Vagner in Mozambique
Russia’s game plan for Africa, where it has applied its influence as far north as Libya and as far south as Mozambique, is straightforward in some ways, say analysts. It seeks alliances with governments shunned by the West or facing armed uprisings and internal challenges to their rule.
The Wagner Group, a private military company (PMC) based in Russia, gained attention for its involvement in various conflicts and military operations around the world, often linked to the Russian government's interests. This group has been reportedly involved in conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, Africa, and other regions.
Mozambique is a country in Southeast Africa that has experienced internal conflict and insurgency in recent years, particularly in the northern province of Cabo Delgado. The province has vast, still untapped oil and gas deposits estimated to be worth over $60 billion. Instability has prevented those from being developed.
Cabo Delgado is home to Africa’s three largest Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) projects: the Mozambique LNG Project (Total, formerly Anadarko) worth $20bn, Coral FLNG Project (ENI and ExxonMobil) worth $4.7bn, and Rovuma LNG Project (ExxonMobil, ENI and CNPC) worth $30bn.
The Cabo Delgado insurgency had been a significant security concern since 2017. The insurgency in northern Mozambique started mainly because of growing poverty and inequality in the region. Mozambique’s coastal Cabo Delgado province, where the attacks took place, is endowed with rich natural resources. In 2011, natural gas fields valued by another estimate at approximately $150bn were discovered about 40 kms (30 miles) off the Cabo Delgado coast.
And gas is not the only valuable natural resource in the region. Rubies excavated in Cabo Delgado are also selling for millions of dollars. In 2014 alone, rubies from the Montepuez mine sold for $407m.
Amid all these riches, however, the local population of Cabo Delgado is living in poverty. A study conducted by the UN University World Institute for Development Economics Research in 2016 found that 90 percent of households in Mozambique’s northern provinces, including Cabo Delgado, were deprived, while less than 10 percent of households in southern provinces were considered deprived.
The wealth gap between the north and the south of the country only grew with the establishment of the large LNG projects in the region, as the profits from these projects benefitted international investors and the Mozambican elite rather than the local population.
The growing inequality led deprived young men from the region to join insurgent groups led by local hardline preachers purporting to fight for justice and equality. As these groups started attacking gas projects and security forces, the Mozambican state and private mining companies responded by increasing military presence in the region.
The initial attacks by insurgents were committed with crude weapons and were very small-scale. But as sophisticated weaponry started making its way to the region in the hands of security forces, this changed very quickly. Insurgents started raiding government facilities and stealing weapons, and they used these weapons to stage more sophisticated and larger-scale attacks. ISIL (ISIS), meanwhile, started claiming that it has strong ties to and control over insurgents in northern Mozambique to show strength as it lost ground in the Middle East.
Islamist militant groups, particularly those with ties to the Islamic State (ISIL), have been carrying out attacks in the northern province of Cabo Delgado. These attacks have targeted civilians, security forces, and infrastructure. The group's actions have led to the displacement of more than 400,000 people and the deaths of more than 2,000 in the Cabo Delgado region. The conflict has spread to neighboring Tanzania, raising the potential of destabilizing part of southern Africa and boosting a group with declared ties to the Islamic State.
Several private military contractors were helping Mozambican authorities’ efforts to contain the insurgency. First there were reports indicating that the Wagner Group had been operating in Mozambique to support the Mozambican government in its efforts to combat the insurgency. The nature and extent of their involvement have been a subject of controversy, with the Mozambican government denying their presence. The mercenaries with the Wagner Group arrived in Mozambique in late 2019 to help Mozambican security forces. About 200 mercenaries from the Wagner Group landed secretly in Cabo Delgado in September 2019. The fact that Wagner secured the lucrative contract over a number of African-based PMCs with solid experience operating in the region highlights the opacity of such contracts.
Revelations by other PMCs that missed out on the Mozambican contract when it was given to Wagner Group showed that at that time, they were charging monthly bills of up to $25,000 for each contractor on the ground, in addition to equipment and other logistical considerations. The monthly payments to a PMC easily can surpass the salary bill of Mozambique’s entire 11,200-person Army, whose Soldiers are paid an average of $70 per month.
Wagner’s lack of regional experience was costly. By November 2019, Wagner had hastily retreated from Cabo Delgado after suffering heavy losses, including some beheadings. Emboldened by their victories against the better-equipped Russian forces, the insurgents launched more daring attacks in 2020.
Dyck Advisory Group, a private security company, led by retired Zimbabwean Colonel Lionel Dyck, has been active in northern Mozambique for over a year. The group entered the region after the private Russian military company, Wagner, which had deployed 2,000 men, withdrew after losing 10 of their men in late 2019. Before Rwandan and SAMIM forces intervened, Mozambique turned to private military companies, first from Russia’s Wagner Group, then from South Africa-based Dyck Advisory Group. Wagner forces left after sustaining losses, and Dyck left after its contract expired in early 2021.
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