Taiwan Confrontation - Trump 47
The Trump administration is pressuring Taiwan to relocate a significant portion of its semiconductor manufacturing to the US, with the goal of producing 50% of America's chip needs domestically, or face potential reductions in US security commitments against China. This push came amid broader efforts to "de-risk" the US economy from overreliance on Taiwan, which currently supplies about 90-95% of advanced chips used globally, including in critical US industries. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick publicly stated that Taiwan should aim for a "50/50" split—half of chip production in Taiwan and half in the US—to ensure continued American protection. He argued that the current imbalance makes it harder for the US to justify defending Taiwan if China invades, as it would disrupt global supply chains too severely. This aligns with Trump's broader "America First" strategy to bring manufacturing home, including semiconductors, steel, and pharmaceuticals. Taiwanese officials, including lead tariff negotiator Deng Chen-chung, firmly rejected the demand, stating they "will not agree" to producing 50% of semiconductors in the US. They argue that such a shift would undermine Taiwan's economy and its "silicon shield" (the idea that its chip dominance deters Chinese aggression). Experts estimate that achieving US self-sufficiency could take 10-20 years, even with TSMC's existing $100 billion+ investments in American facilities (e.g., in Arizona). This pressure builds on earlier Trump-era policies, like tariffs and incentives under the CHIPS Act, to relocate production. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world's largest chipmaker, has already committed to US expansions but faces challenges like skilled labor shortages and higher costs in America. Some analysts see this as a strategic move to reduce US vulnerability in a potential Taiwan-China conflict, while others criticize it as economic coercion. After Trump won the election, he revealed that he had invited Chinese leader Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration. This week, he said on a conservative talk show that he and Xi Jinping have been in dialogue through their respective representatives, and he believes that the two should be able to "get along very well." The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded positively, saying that China "attaches importance" to Trump's relevant statements on both sides, but did not confirm that Xi Jinping had a dialogue with Trump through representatives.
Although Trump seemed to be creating a friendly atmosphere with the Beijing authorities before taking office, his national security team nominees include quite a few people who have a tough stance on China. How the confrontation between the two sides on the Taiwan Strait issue will unfold in the next four years, and how the Joe Biden administration's emphasis on maintaining communication and engagement with China and "building guardrails" to responsibly manage competition with each other will change in the past four years, are all issues of concern and curiosity.
Some Chinese scholars said that in the next four years, the leaders of the United States and China will focus on dealing with internal reforms and economic issues, and Xi Jinping has no plans to "set a timetable for unifying Taiwan." However, this statement was interpreted by some people as Beijing may adopt another "hiding its strength and biding its time" approach in the next four years in order to deal with Trump, whose style of behavior is unpredictable.
Yan Xuetong, honorary dean of the School of International Relations at Tsinghua University in China, published an article titled "Why China Isn't Scared of Trump" in the U.S. journal Foreign Affairs last month. In his article, he pointed out that in the next four years, Beijing will focus on revitalizing the domestic economy and "will not set a specific timetable for unifying Taiwan." He also believes that Trump will also focus on domestic reform and economic development and is unlikely to take radical actions on the Taiwan issue at the risk of a great power war.
Luzhong Weng, a professor of political science at Sam Houston University in Texas, said he believes Trump will deal with Beijing immediately after taking office and hopes to "settle" the negotiations with China quickly. "The buildup over the past few months has shown that Trump believes he can handle the negotiations with China and gain the upper hand at the negotiating table," he said.
As for how Beijing will respond to Trump's request for negotiations, Weng Luzhong believes that Xi Jinping is currently facing many internal challenges, and Trump's chances of "gaining" from dealing with China are also increasing. "Relatively speaking, Beijing's focus in negotiations with the United States may be to ask the United States to 'less support' for Taiwan, and this is exactly the part that Trump cares least about." In short, Weng Luzhong said that the United States may have the upper hand in the confrontation between the two countries, "but Beijing will emphasize on the Taiwan issue that it has successfully made the United States not support Taiwan independence," so each side has something to publicize as a victory.
Regarding Yan Xuetong's statement that Xi Jinping will focus on revitalizing the domestic economy and "will not set a timetable for unifying Taiwan", Weng Luzhong believes that although this is not necessarily "conveying the central government's instructions", it is "not far off."
"In the next four years, Beijing will not show weakness on the surface, but in reality it will be another form of 'hiding its strength and biding its time', with the focus on internal reorganization," he said. "Trump's election will ensure that there will be no war in the Taiwan Strait for four years, because Xi Jinping will not want to confront the relatively crazy Trump head-on. The rational Biden and the Democratic Party that prioritizes progressive values ??are much easier to control," said Weng Luzhong.
Ivan Kanapathy, who served as senior director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia affairs on the White House National Security Council during Trump's first term, said he expects the new administration's Indo-Pacific policy to have many similarities with Trump's predecessor and will not sacrifice the United States' "hard deterrence" on the Taiwan Strait issue in order to reassure Beijing.
Jian Yirong said in a podcast of the China Power Project of the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that he expects Trump to continue the approach of his predecessor and put pressure on his closest allies to pay more for their own security and share more responsibilities in order to maintain a strong alliance. At the same time, he will also demand a fairer competitive environment in trade and hope to bring more manufacturing back to the United States.
He said that in the face of a more aggressive and coercive China, a second-term Trump would put China's challenges and threats first, and when dealing with China, the Trump team would not give Beijing any verbal guarantees for dialogue or engagement with Beijing. Beijing is not satisfied with the US's "no support" for Taiwan independence “For example, I think the United States still maintains our policy of not supporting Taiwanese independence, or things like that, but I think it’s more about the actions or inactions that people might choose to take,” Mr. Kan said.
"It's almost like if you give China something then they're always going to ask for more, like Xi Jinping reportedly told Biden, 'It's not enough that you say you don't support Taiwanese independence, I want you to say you oppose it,' and that's the typical outcome," he said.
Jian Yirong said this is just one example of dealing with China. Other examples include whether the United States sends high-level officials to Taiwan or does not sell weapons to Taiwan. "That's what we saw for many years under the Barak Obama administration. They used this as a form of reassurance, right? But they actually sacrificed real, true hard deterrence."
Yan Xuetong of Tsinghua University said in an article in the journal Foreign Affairs that no matter how sharp Trump's remarks are, he will avoid open conflict with China, even on the sensitive issue of Taiwan, because he wants to be one of the greatest American presidents in history. To achieve that goal, he will focus on domestic reforms and building a stronger economy. "He will not want to get involved in Taiwan affairs and risk a great power war - after all, he is very proud of not starting any war during his first term."
Yan Xuetong also said: "The issue of Taiwan independence has always been and will continue to be a source of friction between Beijing and Washington, but China and the United States are unlikely to go to war over it. In the next four years, Beijing's attention will be mainly focused on reviving China's slowing economy. China does not intend to set a timetable for reunification with Taiwan because it is most concerned about its own economic growth."
He said that although Trump launched a trade war with China during his first term, overturning decades of U.S. policy, and his rhetoric and cabinet personnel arrangements also mean that he will redouble his tough stance on China, Chinese leaders are not afraid of Trump because they have learned a lot from his first term. "His inclination toward economic protectionism will lead to more disputes and heightened tensions, but Beijing believes it can handle such a confrontation. In addition, Trump's less-than-firm commitment to U.S. allies will prompt other countries to adopt a hedging strategy, building ties with Beijing to offset uncertainty in Washington," Yan said.
The outside world generally believes that the statements of Chinese scholars often reflect the policy positions of the authorities. Yan Xuetong published an article in an important American diplomatic journal before the new US president took office. Does it mean that China will focus on revitalizing the economy in the next four years and "will not set a timetable for unifying Taiwan"?
In response to this question at a regular press conference on December 25, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, said: "This is the personal opinion of a scholar," and said that since 1949, the Communist Party of China, the Chinese government and the Chinese people have always regarded resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving complete reunification of the motherland "as an unswerving historical mission." The motherland must be unified and will inevitably be unified. This is an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
