Find a Security Clearance Job!

Military



Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq


March 2008
Report to Congress
In accordance with the
Department of Defense Appropriations Act 2008
(Section 9010, Public Law 109-289)


Footnotes

1 This report also meets all requirements of Section 609 of Public Law 110-161.

2 The data cutoff date for this report is February 26, 2008.

3 Headline inflation in 2007 was 4.7%, compared to 2006 headline inflation of 65%. Headline inflation includes fuel, electricity, transport and communications.

4 Inma translates as "growth" in Arabic.

5 Five PHCs have been deprogrammed, reducing the total planned from 142 to 137.

6 Sahawa al Iraq translates as "Awakening Movement of Iraq" in Arabic.

7 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "How would you describe the security situation today in the country?" Nationwide, 26% said "Calm," 35% said "Violent," and 38% said "Sometimes calm and sometimes violent." Sample size: ~12,000. Margin of error: ~1%, <8% provincial.

8 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "How would you describe the security situation today in your province?" Nationwide, 50% said "Calm," 14% said "Violent," and 34% said "Sometimes calm and sometimes violent." Sample size: ~12,000. Margin of error: ~1%, <8% provincial.

9 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "How would you describe the security situation today in your neighborhood?" Nationwide, 67% said "Calm," 9% said "Violent," and 22% said "Sometimes calm and sometimes violent." Sample size: ~12,000. Margin of error: ~1%, <8% provincial.

10 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "Do you agree with the following statements? I feel safe and secure in my neighborhood and I feel safe traveling outside my neighborhood." Nationwide, 79% of respondents agree that they feel safe inside their neighborhoods and 49% feel safe traveling outside their neighborhoods. Sample size: ~12,000. Margin of error: ~1%, <8% provincial.

11 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "How would you rate the level of peace and stability in Iraq today?" Nationwide, 41% of Iraqis rate the country as "Stable," 33% rate the country as "Unstable," 22% rate the country "Neither Stable or Unstable," and 4% "Unsure or Did Not Answer." Sample size: ~8400. Margin of error: ~ 1.5%, <10% provincial

12 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "How much confidence do you have in the following to improve the overall security situation in Iraq? Iraqi Army" Nationwide, 77% of Iraqis answered "I have confidence in the Iraqi Army's ability to improve the overall security situation." Sample size: ~8400. Margin of error: ~ 1.5%, <10% provincial.

13 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "How much confidence do you have in the following to protect you and your family against threats? Iraqi Army." Nationwide, 76% of Iraqis had at least a little/some confidence in the ability of the Iraqi Army to protect them/their family against threats. 16.8% said "Not Confident." Sample size: ~8400. Margin of error: ~ 1.5%, <10% provincial.

14 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "How much confidence do you have in the following to protect you and your family against threats? Iraqi Police." Nationwide, 74% of Iraqis had at least a little/some confidence in the ability of the Iraqi Police to protect them/their family against threats. 20% said "Not Confident." Sample size: ~8400. Margin of error: ~ 1.5%, <10% provincial.

15 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "How much confidence do you have in the following to protect you and your family against threats? Multi-National Force." Nationwide, 27% of Iraqis had at least a little/some confidence in the ability of Multi-National Force-Iraq to protect them/their family against threats. Sample size: ~8400. Margin of error: ~ 1.5%, <10% provincial.

16 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "Do you think the Iraqi Police are winning or losing the battle against fighting crime?" Nationwide, 51% of Iraqis answered "Winning." Sample size: ~8400. Margin of error: ~ 1.5%, <10% provincial.

17 Nationwide poll, January 2008: "Do you think the Iraqi Army is winning or losing the battle against terrorists?" Nationwide, 54% of Iraqis answered "Winning." Sample size: ~8400. Margin of error: ~ 1.5%, <10% provincial.

18 U.S. appropriated funds used for generating Iraqi military and police forces include US$5 billion in the fiscal year (FY) 2004 Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF). It also includes US$5.4 billion in FY2005 for the Iraq Security Forces Fund (ISFF) followed by additional injections of US$3 billion in 2006, US$5.5 billion in 2007, and projected expenditures of US$3 billion in 2008-a total of US$21.9 billion.

19 Four separate analyses informed these Iraqi force end-strength estimates. The first was the May 2007 MNSTC-I In-stride Assessment of the Iraqi force growth required in 2008 to protect the population, overmatch the enemy, provide the depth necessary to deploy forces across the country, and implement an annual retraining and reconstitution program. The second was Iraqi military Service plans focused on the 2010-2015 period and MoI Plans that addressed near-term police force growth. The third was an MNC-I assessment of the Iraqi Army's required enduring posture by 2010. The fourth was a MNSTC-I directed, MNF-I sponsored Iraqi force analysis conducted by the Center for Army Analysis. The primary objective of this assessment was to determine if the projected, near-term (2010) Iraqi forces were capable of overmatching the anticipated threat. The assessment concluded that Iraqi forces were incapable of overmatching the threat and recommended additional force structure growth and specific capabilities.

20 Mission critical items include up-armored HMMWVs, armored vehicles, wheeled Armored Personnel Carriers, heavy weapons and fuel trucks.

21 These 37 MOSQ courses presently consist of seven Medical, four Transportation, four Maintenance, five Military Police, four Administration, four Supply, four Signal and five Armorer courses

22 The December 2007 report indicated that 11,932 former officers are serving in the IA. However, based on accounting errors in the MoD pay system, the IA inadvertently counted some officers as former regime personnel when in fact they were not "re-joiners." This is the reason why more "re-joiners" are counted in the December 2007 report than in this report.



NEWSLETTER
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list