Madagascar - 2023 Election
Voters in the Indian Ocean island nation elected a president on 16 November 2023 but the run-up to the poll had been marred by tensions after disputes over its regularity. Andry Rajoelina secured a third term in an election marred by a low turnout and an opposition boycott.
Madagascar's outgoing president Andry Rajoelina launched his re-election campaign on 10 Octobe 2023, promising "an orange wave" to thousands of supporters wearing his party colour who gathered in the capital, Antananarivo. "Go to your towns, your districts, go throughout Madagascar to create an orange wave," Rajoelina, sporting orange trousers, sunglasses and a white shirt said, from a stage set up in a pine forest in the suburb of Akamasoa. "No one will take the victory away from us," he told the crowd, which included rich, SUV-driving Malagasy as well as poor people living off scraps from a nearby dump.
Rajoelina first took power in 2009 on the back of a coup. After not running in the 2013 election due to international pressure, he was voted back into power in 2018. He has since held the reins in a country that remains among the poorest in the world despite vast natural resources. Rajoelina, a former mayor of the capital Antananarivo, is accused by rivals of corruption, greed, and turning a blind eye to the pillage of the country's natural resources, including its precious rosewood forests.
The rally marked the start of the campaign period, but 11 of the 13 candidates in the running said they would abstain from campaigning until their grievances are addressed. For more than a week, opposition parties held demonstrations against what they call an "institutional coup" to keep Rajoelina in power that have routinely been dispersed by police.
Madagascar had been in turmoil since media reports in June revealed Rajoelina had acquired French nationality in 2014. The opposition argues that Rajoelina should be disqualified from the election because he obtained French citizenship. Rajoelina said he took up dual citizenship to secure his children’s education in former coloniser France. According to rivals' interpretation of the law, Rajoelina should have been stripped of his Malagasy nationality, and with it, the ability to lead the country, since he was an adult when he applied for a second nationality. However, the country’s highest court ruled in his favour in October 2023.
Opposition leaders also allege that the national electoral commission lacks independence. They also demand the establishment of a special court to deal with electoral disputes, alleging that the High Constitutional Court is packed with Rajoelina allies.
His critics were further enraged by another ruling allowing for a presidential ally to take over on an interim basis after Rajoelina resigned under the constitution to run for re-election. The crisis erupted after Rajoelina, 49, resigned in September in line with the constitution in order to run for re-election. The president of the Senate, Herimanana Razafimahefa, was supposed to take over but declined for "personal reasons", leaving the task to a "collegial government" headed by the prime minister, an ally of Rajoelina. The move was accepted by the country's top court, which also dismissed appeals to have Rajoelina's candidacy declared void over his dual French nationality, sparking opposition anger. Later Razafimahefa sent a letter to the Constitutional Court walking back on his decision to turn down the caretaker role. "I am determined to assume my responsibilities," he told journalists, citing the "spectre of a political crisis" threatening Madagascar.
Those boycotting - aligned in the so-called Collectif des 10 - are a collective of former political rivals including former leaders Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina. They organised peaceful marches across the capital almost every day since late September but security forces have violently put them down, leading to serious injuries and dozens of arrests. The 11 opposition candidates have since led almost daily, unauthorised marches in the capital, which have been met with a heavy police presence and tear gas. Presidential hopeful Andry Raobelina, who was injured at a rally and later sought medical attention in the nearby island of Mauritius, filed a court appeal to have the elections postponed citing "force majeure". Voters in Madagascar were initially due to head to the polls on November 9, but the top court in October ordered that the elections be postponed by a week after a presidential candidate was injured during a demonstration. The date for a potential second round vote on December 20 was kept unchanged.
The United Nations expressed concern over the "deteriorating human rights situation" in Madagascar in the runup to the polls after "unnecessary and disproportionate force" was used to disperse protests. "There should be clear instructions to the security forces to uphold the rights to freedom of expression, association, and assembly and to refrain from using disproportionate force -- to create an environment conducive to free, fair, and transparent elections," UN human rights office spokesman Seif Magango said.
The head of Madagascar's lower house of parliament on 13 November 2023 called for the suspension of next week's presidential elections, after weeks of regular opposition rallies. Six prominent presidential candidates in Madagascar said they plan to boycott this week’s elections, worsening a political crisis engulfing the country. The six, who are part of a larger grouping of opposition candidates holding almost daily protests for weeks, said they will not take part in the vote and will urge their supporters not to cast their ballot. “We will call (on people) not to go and vote,” said presidential hopeful Marc Ravalomanana, 73, one of two former presidents to join calls for a boycott.
Most of Madagascar’s 30 million people still live in poverty in a country whose economy is anchored in agriculture and tourism but is largely dependent on foreign aid. There has been a drop in the number of children attending school, and water and electricity shortages plague the capital, according to the World Bank.
According to a five-year study by local NGO Ivorary, only 13% of Rajoelina’s promises from the 2018 election have been fulfilled. The opposition grouping had urged voters to shun the ballot, complaining of an “institutional coup” in favour of Rajoelina
As polling stations closed and counting started on 16 November 2023, two senior sources at the electoral commission told AFP, on condition of anonymity, that preliminary data suggested less than 20 percent of those registered showed up to vote. “We do not recognise these elections and the Malagasy population in its great majority does not recognise them either,” Hajo Andrianainarivelo, 56, told a press conference in the capital Antananarivo, speaking on behalf of 10 of 12 opposition candidates. “The elections did not respect the required democratic standards and this was proven by the participation rate, which was the lowest in Madagascar’s electoral history,” he added, citing observers’ reports which also put turnout at around 20 percent.
Rajoelina won 58.95 percent of the votes cast in the November 16 presidential election, according to the results presented by the poll body which need to be validated by the Constitutional Court. Turnout was just over 46 percent, down on the previous presidential election in 2018, which the election commission blamed on "ambient political climate" and "manipulation of opinion". "The Malagasy people have chosen the path of continuity and stability," the 49-year-old Rajoelina said after the results were announced.
Mathew Miller, US State Department Spokesman, stated 01 December 2023 "The United States commends the Malagasy people for exercising their civil and political rights in Madagascar’s November 16 presidential elections. The United States reaffirms its commitment to work cooperatively with President-elect Rajoelina, the government, and the people of Madagascar for the development of the country and in support of respect for human rights for every individual.
"We further commend the government and the people of Madagascar for ensuring that election day was calm and peaceful in most locations. However, the electoral process raised some serious concerns that must be addressed for the peace and future well-being of the nation. Many stakeholders, including Malagasy citizens and both domestic and international election observers, noted irregularities in the electoral process. Further, most recommendations made following the 2018 and 2019 elections remain outstanding.
"We strongly urge the National Independent Elections Commission to take action to address these deficiencies and call on Malagasy authorities to thoroughly investigate all irregularities and allegations of fraud, implement needed reforms highlighted by international and domestic observers, and address the needs and wishes of the citizens of Madagascar.
"The United States calls upon Madagascar to show commitment to the democratic process, its constitution, and the rule of law. The Malagasy people deserve and expect free and fair elections, held peacefully, as well as good governance. We urge the government to increase confidence in its institutions and ensure the integrity of future elections.
"The United States condemns all violence and urges the Malagasy people to address any election-related grievances through Madagascar’s established legal processes."
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