Vagner in Niger
On July 26, 2023, the presidential guard of the Republic of Niger detained President Mohamed Bazoum. The military of the west African nation of Niger deposed the government in a coup, setting the stage for a new confrontation with the West. Niger had been in a similar situation to most states in West Africa, with its former colonial overlord France continuing to wield financial and military power over the country and involved in the country's domestic affairs. For that reason, the coup had been popular, with even a few protesters demanding France get out and Russia come in. In the new geopolitical environment, African states had increased political space and options to expel Western influence.
Niger, a landlocked, impoverished and war-torn country, albeit one rich in raw materials, became a new frontier. In the era of American unipolarity, the states of Africa were exposed to the West. Poor, desperate, and unstable, many African nations relied on their former colonial overlords, as well as the US, for various forms of assistance. This was especially true during the ‘war on terror' era, when Islamic insurgencies threatened the security of their populations. French and US Special Forces deployed to fight terrorists in West African states. However, this assistance, be it financial or military, came at the cost of requiring that African states fulfill the terms and conditions of the West – to some a form of neocolonialism.
The world has changed, though. The war-on-terror context is over, and instead the geopolitical environment dictated by sharp competition between powerful countries – primarily the US and its allies against rivals such as China and Russia. This environment meant that African states now had other "options" to choose from for assistance, which allowed them to maximise their own political autonomy and space rather than fulfilling the conditions of another.
African states reportedly increasingly used the Wagner Group for security rather than Western assistance, while China's Belt and Road initiative also means African states can no longer be exploited by organisations such as the IMF.
In these circumstances, with militaries being the strongest political actors in unstable countries such as Niger, the opportunity arose for them to seize power and be protected from Western response, because in this international system, the US could not conduct direct unilateral military interventions. This has seen governments and militaries take advantage of an anti-French backlash across West Africa and use it to begin driving out the presence of the former colonial masters. In just the space of a year, the French army was expelled from Mali and Burkina Faso. Niger ws presumably next. However, the risk of a French-backed civil war remained.
Should the coup in Niger ultimately succeed, the new authorities are intent on forming closer relations with Russia, which can become a new and much less complicated guarantor of security. While China typically provides economic and infrastructure assistance to African states, as well as a guarantee of non-intervention and support for national sovereignty, it is less overt and restrained in providing specific military support to crush insurgencies, which is more Russia's niche.
Niger of course has strategic significance too. While it is easy to dismiss it as a landlocked and impoverished country in the middle of the desert, Niger has a critical stock of natural resources, including uranium, coal, gold, iron ore, tin, phosphates, petroleum, molybdenum, salt, and gypsum. Its uranium supplies are among the world's largest, which is absolutely critical for nuclear power. It is for this reason that France is not willing to give up Niger without a fight, and a potential proxy conflict may loom.
All of this made Niger into the world's most unlikely new frontier. While talk of coups and civil wars in Africa may seem ordinary to Western audiences, they are now happening in a new geopolitical environment widely perceived as a new Cold War. The West's condescending attitude towards Africa, a continent that seeks its own independence and prosperity, is taking its toll. Doors are opening for other players.
Russia officially condemned the coup, a natural, consistent stance not related to Moscow's sympathies towards the Bazoum regime, as his administration chose not to attend the Russia-Africa Summit, taking cues from the US and France above all. Thus, Russia not only keeps in mind the 2014 coup in Ukraine, but also supports the African Union in its zero-tolerance policy towards coups.
The US, which has about 1,100 troops and at least four military bases in Niger, has been barred from using its $110 million drone-launching facility built in 2019 in the wake of the military takeover.
A Ukrainian official accused Moscow of orchestrating the coup in Niger, referring to alleged involvement as a "standard Russian tactic". Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, said Russia was behind the takeover. On the social media outlet X (formally known as Twitter), Podolyak wrote, "It is now absolutely clear that Russia is behind the so-called ‘military coup' in Niger. It is a standard Russian tactic: to divert attention, seize the moment and expand the conflict."
"Russia has a global scenario for provoking instability to undermine the global security order," he said. "Its time to draw the right conclusion: only the removal of [Russian President] Putin's clan and sending Russia to the political rebirth can guarantee the inviolability of rules and stability to the world."
Russia's Wagner Group has not claimed responsibility for the coup but Prigozhin has hailed the military takeover. Prigozhin's fighters played a significant role in many African states, to the dismay of the West, and most recently arrived in the Central African Republic (CAR) ahead of a constitutional referendum. Niger's new military junta asked for help from the Russian mercenary group Wagner as the deadline nears for it to release the country's ousted president or face possible military intervention by the West African regional bloc,
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