• Military

• WMD Menu                           

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

Ukraine - Long Range Missiles

Multiple Ukrainian-developed missiles reportedly exceed the 300 km/500 kg payload limitations of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which Ukraine previously pledged to follow. However, since the MTCR applies to exports and not domestic production, and Ukraine is not a full member, the country is not technically in violation of the voluntary agreement.

Kiev wants to create ballistic missile systems that have the ability to strike deep into Russian territory and Ukraine had the potential for this, Dmitry Rogozin, head of the Roscosmos state corporation, said on 26 February 2022. "They [Ukraine] have legendary factories in Dnepropetrovsk, Yuzhnoye Design Bureau and Yuzhmashzavod. There is enormous potential there. Now their goal is to create their own ballistic systems, which will have a real ability to strike our territory," Rogozin told the Soloviev Live YouTube show. He noted that it would not be difficult for any team of engineers to increase the range of the Grom complex already operating in Ukraine.

The situation highlights the complex nature of missile nonproliferation guidelines during a war. MTCR is not a treaty: The MTCR is a voluntary association of governments, not a legally binding treaty. While Ukraine pledged to adhere to its guidelines in 1994, the regime lacks a formal enforcement mechanism for domestic production. The MTCR guidelines primarily seek to restrict the export of Category I systems—those with a 300 km range and 500 kg payload capacity. Ukraine's domestic production is not subject to these same restrictions.

While the US and other NATO members initially provided long-range weapons with strict limitations on hitting Russian territory, Ukraine's independent development has created a new dynamic. A January 2025 shift in US policy also introduced more flexibility for transfers of MTCR-controlled missiles to select partners, further complicating adherence to the original guidelines.

A direct U.S. transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles to another country would be restricted by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The transfer would violate the spirit of the MTCR, which is a voluntary export control regime, because Tomahawk missiles are a Category I system. The MTCR guidelines designate missiles with a range of at least 300 km (186 miles) and a payload capacity of at least 500 kg (1,100 pounds) as Category I systems. The export of these systems carries a "strong presumption of denial".

For Ukraine, developing its own long-range strike capabilities is a strategic necessity to compensate for restrictions on Western-supplied arms and to degrade Russia's military infrastructure and economy. This serves to bolster its defense but also pushes the boundaries of a nonproliferation framework not designed for a full-scale invasion of a member-state.

Since the full-scale Russian invasion began, Ukraine has focused heavily on developing domestic long-range missile capabilities to overcome limitations on Western-supplied weapons, particularly restrictions on striking targets inside Russian territory.

Reports published in August and September 2025 indicate that Ukraine had developed and begun production of domestic long-range missiles and drones that exceed the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) guidelines. The MTCR restricts the transfer of missiles that can deliver a 500 kg payload over 300 km. Since this is a voluntary export control regime, domestically produced missiles are not bound by its rules.

Ukrainian missiles reported to exceed MTCR guidelines:

1. FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Flamingo cruise missile, with a reported range of up to 3,000 km, underwent successful tests in 2025 and that mass production was expected to begin by early 2026. The missile is also said to carry a 1,150 kg warhead, well above the MTCR payload limit. Developed by Ukrainian defense firm Fire Point, the Flamingo was publicly revealed in August 2025. It reportedly has a range of 3,000 km (1,900 miles) and carries a large 1,150 kg warhead, both significantly higher than MTCR limits. This would allow Ukraine to strike targets far into Russia, beyond the Ural Mountains. President Zelensky stated in August 2025 that mass production would begin that winter. The manufacturer claimed an ambitious production rate of up to 210 missiles per month, though experts are more conservative in their estimates due to potential engine supply bottlenecks. The Flamingo uses a turbofan engine, similar to those found in jet trainers. It also incorporates a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) guided by an Inertial Navigation System (INS), along with anti-jamming measures.

2. R-360 Long Neptune missile: The "Long Neptune" is a modernized version of Ukraine's R-360 Neptune anti-ship missile. First publicly revealed in August 2025, it has an estimated range of 1,000 km, allowing it to strike ground targets deep inside Russia. Ukraine has developed an extended-range, land-attack version of its original Neptune anti-ship missile. The new variant has an estimated range of 1,000 km, well over the MTCR threshold. Its first combat test reportedly occurred in March 2025. Technology: To achieve the longer range, the missile's fuselage was made longer and thicker to hold more fuel. It is designed to be a ground-launched weapon.

3. Project 145/2: upposedly unveiled in August 2025, this project was said to have developed a long-range cruise missile with a reported range of up to 1,000 km, designed for striking Russian logistical and military targets. But according to available data, there is no cruise missile with the designation "Project 145"The combination of the term "cruise missile" with the number "145" in the August 2025 news likely refers to discussions of the development, sale, and testing of various types of missiles.

4. US is actively considering Ukraine's request for Tomahawk cruise missiles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made the request during a meeting with US President Donald Trump at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025. The potential delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would likely not be as direct aid, but rather through a process involving European partners, known as the PURL mechanism. This is because the launch platforms for Tomahawks, such as the U.S. Navy's retired launchers, could be transferred to Ukraine, and European partners are also looking into acquiring Tomahawk systems.

Since the MTCR is a voluntary export-control arrangement, it does not prevent a country from developing its own missiles above the stated range and payload thresholds. Ukraine's development of these indigenous missiles allows it to bypass Western-imposed restrictions on using foreign-supplied weapons for deep strikes inside Russia. This has created a two-tiered system for Ukraine's long-range strike capability:

Foreign-supplied missiles, like U.S. ATACMS and UK/French Storm Shadow/SCALP, are subject to various conditions regarding range and use. Domestically produced missiles, such as the Flamingo and Long Neptune, have no such use restrictions, allowing Ukraine to hit targets anywhere inside Russia.

In May 2025, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged to help Ukraine develop its own long-range missile systems that would be free of Western-imposed limitations. In late 2024, the U.S. began allowing Ukraine to use some U.S.-supplied long-range missiles for limited strikes into Russian territory. However, the indigenous Ukrainian missiles provide far greater range and payload capabilities than the supplied Western systems.

In recent years, the U.S. has revised its missile-transfer policy, demonstrating increased flexibility in exporting Category I systems to allies with strong export controls. In early 2025, the Biden administration issued a new National Security Memorandum that increases flexibility for Category I transfers to vetted partners. Prior to that, the U.S. approved sales of Tomahawks to Australia and Japan in 2023, which analysts considered a break from prior U.S. restraint. In September 2025, a U.S. policy update on unmanned aerial systems exports again affirmed the U.S. intent to ensure its export processes do not contribute to proliferation, while also bolstering allied capabilities.

The U.S. has not supplied Tomahawk missiles directly to Ukraine. Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities are largely sourced from other Western nations and its own domestic production. Reports indicated that the U.S. has considered supplying Tomahawk missiles to European nations, which would then send them to Ukraine. This would likely be accompanied by restrictions on their use against targets within Russia, similar to the terms for other foreign-supplied missiles.

Since the MTCR is a voluntary political arrangement, the U.S. could choose to approve a Tomahawk transfer to Ukraine despite the guidelines, particularly if other members agreed. The recent shift in U.S. policy and the sales to Japan and Australia indicate a higher willingness to export these systems to allies.