Taiwan Confrontation - Introduction
John Culver, career CIA analyst and former National Intelligence officer for East Asia, stated : "I don't think there's a timeline. But at some point in the next decade, there might be.... They want to be able to put a stamp that says they began the process that would lead toward unification but at the same time, they would set the timeline so far out that they were kicking it down the road to be dealt with by their successors. What's different now, of course, is that the factors that kind of created stability over the Taiwan issue over the last 40 years are all weakening.... China no longer has the excuse of being weak and Chinese domestic opinion is increasingly nationalistic. So if there was an incident or provocation, I'm worried that China would feel that this time, unlike in previous episodes, it could not back down and would have to rise to the framing."
By the year 2027, which marks the centennial of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), China will build a fully modern military, a goal that is in alignment with the national strength and will fulfill the future national defense need, Chinese analysts said 21 October 2020, after the Communiqué of the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) set the development goal of the PLA in following years. According to the Communiqué of the fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, the country’s national defense capabilities and economic strength should be strengthened at the same time and reach the centennial goal of building a modern military by 2027.
According to the Communiqué, with the aim of building a modern military as the centennial goal by 2027, China’s military will accelerate its integrated development in “mechanization,” “informatization” and “intelligentization,” comprehensively strengthen military training and preparation. By then, the strategic ability to defend national sovereignty, security, and development interests will be largely improved, the Communiqué says.
The plenary session proposed a new "centennial goal." The plenum proposed to speed up the modernization of national defense and the armed forces, and realize the unity of a prosperous country and a strong military. Carry out Xi Jinping’s thought on strengthening the army, implement the military strategy of the new era, adhere to the party’s absolute leadership over the people’s army, insist on building the army through politics, reform and strengthening the army, strengthening the army with science and technology, strengthening the army with talents, governing the army according to law, and accelerating the integration of mechanization, informationization and intelligence Develop, comprehensively strengthen military training and preparations, improve the strategic ability to defend national sovereignty, security, and development interests, and ensure that the goal of the century-old military is achieved in 2027.
President Xi Jinping explained to President Trump in 2017, the Taiwan question "is the most important, most sensitive core issue in China-US relations, and concerns the political basis of the China-US relationship." Taiwan has always been the most important issue in Sino-American relations - a point made clear to Henry Kissinger when the two sides first met in Beijing in 1972.
After the fall of Kabul, Global Times opined 16 August 2021 in an unsigned [ie, the official view of the CCP] "Many people cannot help but recall how the Vietnam War ended in 1975: The US abandoned its allies in South Vietnam; Saigon was taken over; then the US evacuated almost all its citizens in Saigon. And in 2019, US troops withdrew from northern Syria abruptly and abandoned their allies, the Kurds. Some historians also point out that abandoning allies to protect US interests is an inherent flaw that has been deeply rooted in the US since the founding of the country.
"How Washington abandoned the Kabul regime particularly shocked some in Asia, including the island of Taiwan.... Once a cross-Straits war breaks out while the mainland seizes the island with forces, the US would have to have a much greater determination than it had for Afghanistan, Syria, and Vietnam if it wants to interfere. A military intervention of the US will be a move to change the status quo in the Taiwan Straits, and this will make Washington pay a huge price rather than earn profit.
"But the difference is the deeper hopelessness of a US victory if it gets itself involved in a cross-Straits war. Such a war would mean unthinkable costs for the US, in front of which the so-called special importance of Taiwan is nothing but wishful thinking of the DPP authorities and secessionist forces on the island.... once a war breaks out in the Straits, the island's defense will collapse in hours and the US military won't come to help. As a result, the DPP authorities will quickly surrender, while some high-level officials may flee by plane."
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