultan, born in 1947. Beyond these, however, the field of qualified grandson-candidates appeared limited. None of the other members of the Allegiance Commission have national leadership credentials, though six are provincial governors. Outside the Commission, grandsons who had ascended to national leadership positions are few. Only two were ministers: Saud Al-Faisal (1940), and Abdulaziz bin Fahd, a minister without portfolio, among the youngest, born in 1973.

The circle of those holding ministerial rank was somewhat larger, and include governors and advisers such as Sultan bin Fahd (1952), President of Youth Welfare; Deputy SANG Commander Miteb bin Abdullah (1953); Abdulaziz bin Abdullah (1962), an adviser to the King; and Tourism Head Sultan bin Salman (1956). Other influential contenders include Assistant Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayif (1958), Assistant Petroleum Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman (1960), Deputy GIP Chief Abdulaziz bin Bandar (1951); and Mansur bin Miteb (c1950), Assistant Minister of Public Works.

The dearth of national figures among the next generation of Al Saud is striking and reflects the centralization of power and reluctance among senior princes to delegate or groom successors other than their own sons; each branch of the family has developed or been consigned to a particular fiefdom that is difficult to grow beyond. This maintains a balance of power among the princes but hampers the development of national leaders. It also makes it very difficult for any king to redistribute portfolios.

No doubt the jockeying had been under way for some time, though it was a campaign that will take place entirely behind closed doors, subject only to the Al Saud's unique, opaque, and tribal rules for consensus building. The process has been historically impervious to outside interference. If history is any guide, the candidate who emerges will be able to count on the support of his brethren, and his first priority will be consolidating his position to ensure continuation of Al Saud rule.

Beyond that, like all of his predecessors, he would seek to protect Saudi interests through his Kingdom's critical partnership with the United States. In fact, the "new" generation of princes may be more inclined to do so than the current one. Among the grandsons of Abdulaziz, whatever the differences among them, nearly all shared a common experience of having studied in, and therefore presumably being favorably disposed towards, the United States.