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Madagascar - Politics

In the 1946 National Assembly elections, the Merina-dominated Democratic Movement for Malagasy Renewal (MDRM) won all three of the available seats. Some 50-80,000 people died in a revolt against colonial rule, which began in 1947 and was not completely subdued until December 1948. Blame for instigating the rebellion was placed on extremist elements of the MDRM despite the fact that people from all over the island participated.

Coups are very common in Madagascar. Political power is concentrated, and policy commitments are difficult to make given the fragility of elite bargains. Big families (many of which descendants from the traditional Malagasy noblesse which once dominated the markets of Antananarivo and who rose in opposition to the leading noble families (e.g. the Merina) need political patrons to maintain their influence. Local politicians depend on financing by these families for their electoral campaigns. Since dominant coalitions of ruling elites are fluid and continue to change, a short-term ‘survival’ strategy is encouraged. There is powerful evidence for the capture of both the central and local executive and the Judiciary by private interests.

Although the population of Madagascar comprises some 18 ethnic groups who are united by a common Malagasy language, the two larger groups, Merina and côtiers, have a history of conflictual relations. Group members have migrated across the island's regions in search of economic opportunities, but are primarily located in the Central Highlands of Madagascar. The Merina, who reside in the highland plateaus, are the light-skinned descendants of those of Asian-Pacific origin. In contrast, the peoples of the coast are darker-skinned and are of African origins. They are collectively referred to as the côtier and include the Betsimisaraka of the east coast, the Tsimihety of the north and the Antandroy of the south. The Merina follow multiple religious beliefs, but the Protestant church receives its largest support from the Merina population. Unlike the other ethnic groups of Madagascar, the Merina and Betsileo practice a turning of the dead where relatives are taken from the tomb and reburied during a ceremony.

Formal authority has been exercised under the President, who has a near-imperial role with minimal checks on accountability. Formal institutions and mechanisms to ensure accountability, such as Parliament, the Judiciary and other oversight institutions are relatively ineffective. Likewise, informal accountability mechanisms, such as social accountability tools by civil society are still in the early stages and will take time to be developed and expanded to the national level. They have shown promise at improving services, and in making local governments more inclusive, but have not yet been scaled up to higher level governance issues.

Governing institutions in Madagascar have been significantly reformed but they have been reformed to the benefit of each sitting President rather than to support robust governance. The lack of independence of the political parties, the legislating environment, and the Judiciary has undermined their core functions. Governance reforms have also had little chance of success because the governing environment itself has shown little stability. Each President has changed the constitution to suit his needs and the territorial divisions of the country itself regularly shift both in the number of levels and the relationships of power between decentralized and deconcentrated units.

The political leadership does not allow institutions to compete with it. Madagascar has not witnessed decades of a “big man” rule unlike other African countries, and each President has considered himself a reformer and an institution-builder. There is relatively strong technical capacity in Madagascar, in comparison with other countries. However, governance reforms did not have any lasting effect as institutions were subservient to personal networks. The persistent governance pattern is the building of formal institutions to the point that they do not threaten Presidential power and undermining them when and where they do.

Given the strong influence of political and economic elites, the legal framework is applied selectively, and has given rise to a perception of widespread impunity. Even where good legal frameworks and policies exist, they are applied inconsistently, in line with the limited reform commitments by the political and economic elite, which will not allow any reform moves beyond its comfort zone and sphere of control.

In neo-patrimonial rule as found in Madagascar, the Presidency maintains power through personal patronage but leaders are part of the administrative system not in competition with it. Leaders occupy office in order to grow status, acquire wealth, and, ultimately, support their personal networks that manage public space. Rent-seeking serves to ensure an equilibrium in which it is beneficial for competing Malagasy elites not to recur to violence for attaining resources or power. As such, the formal rules of the state itself have limited capacity. Rather, governance is characterized by interlocking public and private networks seeking control of rents as a mechanism for maintaining power and stability.

Commitments within the dominant elite coalition are fluid and unstable, shocks can easily lead to violence and the rise of new coalitions, and it is difficult for elites to commit to particular rules. In political economy terms, overstepping the limits of the “elite bargain” that allows Presidents to rule, would make it no longer acceptable to other elite members of the dominant coalition. Using governance reforms for consolidating the grasp on political power and using public office for giving preference to own companies, accruing too large a share of economic rents would threaten the rent-seeking interests of other economic elites which could lead to defection. Seen in this light and the framework of the Limited Access Order, the political turmoil and the threat of violence which occurred in 2009 was an inevitable outcome of the logic of the struggle for power among Malagasy elites.

One suggested conclusion is that the nature of the crisis is deeper and more structural and difficult to be resolved by the presence or absence of individual personalities on the political stage. It appears that Madagascar is going to require a new elite bargain to resolve the current political deadlock (which prospect does not seem immediate) or, failing that, a political upheaval that reveals new political actors who might influence a resolution. The political and economic crisis has an enormous cost because it sets back economic and social development and will likely result in an increase in poverty rates.

Madagascar's outgoing president Andry Rajoelina launched his re-election campaign on 10 October 2023, promising "an orange wave" to thousands of supporters wearing his party colour who gathered in the capital, Antananarivo. Voters in the Indian Ocean island nation will elect a president on November 9 but the run-up to the poll has been marred by tensions after disputes over its regularity. For more than a week, opposition parties have held demonstrations against what they call an "institutional coup" to keep Rajoelina in power that have routinely been dispersed by police. "Go to your towns, your districts, go throughout Madagascar to create an orange wave," Rajoelina, sporting orange trousers, sunglasses and a white shirt said, from a stage set up in a pine forest in the suburb of Akamasoa. "No one will take the victory away from us," he told the crowd, which included rich, SUV-driving Malagasy as well as poor people living off scraps from a nearby dump. The rally marked the start of the campaign period, but 11 of the 13 candidates in the running said on Monday they would abstain from campaigning until their grievances are addressed. Rajoelina, 49, resigned last month in line with the constitution in order to run for re-election. The president of the Senate, Herimanana Razafimahefa, was supposed to take over but declined for "personal reasons", leaving the task to a "collegial government" headed by the prime minister, an ally of Rajoelina. The move was accepted by the country's top court, which also dismissed appeals to have Rajoelina's candidacy declared void over his dual French nationality, sparking opposition anger. The 11 opposition candidates have since led almost daily, unauthorised marches in the capital, which have been met with a heavy police presence and tear gas. Presidential hopeful Andry Raobelina, who was injured at a rally last week and later sought medical attention in the nearby island of Mauritius, has since filed a court appeal to have the elections postponed citing "force majeure". In another development on Tuesday, Razafimahefa sent a letter to the Constitutional Court walking back on his decision to turn down the caretaker role. "I am determined to assume my responsibilities," he told journalists, citing the "spectre of a political crisis" threatening Madagascar. The United Nations on Tuesday expressed concern over the "deteriorating human rights situation" in Madagascar in the runup to the polls after "unnecessary and disproportionate force" was used to disperse protests. Daily newsletter Receive essential international news every morning Subscribe "There should be clear instructions to the security forces to uphold the rights to freedom of expression, association, and assembly and to refrain from using disproportionate force -- to create an environment conducive to free, fair, and transparent elections," UN human rights office spokesman Seif Magango said in a statement. Rajoelina first took power in 2009 on the back of a coup. After not running in the 2013 election due to international pressure, he was voted back into power in 2018. He has since held the reins in a country that remains among the poorest in the world despite vast natural resources.