Vagner Group in Moldovav
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, analysts and officials have warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could widen the war to Moldova, where Russia has more than 1,000 troops deployed in the breakaway pro-Russian Transdniester region. In March 2023, Moldovan police said a member of Wagner had been arrested and charged along with others -- some of whom were from Russia -- with attempting to stir up unrest.
Russia's Wagner mercenary group was involved in alleged Kremlin-led efforts to foment civil unrest in Moldova in the hope of destabilizing the pro-Western government, leaked U.S. military documents indicate. The Wagner-backed plot allegedly included plans to hold "protest training" in Turkey for "more than 150 participants" that would include "lessons on starting protests, security service reaction to riots, first aid, and psychological training for what to do if caught," according to the classified U.S. document, dated 28 February 2023.
With Moscow's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials and others warned the Kremlin had its eye on Moldova, and specifically Transdniester, hoping to build a land bridge across Ukraine's Black Sea shoreline. Moldova's national intelligence agency warned of that very scenario in December 2022, saying the Kremlin was considering opening a second front.
On 21 February 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden met with Sandu in Poland where he "reaffirmed strong U.S. support for Moldova's sovereignty and territorial integrity." That statement came after Putin announced that Russia had revoked a decree that recognized Moldova's sovereignty in resolving the dispute over Transdniester, a sliver of land that borders Ukraine. The decree, enacted in 2012 when Russia's relations with the West were less fraught, was annulled to "ensure the national interests of Russia" following "profound changes taking place in international relations," according to the Kremlin's website.
Moldova's capital, Chisinau, was roiled by protests in February and March, sparked by inflation and rising fuel bills amid a drop in Russian oil and gas deliveries on which Moldova is dependent. The protests were organized by a group calling itself the Movement For The People and backed by members of Moldova's Kremlin-friendly Shor Party, whose founder and leader, Ilan Shor, now living in Israel, was convicted of fraud in 2017 for the theft of $1 billion from three Moldovan banks in 2014.
The protests came with the pro-Western government teetering and then falling on February 10 when Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita announced her resignation after a turbulent 18 months in power marked by economic turmoil and the spillover effects of Russia's war in Ukraine. A new pro-Western government led by Prime Minister Dorin Recean was sworn in quickly on February 16 after receiving the backing of 62 lawmakers from the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), with the pro-Russian Bloc Of Communists And Socialists in opposition and the Shor Party boycotting the vote.
On 12 March 2023, Moldovan police said that they had foiled a plot by groups of Russia-backed actors specially trained to cause mass unrest during a protest in the capital against the country's new pro-Western government. The head of Moldova's police told a news conference that an undercover agent had infiltrated groups of "diversionists," some of them Russian citizens, who had been promised $10,000 to organize "mass disorder" to destabilize the country during the Chisinau protest.
According to the leaked U.S. document, an employee of a Wagner-linked group described in the document as "The Farm" -- most likely the St. Petersburg-based troll farm Internet Research Agency, which is owned by Prigozhin and was specifically identified in the 2017 U.S. intelligence report on Russian efforts to interfere in the previous year's U.S. presidential election -- had in February contacted the head of Vegacy Strategic Services, another Russian private mercenary company. The two allegedly discussed adjusting their plans for destabilizing activities in Moldova.
Vegacy Strategic Services has been investigated by reporters for its alleged links to Wagner, with some claiming Vegacy is merely a cover for some Wagner operations. A photo believed to have come from the alleged Wagner member arrested in Moldova on March 9 shows a group of males in military fatigues with not only medals and patches associated with Wagner but apparently Vegacy as well.
According to the leaked Pentagon document, the organizers of the Moldovan protests had planned to train protesters in Turkey from February 24-28, but changed the location to a training center in Russia due to "Turkish intelligence's attention on Russian males."
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