RS-26 Oreshnik
For the first time in human history, and intercontinental ballistic missile was used in combat 21 November 2024. Developed as the chosen instrument for global thermonuclear war, in this instance the was fired with inert non-nuclear warhead. The kinetic energy of the reentry bodies, fired on a lofted trajectory and so reentering vertically, would surpass whatever damage might have been caused by adding conventional explosives. Russia had not officially confirmed the use of ICBMs.
The Ukrainian Air Force stated that on the morning of 21 November 2024, Russian troops fired various types of missiles at the city of Dnepr, including a Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, seven Kh-101 cruise missiles, and an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). According to the Ukrainian side, the ICBM was launched from the Astrakhan region, where the Kapustin Yar test site is located. The distance from the Kapustin Yar range to the Ukrainian front line is approximately 600 km. It is reported that this attack targeted the Southern Machine-Building Plant (Yuzhmash) ICBM production enterprises in Dnipro. "As a result of the anti-aircraft battle, units of the Air Force's anti-aircraft missile troops destroyed six Kh-101 missiles. There were no significant consequences for other missiles. There is currently no information about casualties or injured," the statement said.
There are four basic elements which combine to make Russia's strategic missile systems essentially impervious to even the most modern air and missile defense systems, Russian Air Defense Forces colonel and missile expert Mikhail Khodarenok said, among them their incredible speed, and ability to be armed with maneuvering hypersonic gliders. “Plus there are electronic warfare systems operating in the terminal stage, as well as dummy warheads. In such conditions, shooting simply becomes unrealistic,” Khodarenok summed up. [GlobalSecurity.org notes that this is a bunch of arm waving, as the speed is an issue addressed by the speed of the defense computers, while Oreshnik did not evidence the other countermeasures. Oreshnik is probably highly resistant to existing defenses, though not for these reasons. The Oreshnik warheads are relatively small inert chunks of metal, largely impervious to anything other than a direct hit. Such tungsten darts are rather small relative to a normal warheads and thus rather harder to high head-on, and are unattractive targets for million dollar interceptors].
The configuration, dimensions and mass of the Oreshnik rods are unknown, but a mass of 50 kilograms is plausible [50 kg x 36 = 1800 kg throw weight, a plausible number for the RS-26 at intermediate range]. Over time, the long dart penetrators of armor-piercing fin-stabilized discarding sabot ammunition had tended towards getting longer and skinnier, to better penetrate modern armored vehicles. And surely strategic penetrators might follow the same path if intended to attack deeply buried targets. But strategic dart ammunition applied against conventional targets such as factories may have the opposite problem, translating the rod's kinetic energy into target damage before the rod penetrates too deeply into the ground. A representative early anti-tank rod such as the M735 105mm penetrator with a tungsten core measures 0.47 meters / 18.75" and weighs 4.32kg / 8.4 pounds. A 50kg rod would have 23.1 times the mass of the M735, and need 23.1 times the volume of tungsten. Volume varies as the cube root, so Oreshnik would need a rod some 2.8 times larger in every dimension. This calculation suggests rods with a length of about 1.33 meters, a far cry from the "tungsten telephone poles" of Jerry Pournele's fevered imagination in the 1950s.
Neutrino @EternalPhysics noted that assuming the sub-munition (75 kg) has a cross sectional radius of 7 cm, the effective TNT would have been 5.5 tons of TNT (at the point of impact) at Mach 9 or nearly 10 tons of TNT at Mach 12. Assuming the sub-munition (75 kg) has a cross sectional radius of 6 cm, the effective TNT would have been 7.5 tons of TNT (at the point of impact) at Mach 9, or nearly 13.4 tons of TNT at Mach 12. Assuming the sub-munition (30 kg) has a cross sectional radius of 7 cm, the effective TNT would have been 2.2 tons of TNT (at the point of impact) at Mach 9, or nearly 3.9 tons of TNT at Mach 12. The immense energy of a high-speed rod is dissipated in a short burst, causing a combination of vaporization, spallation & shock wave propagation.
Putin said the Oreshnik was new and not an upgrade of previous Soviet-designed weaponry. The United States said the new missile is "experimental" and based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Oreshnik is indeed new, from the neck up, as this type of kinetic warhead has not been used before. However, from the neck down, it looks like a variant of the RS-26.
Ukraine initially accused Russia of having used an ICBM in the Dnipro attack. An ICBM has never been used in a war. Different countries have distinct brackets by which they categorize missiles. An ICBM is defined by the United States as a ballistic missile with a range in excess of 5,500km. Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) have ranges of between 3,000km and 5,500km, further than medium-range ballistic missiles with ranges of 1,000-3,000 km (620-1,860 mi). A short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) has a range of 300 to 1,000 kilometers (190 to 620 miles). SRBMs are part of a larger group of ballistic missiles called theater ballistic missiles, which have a range of less than 3,500 kilometers.
Ukraine's GUR military intelligence reported that the missile took 15 minutes to fly from the Kapustin Yar range in the Astrakhan region to the city of Dnipro, a distance of around 800 kilometers (500 miles), reaching a final speed of over Mach 11. So the Oreshnik was not flown to ICBM range, not even IRBM or MRBM range, but to SRBM range. The RS-26 missile itself, however, was initially tested with a lighter-weight payload, which flew to ICBM range. By definition, any missile can fly to a distance less than its maximum range. But it is the maximum demonstrated range that is used to classify missiles. The heavy Oreshnik payload was launched by an ICBM, even if the distance traveled was characteristic of an SRBM.
Close students of the history of the Soviet military industrial complex and the development of Soviet solid propellant strategic missiles will note the irony of this episode, which is surely not lost in certain circles in Moscow. The RS-26 Oreshnik missile was developed by Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MIT) initially headed by Nadiradze, while the target was the Yuzhnoye / Yuzhmash missile production factory founded by Yangel. Nadiradze was an early pioneer in the development of large solid propellant missiles, but found the technology quite challenging, resulting in a multi-decade lag relative to the Americans. Although the name Yangel is associated with large liquid propellent missiles - real crowd-pleasers like the SS-9 and SS-18 - toward to late Soviet period Yusmazh came from behind to win, producing world class large solid missiles that post-Soviet Russia has been unable to replicate. At times, war is the continuation of industrial rivalry by other means.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that such information should be sought from the Russian military, and he has nothing to say on the matter. During a press briefing on November 21, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova received a phone call in which an unknown interlocutor asked her not to touch on the topic of a possible intercontinental missile strike at the briefing. Several days earlier, State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin warned that "It is possible that new weapons systems, which the Russian Federation has not used on Ukrainian territory, will be used."
The Russian Defense Ministry said "On November 21, 2024, in response to the use of US and UK long-range weapons against targets on the territory of Russia, the armed forces launched a combined strike against one of the facilities of the Ukrainian defense industry complex in Dnepropetrovsk. For the first time in combat conditions, the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile in non-nuclear hypersonic equipment was successfully used in the strike. The launch objective was achieved. All warheads reached the target".
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his statement: "In the city of Dnepropetrovsk, one of the largest and most famous industrial complexes from the Soviet Union, which still produces missile technology and other weapons, was hit." Russia already has a stockpile of Oreshnik missile systems, and a decision on the system's mass production has been made, Putin announced 22 November 2024. "We will continue these tests, including in combat conditions, depending on the situation and the nature of the security threats that are created for Russia, especially since we already have a stockpile of such systems ready for use," Putin said. The achievements and pace of development of the Oreshnik system inspire pride and admiration, and developments in the defense sector like the Oreshnik are of vital importance for Russia's security, Putin added. "The weapons system that was tested yesterday is yet another reliable guarantor of Russia's territorial integrity and sovereignty," the president said. "The creators of the Oreshnik missile system - those who designed and organized the production of this new complex, will certainly be nominated for state awards."
"Keeping in mind the great power of this weapon, it will be put into service with the Strategic Missile Forces specifically," Putin said. "In addition to the Oreshnik system, several systems of this kind are currently in development for further testing in Russia today," Putin said. "Based on the results of testing, these weapons will also go into production. That is, we are developing a whole lineup of medium and shorter-range systems." According to Ukrainian monitoring publics, a 50-ton RS-26 Rubezh with multiple warheads was used to strike the Dnieper. Developed based on Soviet designs in the mid-2000s and making its first flight in 2011, it is capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 6,000 kilometers. According to the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration (OVA) Serhiy Lysak, as a result of the missile attack on the Dnipro, a rehabilitation center for people with disabilities was damaged. The boiler room was partially destroyed, several dozen windows were broken. There is also damage in the garage cooperative, where a fire broke out. In addition, according to Lysak, an industrial enterprise and two private homes were damaged.
The day before, Ukrainian Telegram channels wrote without citing sources that Russia could strike Ukraine with an RS-26 Rubezh ICBM, which is capable of carrying a nuclear charge. Some of them assumed that it would be a test launch, while others reported a combat launch. On November 20, the embassies of the United States, Italy, Greece, and Spain in Ukraine announced that they would be closed.
Video of the final impact of the reentry vehicles is visuallly quite remarkable, and resemble the lightning strike scene in "War of the Worlds". The RVs themselves are glowing from the heat of reentry. And as they emerge from a low cloud layers, the shock wave from high speed of their final descent creates a conical condensation cloud. The single RS-26 Rubezh road mobile missile was equipped with six independent, non-nuclear warheads, with some sources claiming that each in turn deployed other warheads (call it 6x6 = 36). The GUR of Ukraine claimed that the new Russian MRBM that flew over Dnepropetrovsk carried six warheads with six submunitions in each.
There are apparently two videos of the strike. In one, the cluster of submunitions are viewed edge on, and the trajectory of each individual submuntion is clear, though the field of view is restricted and possibly not all 36 impacts are recorded. In the other video, the submunition clusters are viewed edge on, with the impacts barely distinguishable from six impacts rather than 36. In the later video, the half dozen impacts are generally indistinguishable, strongly suggesting that there were indeed a total of 6 x 6 = 36 submunitions.
In essence, this system would work much like the "Hypervelocity Rod Bundles" mentioned in the 2003 "US Air Force Transformation Flight Plan;' a theoretical weapon system that, in many circles, has come to be known as the "Rods from God'. There has been much discussion about the concept of these "Rods from God;' kinetic energy weapons capable of delivering enormous destruction due to their enormous kinetic energy. The destructive force of these weapons is directed almost entirely in the path of the weapon’s travel; for this reason, suitable targets include missile silos [particularly], ships, hardened aircraft shelters, command bunkers and tall buildings. Against softer area targets such as military factories, they would like mainly serve to punch narrow but deep holes into the factory floor. The fact that the energy was dissipated underground in the attack of 21 November 2024 is indicated by the absence of anything resembling a detonation on impact.
The absence of serious or widespread damage from the Oreshnik attack would be masked by the damage from the nearly simultaneous attack on Yuzhnoye by a Kinzhal aeroballistic missile and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles.
In September 2024, the Russian president emphasized that the approval to use long-range NATO strike systems to target areas deep inside Russia would constitute the Western alliance's direct participation in the proxy war in Ukraine against Moscow, because only NATO servicemen have the authority to make flight assignments for these missile systems. "So this is not about whether or not to allow the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia using these weapons, but about deciding whether or not NATO countries are directly involved in the military conflict or not. If such a decision is taken, it will mean nothing short of direct participation of NATO countries, the United States, European countries, in the war in Ukraine. This would constitute their direct participation, and this, of course, changes the very essence, the very nature of the conflict. It will mean that NATO countries, the United States and European countries, are at war with Russia. And if this is so, bearing in mind the change in the very nature of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be posed to us," Putin said at the time.
The Russian president announced 21 November 2024 that the country's armed forces carried out a combined strike using the latest Oreshnik ["Hazel" or "Chestnut"] medium-range missile against a Ukrainian defense industry facility in response to US and British weapon strikes on Russian territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Kiev’s use of long-range weapons will not affect the course of the special military operation, and all its objectives will be achieved. Illusions about the possibility of delivering a strategic defeat to Russia, about the events currently unfolding in the zone of the special military operation, particularly in light of the use of long-range Western-made weapons against our territory [should not be held]," Putin said in his address.
The president reported that on November 19, Ukrainian forces attacked targets in the Bryansk region with six ATACMS missiles, followed by Storm Shadow system strikes in the Kursk region on November 21. Air defense systems repelled the attacks, resulting in no casualties or significant damage. Putin emphasized that the conflict in Ukraine has acquired global dimensions after these attacks. "From this moment, as we have repeatedly emphasized, the conflict in Ukraine, provoked earlier by the West, has acquired global characteristics," he stressed.
He noted that the use of long-range munitions against Russia is impossible without specialists from the countries where they were manufactured. "We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities. In the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond equally decisively and symmetrically," the president stated. He added that Kiev’s use of long-range weapons will not affect the course of the special military operation, and all its objectives will be achieved.
Putin likewise emphasized that the international security system was destroyed by the United States, which made a mistake by withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019. "Let me stress once again that it was not Russia but the United States that destroyed the international security system, and by clinging to its hegemony, it is pushing the entire world toward a global conflict," he noted. Putin added that Moscow will respond decisively and symmetrically in the event of escalation. He stated that Russia always advocates resolving disputes peacefully but warned against underestimating its readiness for any developments.
The president also said that the deployment of Russian intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles will depend on the actions of the US and its allies. Targets for future tests of advanced missile systems will be chosen based on threats to Russia. "Of course, when selecting targets for such systems as Oreshnik on Ukrainian territory as a necessary countermeasure, we will inform civilians and request citizens of friendly nations in those areas to leave dangerous zones in advance," the head of state stressed. "This will be done openly, publicly, and out of humanitarian considerations, without fear of opposition from the enemy," Putin emphasized during his address.
“The issue of the further deployment of short and medium-range missiles will be decided in response to the actions of the US and its satellites,” the Russian president said. Moscow will also continue the “combat tests” of its newest missile system, Putin warned, adding that Russia’s criteria for choosing targets for such tests will be determined by a security threat assessment. Moscow believes it has a right to target the military facilities of those nations that allow its weapons to be used against Russia, the president stated. “In case of an escalation, … we will deliver a decisive mirror-like response,” he said. Russia is still ready to “resolve all the differences in a peaceful way,” the president said, adding that Moscow is still “also ready for any developments” and one should not doubt that “there will always be a response.”
The Oreshnik missile system is being tested in combat conditions as a response to NATO countries' aggressive actions against Russia, he announced. "In response to the use of American and British weaponry on November 21 this year, Russian armed forces conducted a combined strike on one of Ukraine's defense-industrial complex facilities. This included testing one of Russia's latest medium-range missile systems in combat conditions. In this case, a ballistic missile equipped with non-nuclear hypersonic technology, referred to as Oreshnik by our missile forces, [was used]" Putin stated during his address.
Modern air defense systems cannot intercept Oreshnik missiles, which attack targets at a speed of Mach 10—about 2.5-3 kilometers per second, Putin explained. "Existing modern air defense systems worldwide, including the missile defense systems created by Americans in Europe, cannot intercept such missiles. It’s impossible," Putin said in his speech. "Vladimir Putin delivered a very powerful message to the West that they should revise the decision to escalate the conflict," Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at Russia’s Higher School of Economics, who participated in advising the leadership on amendment of the Russian nuclear doctrine and adoption of the new one, tells Sputnik.
With this move, Putin made it clear that if NATO countries continue to use their ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles against Russia, "then Russia might use its medium range missiles against those countries, against the military objects of these Western countries," Suslov continued. Moreover, Russia is ready for further escalation, according to the pundit. "If the West will respond to these Russian actions in the escalatory way, then Russia will escalate further. And the recent adoption of the newest Russian nuclear doctrine tells that Russia is basically ready at a certain stage to use evil nuclear weapons," he stresses.
The medium-range ballistic missile Oreshnik was given the name "Chestnut" so that “no one would guess.” This was reported by the head of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov, his words are quoted by the Telegram channel Shot. The streaking reentry of the clusters of metal rods rather resemble the blossoms of Castanea mollissima, the Chinese Chestnut. The tree is resistant to chestnut blight, which has nearly wiped out the native American chestnut, just as the Oreshnik system is resistant to missile defenses.
And the Hazel tree (Corylus avellana) may be identified by the long, yellow dangling parts, the male flowers called catkins, which appear in spring. Hazel (Corylus avellana) is an important understorey tree. Mesolithic peoples may have transported the nuts with them as a food source, and thereby aided the expansion of the tree’s range. Male flowers are in the form of catkins, which are pale yellow in colour and up to 5 cm. long. They open in February, when hazel and its companion deciduous trees are all leafless, so they are one of the first obvious signs of spring in the forest. Unlike trees such as birch, hazel has relatively few insect species that are specialist feeders, just as the Oreshnik system is resistant to missile defenses.
Kartapolov added that the civilian population would be warned in advance before the Oreshnik strike so that they would have time to leave the area.
According to Ilya Kramnik, a research fellow at the Center for the Study of Strategic Planning at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the development of the missile has been secret until now. "It can be assumed that we are dealing with a new generation of Russian intermediate-range missiles, that is, this is the upper range of medium range — from 2.5-3 thousand and higher, but not intercontinental, somewhere up to 5 thousand km. Obviously, it is equipped with a multiple warhead with individual guidance units," the expert told Izvestia. He admits that it is a Yars-M missile system shortened by one stage. The specialist also added that the Oreshnik missile could also be used with nuclear warheads.
According to military expert and editor of the Military Russia website Dmitry Kornev, a missile with such capabilities could have been created on the basis of the Iskander ballistic missile using a new generation solid fuel engine. " Russia has a priority in the global rocket industry in developing missiles of this type, as well as in creating hypersonic combat equipment for such missiles. In the spring of 2024, a new Iskander-class ballistic missile with an enlarged engine was shown for the first time in a video for the 78th anniversary of the Kapustin Yar test site. It may well turn out that this was the Oreshnik, — he suggested. “In any case, we have witnessed the first combat use of medium-range missiles in Russian history,” the expert added.
"The affected area includes all countries of continental Europe, from Poland and the Baltics to Portugal, as well as Great Britain. In addition, the affected area includes the newly minted NATO members: Finland and Sweden," the authors write. The flight time of the Oreshnik to Great Britain will be 19 minutes, to Poland - 8 minutes, to Belgium - 14 minutes, to Germany - 11 minutes, notes the Military Chronicle.
Deputy Chair of the Security Council, Dimitri “Unplugged” Medvedev, could not resist concise trolling; “So that’s what you wanted? Well, you’ve damn well got it!”
Putin said 22 November 2024 the country's new intermediate-range ballistic missile, a nuclear-capable weapon, will continue to be tested, including in combat conditions, as Moscow struck several Ukrainian regions with other weapons. "We will continue these tests, including in combat conditions, depending on the situation and the nature of the security threats that are created for Russia," Putin said at a meeting with Defense Ministry officials and military-industrial complex officials. The Kremlin leader also called for serial production to begin, something that could be challenging amid Western sanctions on technology exports to Russia, including semiconductors, a key missile component.
“We are conducting combat tests of the Oreshnik missile system in response to the aggressive actions of NATO countries against Russia. The issue of further deployment of medium-range and shorter-range missiles will be decided by us, depending on the actions of the United States and its satellites. The targets for destruction during further tests of our newest missile systems will be determined by us based on threats to the security of the Russian Federation. We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military installations of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities. And in case of escalation of aggressive actions, we will also respond decisively and in a mirror manner. I recommend that the ruling elites of those countries that have plans to use their military contingents against Russia seriously think twice about this.”
Russia's president provided new information about the Oreshnik missile system at a meeting with defense and military industry officials on 22 November 2024, saying the weapon's mass production has been approved, and that Russia already has a stockpile of such weapons. The Oreshnik is a fundamentally new weapon, not just a modernization of an older system, President Putin said. In addition, he noted, "several systems" like the Oreshnik "are currently in development for further testing in Russia today...That is, we are developing a whole lineup of medium and shorter-range systems."
Tested in combat in Dnepropetrovsk region against a major Ukrainian defense-related enterprise on 21 November 2024, the Oreshnik is modern Russia's first-ever intermediate-range ground based ballistic missile, with previous weapons in this class developed by the Soviet Union, and scrapped between 1988-1991 in accordance with the terms of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed at the twilight of the Cold War.
The Oreshnik missile flies at a speed of Mach 10, or 3 km per second, retired Russian Army colonel and military analyst Viktor Litovkin told Sputnik, explaining why it can't be intercepted by modern air defenses. “The unique feature of the Oreshnik missile system is that, firstly, it is a medium-range missile – it flies to a distance of 1,000 km to 5,500 km – and secondly, it is hypersonic, flying at a speed of Mach 10," retired Russian Army colonel and military analyst Viktor Litovkin told Sputnik 22 November 2024. Mach 10, or 10 times the speed of sound, equates to 3 km per second, the pundit noted. There is not a single air defense or missile defense system in the world capable of intercepting those hypersonic missiles, Litovkin stressed.
"The West does not have missiles that fly at such a speed or hypersonic missiles at all," the pundit continued. "Although the US has repeatedly boasted that it has such missiles, it has never demonstrated a missile flight. They appeared to show missiles that flew at a supersonic speed of 5.5 times the speed of sound or Mach 5.5. However, hypersonic speed begins at Mach 6-7." [GlobalSecurity.org notes that hypersonic missiles travel at speeds of at least Mach 5 – five times the speed of sound]. The missile’s operating principle is similar to that demonstrated by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, which is launched by the supersonic MiG-31K aircraft, or the Avangard hypersonic system's glide vehicle accelerated by the UR-100N U??Kh intercontinental ballistic missile, the expert explained. [GlobalSecurity.org notes that Kinshal is a simple ballistic missile, while Avanguard is a maneuverable glider, not in evidence with Oreshnik].
Mach 10 flight speeds mean “the Oreshnik can cause significant damage not only using nuclear or conventional munitions, but also simply with its kinetic force. That is, the impact of the Oreshnik warhead is powerful enough to penetrate concrete, penetrate earth embankments and explode in a deep underground command post, an underground factory, etc. No Western missile has such properties – neither medium-range nor strategic missiles,” Litovkin emphasized.
“We have a very large scientific and technical reserve for the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, with the Yars ICBM for example. In principle, achieving a similar result with the Oreshnik with such a reserve is possible in fairly short order. The Oreshnik, I think, is a creative evolution of ideas embedded in the Yars,” retired Russian Air Defense Forces colonel and missile expert Mikhail Khodarenok told Sputnik, commenting on the speed with which the new Russian missile was developed, and its successful combat testing.
“That is, it’s not a smaller version of the Yars, or a Yars missing one stage, but the development of the scientific and technical reserve, those technologies which our design bureaus and industry have today,” Khodarenok explained. Intermediate-range ballistic missiles like the Oreshnik “are in great demand” today, Khodarenok emphasized, particularly for a transcontinental power like Russia, amid US plans to deploy new ground-based missiles in Europe and Asia.
“For the US, possessing this class of weapons is not a matter of life and death, since they’re separated [from their main adversaries] by oceans,” the retired officer said. Russia is "traditionally strong" when it comes to the creation of new strategic missiles, Khodarenok said, "because whereas the enemy at one time focused on the creation of strategic aviation and naval weaponry, one of the strong points of our design bureaus and the defense complex was always strategic ballistic missiles.”
When it comes to Russia's outstanding modern-day rocket scientists, “first and foremost, it’s necessary to mention the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology and its head Yuri Solomonov,” Khodarenok said, referring to the Russian top engineer whose design team has been responsible for or involved in the creation of almost all of Russia’s modern strategic systems, including the Yars, Topol-M, Bulava and Sarmat, as well as hypersonic systems.
Commenting on the news that Russia is testing several Oreshnik-type systems, Khodarenok said that while it can only be speculated how these systems will look, in all likelihood “they will have different ranges, payload characteristics, guidance systems, systems for combating enemy anti-missile defenses, systems for jamming enemy radar.” The observer can imagine a smaller, cheaper Oreshnik variant with a 1,500-2,000 km firing range, for example, or missiles equipped with their own maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicles.
“We will find out about it only after the missile has been used in combat, because at the development and testing stage, all possible measures are taken to prevent leaks about weapons’ characteristics. And in general, the greatest effect from a new weapon is achieved with its sudden, unexpected and massive use,” Khodarenok said.
If it were an ICBM (and Rubezh was counted as a prototype ICBM for New Start Treaty rules), Russia would have to notify the US and China in advance of any launch. "Each Party shall provide the other Party notification...no less than twenty-four hours in advance, of the planned date, launch area, and area of impact for any launch of a strategic ballistic missile"... Dmitry Peskov, added that Russia did not notify the US and the EU in advance about the use of the Oreshnik missile against a military-industrial complex facility in Ukraine, since “Russia has no such obligation with respect to medium-range missiles.” Russia automatically warned the United States 30 minutes in advance about the launch of the new hypersonic missile "Oreshnik" via the line of the Russian National Center for Nuclear Risk Reduction (NCNRRR), said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov . According to the press secretary of the Russian president, the center maintains constant communication with a similar system in the United States.
"I can confirm that Russia did launch an experimental intermediate range ballistic missile," said Sabrina Singh during a briefing 21 November 2024 at the Pentagon. "This IRBM was based on Russia's RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile model. In terms of notifications to the United States, the United States was prenotified, briefly, before the launch, through nuclear risk reduction channels." The Defense Department has characterized the IRBM as "experimental" in that it's the first time a weapon of its kind has been used on the battlefield in Ukraine, Singh said.
"This was a new type of lethal capability that was deployed on the battlefield," she said. "That's certainly [of] concern to us ... I don't have an assessment of its impacts right now, but it's something that, of course, we're concerned by." Singh also said an IRBM and an intercontinental ballistic missile have similar flight paths, high trajectories and can carry large payloads. "But the main difference lies in the range and the strategic purpose," she said.
"Of course, we're going to take seriously the rhetoric coming out of Russia. But our focus remains on arming Ukraine and supporting Ukraine what it needs the most on the battlefield. And as a reminder, as this reckless rhetoric continues, Putin can choose to end this war today. He can choose to withdraw Russian forces and end this — and end, you know, his war of aggression and his war of choice. So, we're going to continue to focus on what Ukraine needs on the battlefield."
Washington is “provoking an escalation that completely changes the nature of the conflict,” military history expert Ricardo Cabral emphasized. The US allowing Kiev to use long-range weapons is "a continued psychological offensive" to test Moscow's tolerance, Venezuelan analyst Vladimir Adrianza noted, adding that the dangerous stage of the conflict stems from the “voracious appetite of the US military, financial and technological complex.”
Moscow has every right to defend itself against NATO's “sinister and criminal actions," noted Humberto Morales, professor at the Autonomous University of Puebla, Mexico. President Vladimir Putin has clearly conveyed the message that current events on the international arena demonstrate the “suicidal and irresponsible behavior by the West which threatens total destruction,” Lebanese political scientist Hassan Hmadeh underscored, adding, "The world must stand up to these evil people who are determined to destroy the planet, and the response must be commensurate with their actions."
Washington's approval for Kiev to use US-made missiles is intended to force Donald Trump’s future administration to “operate in geopolitical chaos,” Venezuelan international relations expert Wilmer Depablos said. With less than two months to go before the transfer of power, Biden is trying to make it as difficult as possible for the next president to resolve the Ukraine crisis, Iranian political scientist Emad Abshenas believes. Putin's order to use the Oreshnik missile is “a warning to NATO countries amid the growing threat of a world war,” Chinese pundit Sima Pingbang explained, going on to say that the Kiev regime has become “an obstacle to peace” and that “Biden and Zelensky are unable to accept Moscow's victory."
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov addressed several global issues 27 November 2024, including the recent "Oresshnik" ballistic missile test, in light of the Ukrainian crisis. By launching the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile, Russia has delivered a clear warning to the West: cease supplying weapons to Kiev and refrain from encouraging further military adventures, stated Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov.
"The message is very clear and straightforward: stop. You should no longer do this. Do not supply Kiev with everything they want, do not encourage them into new military adventures—they are too dangerous. The time is approaching when there will be no other way but to acknowledge that the U.S., NATO, and others playing this game on Kiev's side, along with the West, have become full participants in this conflict," he said, adding that Western nations are still toying with the mistaken illusion that they can pull off a strategic victory over Russia.
Russia has the means, including “superweapons,” to appropriately respond to any act of aggression against the country, Federation Council chairwoman Valentina Matvienko said 27 November 2024. Matvienko called Oreshnik a “powerful act of modern geopolitics” and “a powerful signal” that has been received “by all addressees.” However, she stressed that the use of the Oreshnik was “not an ultimatum, or a threat, as Western media have tried to represent it.”
“This is our response to the ongoing escalation by the West and the steps that led to the attack on Russian facilities using long-range weapons. We warn that this is unacceptable,” Matvienko said, adding that the use of the missile is also a “demonstration that we are ready for any development of events and we have the means, including superweapons, to give a tangible and inevitable response.” The chairwoman did not elaborate on which “superweapons” she was referring to. “As the president said, there will always be a response,” Matvienko said.
She also suggested that Putin’s speech and the deployment of the Oreshnik missile have “great potential to tip the scales in favor of choosing a peaceful way to resolve the [Ukraine] conflict with unconditional respect for the interests of Russia, our security and our sovereignty.” Matvienko expressed hope that Western leaders will draw the right conclusions from the latest developments, “come to their senses and admit that they have lost, that they have failed to achieve their goals of containing Russia’s development, that they have failed to inflict a geopolitical defeat on Russia, and sit down at the negotiating table on a wide range of issues.” Failure to do so will lead to a dead end, she warned.
High-precision Oreshnik missiles can have the same impact on enemy targets as nuclear weapons, but are far more humane due to the absence of irreversible consequences typically associated with nuclear strikes, Russian military analyst and editor-in-chief of National Defense magazine, Igor Korotchenko, told Sputnik 30 November 2024.
"From the materials that have already been made public, including video recordings of Oreshnik strikes on targets in Ukraine, it can be seen that the missile carries six warheads, each capable of independently hitting a target. The speed at which these warheads enter the atmosphere is so high that when they strike a target with kinetic impact, the resulting plasma cloud, along with the warhead’s speed, creates a force comparable to the explosion of a large meteorite," Korotchenko said.
Retired Russian army colonel and veteran military observer Viktor Litovkin said Oreshnik “ can be made as an intercontinental ballistic missile, not necessarily a medium-range one, by adding another rocket stage,” Litovkin said, recalling that in its present form, Oreshnik reportedly has two stages. When discussing any potential modifications to weapons like the Oreshnik, “it’s always important to remember the concept that the target must be more expensive than the projectile used against it. That is, you don’t shoot sparrows with a cannon,” Litovkin emphasized.
"It's necessary to understand that each type of target must have its own projectile," he noted, comparing, for instance, the power of the kinetic force-only strike of an Oreshnik flying at a speed of Mach 10 against an ICBM-launched Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle approaching at a speed of Mach 27. "Therefore, whether or not it's necessary to increase a projectile's hypersonic speed is decided in each specific case. It's noteworthy that the Kinzhal hypersonic missile has a speed of Mach 10, as does the Zircon, as does the Oreshnik...Perhaps, the weapons' designers have come to the conclusion that for comparatively short distances, there is simply no need to further increase the power, and that doing so would be expensive, and probably not rational," Litovkin summed up.
Vlad Shlepchenko wote 27 November 2024 that considering that the first strike was carried out on a large industrial enterprise, and one responsible for developing the most dangerous weapons, it can be assumed that this policy of "explosive deindustrialization" will be continued. In this case, strikes with hypersonic blocks can be expected against such enterprises as:
Oreshnik provides fundamentally new opportunities to hit targets in Western Ukraine, a region that Iskanders cannot reach and cruise missiles have significantly less power. Therefore, it is possible that this time there might be a strike on the Beskid Tunnel and bridges leading to Poland. On 27 November 2024, a NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions) appeared on the Internet - an official warning to airlines about the closure of air traffic over the Kapustin Yar test site from November 27 to 30. Considering that the previous launch of the newest Russian intercontinental ballistic missile "Oreshnik" was carried out from this very testing ground, some obsevers said that an official notification had been submitted about the upcoming use of the hypersonic complex. "Of course, it is impossible to say with 100% certainty that everything will be so, but the probability of another use of "Oreshnik" is very high."
- KB "Luch", Kyiv (anti-tank missiles, optics);
- Design Bureau "Artillery Weapons", Kyiv;
- Artem plant, Kyiv (producing shells);
- "Motor Sich", Zaporozhye (engines for helicopters and UAVs);
- "Ivchenko-Progress", Zaporozhye (gas turbine engines);
- "Vizar", Zhulyany (rockets "Neptune" and "Olkha");
- Precision Mechanics Plant, Kamenets-Podolsky (repair and maintenance of weapons);
- "Lorta", Lviv (radio equipment);
- Kyiv Radio Plant (electronics);
- 732nd military plant, Vinnitsa (repair and maintenance of special equipment of Soviet production);
- "Generator", Kyiv (electrical equipment);
- "Meridian", Kyiv (electronics);
- Vinnitsa Aviation Plant;
- "Radioizmeritel", Kyiv (devices for aviation and UAVs).
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