Hwasong-19 - 1st Flight - 31 Oct 2024
On 31 October 2024 North Korea launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) towards the Sea of Japan, also known in Korea as the East Sea, in what analysts say was the longest flight time yet for any North Korean missile. An official video report “World’s Strongest Missile Test" was released 01 November 2024 about the test of the new North Korean ICBM. The state-controlled Korean Central News Agency identified the missile as the Hwasong-19, dubbing it "the world's strongest strategic missile" ‘the latest version of the ICBM’ and a "perfected weapon system." Before the release of this video, considerable noise was generated by "file" photos of unrelated hardware.
The question of the "newness" revealed in this test is largely a function of the external dimensions of the missile itself. Some observers suggested This is a much larger missile than the Hwasong-18. The Hwasong-18 used a nine-axle transporter-erector-launcher (TEL), whereas the Hwasong-19 uses an eleven-axle TEL (similar to the liquid propellant Hwasong-17). At a glance, the Khasogn-19 aeroshell [aka nosecone] seemed rather blunter that Hwasong-18, suggesting the possibility of multiple warheads [though none were observed in this firs test]. Estimating the external dimensions of the Hwasong-18 has been a tricky business, given the absence of information on the cameras used to photograph the launches, and the angles from which the photos and video were taken. Some sources report a length of 28 meters, somewhat longer than the 25 meters assessed for the Hwasong-18. But there is no apparent variance between the Hwasong-19 launch and prior Hwasong-18 launches, suggesting that any improvements were minor internal upgrades, not so extensive as to require a new designator.
The Transporter Erector Launcher for the Hwasong-19 is clearly not off-road mobile, and given the parlous state of North Korean roads, is unike to be road mobile in any meangiful sense of the term. It seems suited for "Rollout to Launch" (ROTL), where final steps for launch are taken to prepare a missile once it is rolled out from its horizontal storage tunnel. This process is highly streamlined and designed for rapid readiness, particularly in military applications where response time is crucial. The standard "group photo" of the launch team indicates a head-count much smaller than liquid propellant test flights. ICBMs, such as the Minuteman III in the U.S. or the RS-24 Yars in Russia, are often kept in a high state of readiness, which means their ROTL processes are faster than typical launch vehicles or space-bound rockets.
China’s land-based nuclear forces primarily consists of ICBMs with different basing modes complimented by several theater-range road-mobile MRBMs and IRBMs. The PRC has approximately 100 ICBMs, including the silo-based CSS-4 Mod 2 (DF5A) and Mod 3 (DF-5B); the solid-fueled, road-mobile CSS-10-class (DF-31, DF-31A and DF-31AG) and CSS-20 (DF-41); and the more limited range roll-out-to-launch CSS-3 (DF4). China has 11 horizontal roll-out-to-launch sites for its CSS-3 ICBM, which has a range of 7,000 km. These sites are currently unoccupied, but six operational CSS-3 units are located in nearby support facilities and could be deployed in a crisis.
The missile flew for 86 minutes - the longest flight time ever recorded by the regime - and approximately 1,000km (620 miles) at a maximum altitude of 7,000km (4,350 miles) before it splashed down off the coast of Hokkaido, outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to Japan’s Defense Agency. By comparison, thr first announced test of the Hwasong-17 on 24 March 2022 had an apogee of 6,250 km (3,900 mi) and a horizontal displacement of 1,090 km (680 mi), with a total flight time of 4,050 seconds. Pyongyang last launched an ICBM-class missile on 18 December 2023, when it test-fired a nuclear-capable Hwasong-18 ICBM.
As the ratio of flight time, range, and maximum altitude indicates, this was a launch along a hover trajectory: with maximization of apogee at the expense of range. This is how the DPRK has usually tested its powerful missiles since 2016. Such launches allow all the necessary physical data to be collected and easily recalculated for launching along normal, combat, trajectories.
Pyongyang needs such trajectories for a number of reasons. Firstly, geography: North Korea is not a large enough country to freely test missiles of all classes only over its territory, as in Russia. Therefore, neutral waters have to be used. Secondly, there are several countries near the DPRK, and the Sea of Japan is not a large Pacific Ocean. And the outlines of state territories and waters in the region are not simple. And the fall of a missile in the territorial waters of neighbors is also unacceptable. This also forces shooting at the shortest possible distance so that the missile falls strictly in neutral waters and away from anyone's shores.
Thirdly, there remains the need to control the missile's flight. In the absence of a long-range tracking fleet and a satellite group capable of taking parameters of the product outside the visibility zone from the territory of the DPRK (or the waters of the Sea of Japan) due to the curvature of the earth's surface.
North Korean news agency KCNA said that the launch showcased "the world's strongest strategic missile", which was also tracked by military officials in South Korea and Japan before it splashed into the Sea of Japan. "The new-type ICBM proved before the world that the hegemonic position we have secured in the development and manufacture of nuclear delivery means of the same kind is absolutely irreversible," North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said during launch, according to KCNA. Photos released by KCNA showed a large, multi-stage missile launched from a canister carried by a transporter-erector-launcher vehicle. KCNA said the Hwasong-19 will deploy alongside the Hwasong-18, which was first launched by North Korea last year and was also powered by solid fuel.
Kim Jong Un claiming the regime has secured an "irreversible" means of delivering nuclear weapons. Kim said the launch demonstrated the missile's "matchless strategic nuclear attack capability before the world," according to a report in the official Korean Central News Agency. The new missile appeared to be substantially larger than its predecessor. Some images released by state media showed the "Hwasong-19" mounted on an 11-axle transporter-erector launcher while the Hwasong-18 uses a 9-axle TEL. But some of these images appeared to be of the rather hefty liquid propellant Hwasong-16 and seem to be "file" video. Other images more clearly associate the 11-axle TEL with the Hwasong 19.
Shamim Chowdhury reported for Newsweek that " ... analysts were quick to label the declaration as propaganda, saying that the missile's size renders it impractical for combat.... Despite the performance, experts suggest that the regime has yet to overcome critical technological challenges necessary for developing ICBMs capable of striking the U.S. mainland.... analysts note that both the missile and its launch vehicle appear oversized, raising concerns about their mobility and survivability in wartime scenarios. "When missiles increase in size, the launch vehicles do too, which hampers mobility," explained Lee Sangmin, a researcher at South Korea's Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.... The Hwasong-19 is estimated to be at least 28 meters long—significantly larger than advanced U.S. and Russian ICBMs, which typically measure less than 20 meters."
Japan's defense officials announced the North fired at least one missile at 7:11 a.m. from an area believed to be close to the capital, Pyongyang. They say the missile is believed to have fallen outside of Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone, about 200 kilometers west of the island at 8:37 a.m. They also said the flight lasted one hour and 26 minutes, the longest of the ballistic missiles the North has ever launched. He added it is estimated to have flown about 1,000 kilometers, reaching a maximum altitude of 7,000 kilometers. Japanese government sources say the missile may have been fired at a lofted trajectory. That means it was fired at a steep, almost-vertical angle. The coast guard officials say they had not received any news about damages related to the launch so far. This would be the 12th time this year the North has launched ballistic missiles, or projectiles believed to be ballistic missiles.
The state-run Korean Central News Agency reported that the country's leader Kim Jong Un attended the launch. The leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, made the announcement through the country's state-run news agency. He said, "The test-fire is an appropriate military action that fully meets the purpose of informing the rivals, who have intentionally escalated the regional situation, ... of our counteraction will." North Korean state media confirmed that an ICBM was launched to inform “rivals” of the country’s powerful capabilities, while Japan’s Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said the test could possibly mark a “new” kind of ICBM missile. Test launching long-range missiles is an important part of North Korea’s military development process as leader Kim Jong Un acquires a vast arsenal of missiles and nuclear weapons that analysts say are capable of one day reaching targets as far as Japan and the US.
Kim Jong-un's prompt comment on the weapons test is also seen as a rare move. A professor at Dongguk University noted "It is very unusual for the North Korean state media to report the ICBM launch so quickly. I think the reason probably lies in their confidence in its success." The North usually sends out messages a day after it tests missiles but in a surprise move, Kim Jong-un delivered a message just five hours after the launch. Likewise, the North appears to have embedded several strategic aims behind its latest missile launch, amid heightened security tensions in the Middle East and on the Korean Peninsula. The KCNA also quoted a defense ministry spokesman as saying the test, conducted on Kim’s orders, set a record for strategic missile capabilities and demonstrated the modernity and reliability of the North’s world-leading strategic deterrence forces.
Japan's Defense Minister Nakatani Gen said: "The missile launched this time is believed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile. But the ministry is continuing to analyze details, including whether it was a new type of ballistic missile."
South Korea's defense ministry said that North Korea might have launched a new type of long-range solid fuel ballistic missile from a large mobile launcher with 12 wheels on each side. The launcher was first revealed in September when North Korea's state-run media released photos of it. South Korea's initial analysis has shown that the missile is presumed to be a new solid-fuel ICBM. The South Korean military said North Korea may have fired a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), using the recently unveiled 12-axle transporter erector launcher (TEL). At a press briefing, Joint Chiefs of Staff(JCS) spokesperson Lee Sung-joon shared the early-stage assessment, adding that further analysis is necessary to determine whether the missile is an improved version of the existing Hwasong-18 or a completely new model. The spokesperson said Pyongyang may be aiming to develop the capabilities to load a heavier warhead and strike any part of the United States. When asked about the North’s intentions with the latest test, the spokesperson said the military views it as part of the regime’s strategy to gain leverage ahead of next week’s U.S. presidential election.
"The missile could fly a longer distance than existing ICBMs if it were to be launched at a normal angle. In that sense, it can be seen as an even bigger threat." Professor Kim explained that such a launch could put the entire U.S. within striking range. The provocation was anticipated by many,.. as the U.S. is approaching its presidential election next week. However, another expert said there's more behind Pyongyang's motives. "The focus on this provocation was more on showing that North Korea's maintaining its defense posture even after the dispatch of troops to Russia, rather than the U.S. presidential election. It's showing that it has sufficient nuclear power to maintain deterrence despite the dispatch of troops."
A retired vice admiral of Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force says Russian technical assistance to North Korea may have helped the country upgrade its missile technology. North Korea's state-media announced it had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday. Its flight reached the highest altitude and lasted the longest of all the ballistic missiles the North has ever launched. Ito Toshiyuki, now professor at Toranomon Graduate School of Kanazawa Institute of Technology, said that while the propellant force of the first stage is believed to be unchanged, North Korea "may have used new technology to upgrade the missile's second and third stages which are used to add propellant force to the missile after it travels out of the atmosphere".
Ito inferred that North Korea "may have acquired new technology from Russia and that it may have launched the missile to test such technology". He said it will become possible to determine whether the missile was a Hwasong-18, its upgraded type, or a completely new missile, once North Korea reveals images showing the object ascending into the sky.
An NHK camera on Hokkaido's Okushiri Island caught a footage of white objects appearing to fall over the Sea of Japan west of the island at about the same time when the missile is believed to have fallen. Ito said the objects looked bright because they were burning with the heat generated as they were falling. He added that the first object is the missile's warhead and the following one could be the third stage. As they were no other visible warheads in flames at the same time, Ito concluded it is unlikely the missile had multiple warheads.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine strongly condemned the next launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by North Korea on October 31, 2024. "This is another irresponsible provocation that undermines peace and stability both on the Korean Peninsula and in the world as a whole. North Korea, which provides Russia not only with artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles, but also sends its military units to participate in the war against Ukraine, continues to deliberately destabilize the situation," the ministry said in a statement.
According to Ukrainian diplomats, the test of the missile, which reached the maximum height compared to previous launches, indicates the further advancement of the North Korean missile program. "On this background, the deepening of military cooperation between the Russian Federation and the DPRK is of particular concern, which requires an immediate and decisive response from the world community. We call on our partners to take immediate action to resolutely oppose the Russian and North Korean regimes — from increasing sanctions pressure on Moscow and Pyongyang to maximally strengthening Ukraine's capabilities in within the framework of the victory plan presented by President Volodymyr Zelensky," the statement reads.
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa said the latest launch is an outrageous act that escalates tensions in the entire international community. He said North Korea's actions threaten the peace and security of Japan, the region and the international community. He added that it is totally unacceptable.
President Yoon Suk Yeol called for close coordination with the international community in response to North Korea's latest ICBM launch. Following a briefing by the National Security Council hours after the launch on this Thursday morning, President Yoon also called for extensive preparation against any unexpected provocation by North Korea. South Korea's National Security Council, for its part, has denounced North Korea's violation of UN Security Council resolutions and has decided to designate fresh sanctions on the regime while working with partners to ensure effective implementation of existing sanctions.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said that "North Korea's long-range ballistic missile launch is a clear violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Our military strongly condemns the Kim Jong-un regime's illegal and reckless provocations and urges it to stop immediately as this harms peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and the international community." The JCS added that North Korea has been engaging in "illegal provocations" despite repeated warnings from the South, and warned that the North will be responsible for any kind of circumstances that may follow.
White House National Security Council Spokesperson Sean Savett said in a statement that the launch is a "flagrant violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions." It says "US Indo-Pacific Command has assessed the launch did not pose an immediate threat to US personnel, or territory, or to its allies." But it added the launch needlessly raises tensions and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region. The statement also said the national security team is closely coordinating with US allies and partners. It adds that the United States will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the American homeland and its allies, South Korea and Japan.
NHK World's reporter and former Seoul correspondent Tokuda Ryosuke says there is no doubt Pyongyang did this with the United States in mind ahead of the presidential election next week. The Policy Research Council of Japan's main ruling Liberal Democratic Party Onodera Itsunori told reporters that, given the long flight time, the missile may have been capable of reaching the east coast of the US. Onodera says the North sent a very strong message.
Following Kim Jong Un's visit to a uranium-enrichment facility in September, Pyongyang announced this month that he inspected ballistic missiles at strategic-missile bases. Tokuda says the North could be trying to demonstrate to the world it will continue to be a nuclear power. He also says North Korea will not change its stance of strengthening its deterrence against the US, regardless of which candidate wins the upcoming US presidential election.
Pyongyang's five-year defense plan, published in 2021, calls for advancing various types of missile development. The plan includes the development of solid fuel ICBMs that can be launched quicker than those using conventional liquid fuel. In September North Korea unveiled a mobile launcher larger than previous models. South Korea's defense ministry said North Korea may have used the new mobile launcher on Thursday to fire the long-range ballistic missile.
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa told reporters after the launch that there could be more missile launches and also possibly a nuclear test. Pyongyang revealed plans late last year to launch three more military reconnaissance satellites by the end of the year 2024. Hayashi says Japan will work closely with the international community, including the US, South Korea and the UN Security Council, to deal with the North.
NHK's reporter Tokuda Ryosuke says North Korea has been rapidly making closer ties with Russia, which is one of the council's permanent members. He says this relationship makes the council dysfunctional. Tokuda says that Pyongyang may further advance its military development if the international community does not find a way to stop it.
In response to the North's ICBM launch, South Korea and the U.S. Air Forces on Thursday conducted large-scale aerial maneuvers as part of the Freedom Flag 2024 exercise. South Korea's F-35A, F-15K, and KF-16 fighter jets equipped with precision-guided weapons, flew in formation with U.S. F-35B and F-16 fighters, as well as the MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle. The previous day, the forces successfully struck targets simulating the enemy's Transporter-Erector-Launcher. The Freedom Flag exercise is a combined, large-force flying exercise between the allies, aimed at boosting defense capabilities and readiness against North Korean threats.
North Korea displayed a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time on 10 October 2020 during the country’s highly-anticipated military parade, held for the 75th anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK). The parade finale featured four of the new ICBM on 11-axle transporter erector launchers (TELs), as well as four of the previously large Hwasong-15. the Hwasong-17, which was mounted on an 11-axle transporter-erector launcher (TEL). This ICBM is larger than previous North Korean missiles, and may even be the world's largest road-mobile liquid-fuelled missile.
The Wanshan WS51200 is a Chinese 16x12 special wheeled chassis. It has been developed by Wanshan Special Vehicle company, using technology from Belarusian Minsk Automobile Plant. Older Wanshan trucks were based on Belarusian designs. This special wheeled chassis has a payload capacity of 80 000 kg. It was specially designed as a road mobile Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) for intercontinental ballistic missiles. A four-door crew cab of this vehicle accommodates driver, co-driver and a launch crew of the missile.
Vehicle is powered by Cummins KTTA19-C700 turbocharged diesel engine, developing 700 hp. It is a commercially available industrial engine. Engine is mounted behind and under the cab. It is mated to a ZF automatic transmission. First 3 axles and last 3 axles are steerable. This feature significantly reduces turning radius of this oversized vehicle. The Wanshan WS51200 special wheeled chassis has some degree of cross-country mobility. Though it is mainly intended to operate on hard surface roads.
In 2011 a total of 8 Wanshan WS51200 vehicles have been exported to North Korea. Officially these have been delivered as a lumber transport in order to overcome UN sanctions, imposed on North Korea. North Koreans locally converted these vehicles into missile launchers by installing hydraulic gear and controls to erect a missile.
In North Korean service the WS51200 trucks are used to carry Hwasong 13 (KN-08) and Hwasong 14 intercontinental ballistic missiles. These are similar in size to the Russian Topol-M road mobile ICBM. A mockup of the Hwasong 13 missile, as well as the Wanshan special wheeled chassis were first publicly revealed in 2012. This missile was first successfully launched by North Koreans in 2017. It seems that the North Korea is the only operator of the Wanshan WS51200 special wheeled chassis. As far as it is known Chinese armed forces do not use this vehicle.
Wanshan WS21200 is a very similar special wheeled chassis, but with 16x16 configuration. It is used by Pakistan and carries Shaheen 3 medium-range ballistic missile.
Wanshan 18x12 special wheeled chassis, based on the WS51200, but with an added non-driving axle and a different cab. It is used by North Korea and carries Hwasong 15 intercontinental ballistic missile. It was first observed in 2017 and was first publicly revealed in 2018 during a military parade.
