4.11 SOCIOECONOMIC RESOURCES
4.11.1 Affected Environment
This section addresses the population, housing, labor force, income, and public finance characteristics in the Pantex Plant region.
Pantex Plant is located in Carson County in the central Panhandle of Texas, 27 kilometers (17 miles) northeast of Amarillo on U.S. Highway 60. The western boundary of the site nearly coincides with the border between Potter and Carson Counties. The Amarillo metropolitan area extends between Potter County and its neighbor to the south, Randall County. A few miles south of Pantex Plant is Armstrong County, which shares its western border with Randall County and its northern border with Carson County. More than 96 percent of the employees at Pantex Plant reside within the rectangle formed by these four counties, and this area is accordingly defined as the Region of Influence (ROI) for this socioeconomic analysis. The area is depicted in Figure 4.11.11.
4.11.1.1 Regional Population
According to the 1990 Census, there were 196,144 persons and 75,067 households in the ROI. More than 95 percent of the persons and households were found in the Amarillo metropolitan area. In 1990, almost four-fifths (79.7 percent) of the ROIs population was White, 13.1 percent was Hispanic, and 4.9 percent was Black. Virtually all of the non-White population in the ROI is concentrated in the Amarillo Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), as shown in Table 4.11.1.11. More detailed information on the racial/ethnic composition of Amarillos population is presented in section 4.17, Environmental Justice.
Outside of the Amarillo urbanized area are several small towns scattered across the ROI. Canyon, with a 1990 population of 11,365, is located south of Amarillo in central Randall County. Panhandle, with a 1990 population of 2,353, is situated approximately 16 kilometers (10 miles) east of Pantex Plant in south-central Carson County. The community of White Deer, with 1,125 persons, is situated northeast of Pantex Plant and the town of Panhandle, in east-central Carson County.
In north-central Armstrong County, southeast of Pantex Plant, is the town of Claude, with a 1990 population count of 1,199. The remainder of the 1990 population in the ROI22,487 persons, or 11.5 percent of the ROIs total populationlived in communities with populations under 1,000 and on farms and ranches found throughout the four-county area. Table 4.11.1.12 presents the racial/ethnic characteristics of the small town and rural populations in the ROI.
The estimated population in the four-county ROI on July 1, 1995 was 209,762, an increase of nearly 13,700 persons from the time of the 1990 Census enumeration in April 1990. Thus, the overall rate of population growth in the ROI during this period was 6.9 percent or 1.4 percent per year (Pantex 1996:8.1).
According to the Texas State Data Center, the projected population in the ROI in 2005 ranges between 214,353 and 246,464, depending on specific economic development scenarios (TSDC 1994). The low-end projection represents a 0.6 percent average annual rate of growth in the ROI during the 15 years following the 1990 census, while the high-end figure represents a 1.7 percent average annual rate of growth in the ROI during this period.
Figure 4.11.1-1.--Pantex Plant, Texas, and Its Socioeconomic Region of Influence.
Table 4.11.1.1-3.--Population Growth by County in Pantex Region of Influence (.pdf)
The Amarillo Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which consists of Potter and Randall Counties, accounted for 96 percent of the ROI population in 1995. Table 4.11.1.13 presents the history of population growth in the ROI and in the MSA during the period 19601995. As shown in this table, the Amarillo MSA experienced a 3.4 percent decline in population between 1960 and 1970. This was largely attributable to the closing of the Amarillo Air Force Base in 1968. Amarillo MSA quickly recovered from this population loss by the mid 1970s. Between 1970 and 1980, it increased its population at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent. The growth rate slowed down to 0.8 percent per year in the 1980s but increased again to 1.4 percent per year during the 1990s (1990-1995).
4.11.1.2 Regional Income and Poverty
In 1989, the median household income in the ROI was $25,763, compared to the median of $27,016 for Texas as a whole. Per capita income in the ROI was $12,639 in 1989, compared to the State-wide per capita income of $12,904. A total of 30,253 persons in the ROI were below the poverty level based on their 1989 incomes, representing 15.4 percent of all persons in the ROI. Over 97 percent of these persons were residents of the Amarillo metropolitan area. Across Texas, 18.1 percent of all persons were below the poverty level based on their incomes in 1989. Table 4.11.1.21 summarizes the information on income and poverty levels in the ROI.
4.11.1.3 Regional Housing
Throughout the four-county area, a total of 84,506 housing units were counted in 1990. Slightly more than 11 percent, or 9,439 of these units were vacant, while just over 75,000 were occupied by an average of 2.56 persons per unit. Nearly 65 percent of the units were owner-occupied dwellings, while the remainder were occupied by renters. Less than 5 percent of the occupied units were overcrowded, with more than one person per room. Less than 1 percent of all housing units in the ROI lacked either complete plumbing or kitchen facilities. Table 4.11.1.31 presents the housing characteristics for the ROI as a whole and the four counties that comprise the ROI.
Table 4.11.1.3-1.--Housing Characteristics by County in the Pantex Plant Region of Influence (.pdf)
4.11.1.4 Regional Labor Force
In 1990, two-thirds of the ROIs population 16 years of age and older, or 97,713 persons, were in the civilian labor force. Of this total, 91,412 were employed, with 71,134 working at least 35 hours per week. Unemployed persons totaled 6,301, or 6.5 percent of the civilian labor force. One-third of the persons in the ROI 16 years of age and older were not in the labor force, i.e., they were neither working nor seeking work. Characteristics of the ROIs labor force are summarized in Table 4.11.1.41.
Slightly more than two-thirds of employed persons in the ROI in 1990 were wage or salaried workers in private for-profit business enterprises. Exactly 15 percent of the employed, or 13,686 persons, were government workers at the local, State, or Federal levels. Slightly more than 9 percent, or 8,373 persons, were self-employed, with 1,091 persons in this group being self-employed in agriculture. Seven percent of employed persons were wage and salaried workers in private non-profit work environments. Table 4.11.1.42 presents information on the various classes of workers in the ROI.
Table 4.11.1.43 shows the distribution of the ROIs employed workforce across the major industrial sectors. One-third of the employed, or 30,623 persons, in the ROI in 1990 worked in the service industry. The next largest group, 23,602, or 25.8 percent of employed persons, worked in the retail or wholesale trade industry. Those employed in manufacturing, which includes the operations at Pantex Plant, numbered 10,441, or 11.4 percent of the employed workforce. The remaining industrial sectors each employed less than 10 percent of the ROIs working population, with agriculture providing work for 2.8 percent of working persons in the four-county area.
Table 4.11.1.4-2.--Class of Workers in the Pantex Plant Region of Influence (.pdf)
Table 4.11.1.4-3.--Employment by Industry and by County in Pantex Plant Region of Influence (.pdf)
Nearly one-third of the ROIs employed persons worked in technical and administrative support occupations in 1990, while just less than one-fourth of the workforce had managerial and professional positions. Approximately 14,000 of the 91,412 employed persons, or 15 percent, had service jobs, while another 12,600, or 14 percent, worked as operators, fabricators or laborers. Precision production, craft and repair jobs were held by another 13 percent of the workforce, and 2,243 persons, or 2.4 percent of the employed, worked in farming occupations. It should be noted that the Bureau of the Census utilizes the broad Farming, Fishing, and Forestry occupational category to classify persons with these types of jobs. However, in the Texas Panhandle, this category includes only farm workers, since there are no fishing or forestry business operations in the area (PC 1995o). As shown in Table 4.11.1.44, at least 96 percent of the employed persons in the ROI lived in the Amarillo MSA, with the exception of those in farming jobs, of whom 79 percent resided in the Amarillo metropolitan area.
Of the persons in the ROI with work experience but who were unemployed in 1990, more than one-fourth, or 1,624, had held technical and administrative support positions. Nearly 1,200, or one out of five experienced unemployed persons, had been operators, fabricators, or laborers. Slightly more than 1,000, or 17 percent, had been precision production, craft, or repair persons, and nearly 600, or 10 percent of the experienced unemployed, had held managerial or professional positions (Table 4.11.1.45).
According to the Texas Employment Commission, the labor force in 1994 in the Amarillo MSA, consisting of Potter and Randall Counties, averaged 107,545 persons. Of this total, 103,116 were employed and 4,429 were unemployed and seeking work. Thus, the average unemployment rate in 1994 for the Amarillo MSA stood at 4.1 percent (TEC 1995).
4.11.1.5 Regional Economy
According to the Census Bureaus report on 1992 business patterns, there were more than 5,300 business establishments in the four-county ROI. Services, retail, and wholesale businesses constituted 70 percent of the establishments in the ROI, employed two-thirds of the employed persons covered in the survey, and accounted for a total annual payroll in excess of $800 million. Construction firms represented 7.8 percent of the businesses in the ROI, but they employed less than 5 percent of the covered workforce, with an annual payroll of $77 million. Nearly 10 percent of area businesses were finance, insurance, and real estate firms, which employed slightly more than 5 percent of the workforce, with a total annual payroll of $86 million.
There were 200 manufacturing establishments in the ROI that comprised less than 4 percent of area businesses yet employed 10,590 people, or 15.5 percent of the covered workforce, with an annual payroll of $281 million. Activities at Pantex Plant were included in the manufacturing category. The 3,800 employees at Pantex Plant constituted 36 percent of the ROIs workforce employed in manufacturing. Table 4.11.1.51 provides more detail about businesses in the ROI.
According to the 1992 Census of Agriculture, farming and ranching contributed nearly $300 million to the economy of the ROI. Nearly 1,300 farms and ranches operated in the four-county area, with an average of 1,560 acres, covering more than 86 percent of the total land area in the four counties (TX Cen 1994:1; TX Cen 1993d:4). Nearly two-thirds of these operations reported cattle and calves in their inventory, with a total of 281,551 cattle and calves counted in the ROI in 1992. The value of the cattle and calves sold by area ranches in 1992 was in excess of $254 million (TX Cen 1994:14). Livestock raised within the four-county ROI includes dairy operations and beef cattle in feedlots and open range. Dairy operations and milk production consist of approximately 3,000 cows that produce up to 64,000 pounds of milk per day.
Table 4.11.1.5-1.--1992 County Business Patterns in the Pantex Plant Region of Influence (.pdf)
The number of beef cattle is difficult to obtain because of inherent characteristics of the industry. The beef cattle industry in the Texas panhandle has the following four distinct aspects:
- Cow-calf operations on open range.
- Grazing of cattle on wheat and native pasture.
- Feedlot operations.
- Slaughter and meat packaging operations.
Each of these aspects is affected by precipitation levels and local and future agricultural meat prices for beef.
One step in beef cattle operations is slaughter and processing. The destination of beef cattle depends on market levels and transportation costs. Large meat processing operations often slaughter and ship carcasses to meat-cutting and meat-packaging operations, possibly in other states. Thus, the possibility that packaged beef is returned to the area of origin is very remote. It is likely that more than 95 percent of the beef cattle processed in large meat operations is distributed and consumed out of state. Conversely, more than 95 percent of the beef cattle processed by small-meat processors is distributed and consumed locally.
The number of cow-calf pairs and beef cows has been compiled by the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service for all Texas counties. As of the January 1, 1994 inventory, Armstrong County had 63,000 cow-calf pairs and 5,000 beef cows. Corresponding numbers for Carson County were 73,000 and 9,000. Potter had 51,000 and 6,000, and Randall had 170,000 and 9,000 (Pantex 1996:10.2).
Crops grown in the ROI during 1992 were sold for a total of $43.8 million (TX Cen 1994:1). Of the four counties, Carson County is an important agricultural county in the State of Texas. In 1993, Carson County was eighth among all Texas counties for production of wheat and grain sorghum, and was 28th for production of corn (Pantex 1996:10.1).
Since 1950, shortly before the nuclear weapons activities at Pantex Plant began, the value of crops grown and sold in the ROI has increased by 151 percent, relative to the 142 percent increase in the Producer Price Index for Crude Foodstuffs and Feedstuffs during this period. Cattle and calf sales in the ROI have increased by 2,007 percent since 1950, relative to a 153-percent increase in the Producer Price Index for Slaughter Livestock during this period. Details of the growth of the agriculture industry in the ROI are presented in Table 4.11.1.52.
Corn and sorghum grown for grain or seed and wheat grown for grain are the major cash crops of the four-county ROI. The number of bushels of each of the crops harvested in 1992 is depicted in Table 4.11.1.53. Corn production is significantly less than sorgham or wheat because extensive irrigation is needed for corn maturation. About half of the crops grown in the local area are strictly dryland because of the high cost of pumping water from the Ogallala aquifer (Pantex 1996:10.2).
Table 4.11.1.5-2.--Characteristics of Farms in the Pantex Plant Region of Influence (.pdf)
Table 4.11.1.5-3--1992 Crop Production in the Pantex Plant Region of Influence (.pdf)
In addition to agriculture, the economic activity in the ROI has historically depended on mining (oil and gas). Growth in manufacturing, distribution, food processing, and medical services has provided further diversification to the economy. In the 1960s, Amarillo Air Force Base, with a direct employment of approximately 4,000 military and civilian employees, was a dominant force in the Amarillo economy. With the closing of the Base in 1968, approximately 9,000 persons left the Amarillo area within a two-year period. The City of Amarillo, however, took immediate action to recover the airport portion of the airfield for civilian aviation and initiated plans for the development of the airport.
In February 1968, Bell Helicopter started operating a military helicopter modification and repair facility on part of the Air Force Base land. The non-airport land was acquired by the State of Texas for use as a technical vocational training site by the Texas State Technical Institute. The air carrier terminal building was completed in 1971 and the City was well on its way to recovery from the population loss resulting from the Air Force Base closure. In the 1970s, Amarillo maintained a healthy economy providing major medical, financial, professional, governmental, transportation, and retail services to the entire Texas Panhandle and beyond (City 1989; Cress 1980).
The 1980s saw two major events which had a substantial impact on Amarillo area economy. In 1986, the Department of Energy announced that a 60-acre site in Deaf Smith County, adjacent to the Amarillo MSA, would be tested as one of the three potential sites for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste in geologic repositories. Activities at the Deaf Smith site in 1987, employed approximately 300 engineers and scientists (AGT 1986). In December 1987, the Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one site, the Yucca Mountain Site in Nevada, as a candidate for the first repository (DOE 1988a). This resulted in the closure of activities in Deaf Smith County with a loss of 300 direct jobs, mainly in the Amarillo metropolitan area. In 1989, Bell Helicopter announced it was closing the Amarillo facility. It eventually closed in March 1990 with a loss of 350 jobs. At its peak in early 1980s, Bell Helicopter employed between 800 and 1,000 workers (PC 1996t).
The U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, has been operating a Helium Plant in Amarillo area since the early 1940s. The facility presently employs approximately 175 workers. The U.S. Congress is currently considering downsizing or eventually closing the plant. The U.S. House of Representatives voted in May 1996 to downsize the plant. However, the U.S. Senate has not voted on it yet. If downsizing were to occur, the employment at the Helium Plant would be reduced to about 30 to 40 workers within 18 months of the decision (PC 1996s).
In spite of the employment and population loss represented by the activities described above, the decennial population growth presented in Table 4.11.1.13 clearly demonstrates that the Amarillo metropolitan area economy has remained vibrant. Because of the visionary approach of the local leaders in diversifying the economy of the metropolitan area, Amarillo has withstood adversities in the past and has remained the center of finance and business for the Texas Panhandle.
4.11.1.6 Public Finance
The local governments most likely to be affected by the Proposed Action are the City of Amarillo and the counties of Armstrong, Carson, Potter, and Randall. Tables 4.11.1.61 and 4.11.1.62 present the 1994 revenues and expenditures for these units of government, subdivided by major revenue and expenditure categories. Income from taxes constitutes the major single source of funding for each of the governmental units, ranging from 35 percent of Armstrong Countys 1994 total revenue to 66 percent of Potter Countys 1994 total revenue.
The City of Amarillo received 63 percent of its 1994 revenue from taxes. The City also obtained 15 percent of its 1994 income from licenses, fees, and charges for services such as solid waste collection and auditorium and coliseum rentals. Most of local government spending is for roads, bridges, and law enforcement. Expenditures for 1994 were below total revenues, except for Carson County, which had a deficit of less than $1,000.
The long-term outstanding debts of the various local governments at the end of their 1994 budget year are shown in Table 4.11.1.63. Each of the governments has a schedule for the elimination of its long-term debt. (County 1994d; County 1994a; County 1994b; County 1994c; City 1994).
4.11.1.7 Pantex Plant Workforce
As of January 1995, approximately 3,530 persons were employed at Pantex Plant. Of this total, 3,310 were Mason & Hanger-Silas Mason Company, Inc. and Battelle Memorial Institute employees, 75 were DOE Amarillo Area Office employees, 130 were DOE Transportation Safeguards Division employees, and 15 were Sandia and other National Laboratories employees. In addition to the 3,530 plant employees, approximately 250 employees associated with consultants, subcontractors, and oversight agencies worked at the plant site for a total of 3,780 employees onsite in early 1995. Including outside consultants, subcontractors, and oversight agencies, a total of 3,800 employees are expected onsite (DOE 1995j). This is equivalent to 3.7 percent of the total employment of 103,116 workers in the Pantex Plant ROI in 1994 (TEC 1995).
Table 4.11.1.6-1.--Revenues of Governing Bodies Within the Pantex Plant Region of Influence (.pdf)
Table 4.11.1.6-3.--Long-Term Outstanding Debts at End of 1994 Budget Year (.pdf)
4.11.2 Impacts of Proposed Action
4.11.2.1 Impacts of Continued Operations
Analysis of socioeconomic effects utilizes total output, employment, and earnings multipliers for the Pantex Plant ROI from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Input-Output Modeling System. The current employment of 3,800 direct (onsite) workers is considered to be sufficient for the continuation of operations at the 2,000 weapons activity level per year. The results from the Input-Output Modeling System indicate that, as a result of this level of operations, a total of 6,257 secondary jobs would be created throughout the ROI from regional spending by direct workers as well as from procurement of equipment, materials, and supplies by Pantex Plant. Most of the secondary jobs in the local economy are in the retail trade and service sectors, resulting from the first-round spending by direct workers and secondary impacts induced from business activity dispersed throughout the ROI economy.
Aggregated annual earnings (salary and wages paid to employees) for direct employees total $222 million in 1994 dollars (PC 1995v). An additional $176 million (in 1994 dollars) of earnings is generated annually through secondary employment in the ROI. Thus, total annual earnings in the ROI as a result of this level of continued Pantex Plant operations is estimated at approximately $398 million. Total personal income (income received by persons from all sources including wages, interest, dividends, and other transfer payments) generated by Pantex Plant operations at the 2,000 weapons activity level adds approximately $564 million (in 1994 dollars) to the ROI economy each year.
If Pantex Plant operations are reduced to the 1,000 weapons activity level per year, direct employment would decrease to approximately 3,000 workers. This would result in a decrease of secondary jobs in the ROI to 4,925. The combined (direct and secondary) decrease of 2,132 workers from the 2,000 weapons activity level could increase the unemployment rate in the ROI from 4.1 percent to approximately 6.0 percent. Aggregated annual earnings would total $175 million for direct employees (in 1994 dollars) and $138 million for secondary workers in the ROI. The total annual earnings and personal income in the ROI would be reduced to approximately $314 million and $445 million, respectively, as a result of reduction in activity level to 1,000 weapons operations per year. This would amount to approximately 79 percent of the earnings and personal income generated by the 2,000 weapons activity level.
If Pantex Plant operations are reduced to the 500 weapons activity level per year, employment would decrease to about 2,400 direct workers, and secondary jobs throughout the ROI would decrease to about 3,950. The combined reduction of 3,715 direct and secondary jobs from the 2,000 weapons activity level would increase the unemployment rate in the ROI from 4.1 percent to approximately 6.2 percent. This could trigger some out-migration of workers from the ROI. Aggregated annual earnings would total $140 million (in 1994 dollars) for direct employees and $111 million for secondary workers in the ROI. The total annual earnings and personal income in the ROI would be reduced to $251 million and $356 million, respectively, as a result of reducing Pantex Plant operations to the 500 weapons activity level. This would amount to approximately 63 percent of the earnings and personal income generated by the 2,000 weapons activity level.
Dr. Perrymans analysis reported in Amarillo Economic Development Corporation release dated August 3, 1993 and an undated press release by Perryman Consultants "Analysis Shows Pantex Plant Adds a Billion in Revenues and Thousands of Jobs to Amarillo Economy," have provided different projections for changes in Pantex related jobs. Dr. Perryman, in one place, mentions that Pantex Plant employs 3,100 persons and estimates that the total employment resulting from Pantex Plant operations is 11,688, thus implying a total job multiplier of 3.77 and a ratio of 2.77 indirect jobs for each direct job.
In the same article, however, Dr. Perryman states that Pantex Plant expansion by 2,400 jobs would result in 5,312 total additional jobs. This implies a total job multiplier of 2.21 (Perryman 1993). Although DOE believes that a total job multiplier of 2.65 is more realistic, this alternative perspective has been provided in the interest of full disclosure of differing viewpoints.
Assuming that all 1,400 direct workers and 50 percent of the 2,315 indirect workers (1158 workers) and their families decide to leave the Pantex ROI in search of jobs elsewhere, the maximum decrease in population would amount to 5,756 persons (2,558 workers x 2.25 persons per household = 5,756 persons). This would represent a loss of 2.7 percent of the total ROI population of 209,762 in 1995. It should be noted that if this reduction takes place it would not occur instantaneously. Most people do not leave town soon after the loss of a job.
More importantly, the reduction of jobs at Pantex would not be abrupt or instantaneous. Work would be phased out over several years. Even when the weapons activity level is being reduced to 500 weapons per year, work relating to decontamination and decommissioning of facilities would employ many of the same people performing other activities at Pantex Plant. While there is reduction of employment in one activity at the plant, there would be a simultaneous increase in another activity. Therefore, the outmigration of unemployed workers is not likely to be as large as 2,558 as shown above.
The reduction of ROI population by 5,756 persons would impact the tax revenues of the local governments under whose jurisdiction Pantex-related employees (both direct and indirect employees) live. Property values would also be temporarily reduced. For making a quantitative assessment of the loss of tax revenues, the following assumptions are made to identify the maximum impacts:
- All 2,558 worker households live in the City of Amarillo (since City of Amarillo has the highest per capita tax rate in the ROI, tax revenues would be maximally impacted with this assumption).
- All workers and their families leave the city within one year (this would have the maximum impact on property value and property taxes).
Applying the 1994 per capita tax rate of $457 in Amarillo to the 5,756 persons leaving town, the reduction in tax revenue can be estimated at $2.8 million or 3.6 percent of the total tax revenues of $72.1 million in Amarillo. Since many of the Pantex employees live in other parts of the ROI where tax rates are generally lower than the City of Amarillo and because all workers would not leave town within a year, the annual losses in tax revenues in the ROI would be substantially smaller than presented above. Moreover, while it is acknowledged that the property values would decline, it is inconceivable that they would go down to zero, which is what the reduction of $2,630,492 in tax revenue represents.
In summary, the impacts of reduction in jobs with a reduction in weapons activity level to 500 weapons per year is not likely to have a significant impact on population, property values, or tax revenues of local governments. A temporary decline in population and tax revenues could possibly lead to reduced income for charitable organizations that rely on contributions of the employees at the plant and elsewhere in the community at a time when their services may be needed by more people who lose their jobs due to downsizing.
Impacts of Pit Storage ActivitiesOnly 30 employees are directly involved in pit storage activity at Pantex Plant. Since they are part of the total employment of 3,800 workers at Pantex Plant, the socioeconomic effects are included in the foregoing discussion of continued operations.
Impacts of environmental restoration (ER)Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Activities
Personnel required for the environmental management and waste management activities are included in the workforce numbers presented in the foregoing discussion of continued operations. Thus, there are no significant additional socioeconomic impacts associated with the environmental management activities.
4.11.2.2 Impacts of New Facility Construction and Upgrade
Hazardous Waste Treatment and Processing Facility (HWTPF)
During the peak year of its construction, the Hazardous Waste Treatment and Processing Facility would generate approximately 129 construction jobs. After construction is completed, 20 workers would be needed to operate the facility. Of these workers, 15 are already employed at the plant; only 5 new persons would be added when operations start. With the creation of 129 construction jobs in the peak year, an additional 211 secondary jobs would be created in the ROI, bringing the total jobs to 340. Additional earnings in the ROI, during the peak construction year of this facility, are estimated at $2.76 million. Additional personal income in the ROI is estimated at $3.91 million. After the construction is completed, operations at this facility would not add significantly to the socioeconomic effects described for the continued operations at Pantex Plant.
Pit Reuse FacilityDuring the peak year of its construction, the Pit Reuse Facility would generate about 50 construction jobs. After construction is completed, 7 workers would be needed annually for ongoing operations. During the peak construction year, 82 secondary jobs would be created in the ROI as a result of the construction of this project, bringing the total to 132 jobs in the peak year. Additional earnings in the ROI during the peak construction year are estimated at $4.54 million and additional personal income at $6.44 million. After the construction is completed, only 7 workers would be needed to operate the facility. This would not add significantly to the existing workforce of 3,800 employees at Pantex Plant. Socioeconomic impacts of this facility are, therefore, considered negligible, except for the short-term beneficial impacts during the construction phase.
Gas Analysis Laboratory (GAL)During the peak year of its construction, the Gas Analysis Laboratory would generate approximately 60 construction jobs. An additional 101 jobs would be created in the ROI as a result of the facility construction, bringing the total jobs to 161 in the peak construction year. Additional earnings in the ROI during the peak construction year are estimated at $5.14 million and additional personal income at $7.22 million. After construction is completed, 20 workers would be needed to operate the new facility. These workers would be transferred from the existing facilities at the plant and would not generate additional socioeconomic impacts.
Materials Compatibility Assurance Facility (MCAF)
During the peak year of its construction, the Materials Compatibility Assurance Facility would generate about 104 construction jobs (PC 1995g:Table 1). An additional 172 secondary jobs would be created in the ROI as a result of the facility construction, bringing the total jobs to 276. Additional earnings in the ROI during the peak year of construction are estimated at $3.20 million and additional personal income at $4.55 million. After the construction is completed, 40 workers would be needed to operate the new facility. These workers would be transferred from existing facilities at the plant and would not generate additional socioeconomic impacts.
Nondestructive Evaluation Facility
During the peak year of construction, the Nondestructive Evaluation Facility would generate about 224 construction jobs. An additional 370 secondary jobs would be created in the ROI as a result of the facility construction, bringing the total jobs to 594 in the peak construction year. Additional earnings in the ROI during the peak construction year are estimated at $18.83 million and additional personal income at $26.71 million. After construction is completed, 42 workers would be needed to operate this facility. These workers would be transferred from the existing facilities at the plant and would not generate additional socioeconomic impacts.
Metrology and Health Physics Calibration and Acceptance Facility
During the peak year of its construction, the Metrology and Health Physics Calibration and Acceptance Facility would generate an estimated 60 construction jobs. An additional 99 secondary jobs would be created in the ROI as a result of the facility construction, bringing the total jobs to 159 in the peak construction year. Additional earnings in the ROI during the peak year of construction are estimated at $5.04 million and additional personal income at $7.15 million. After construction is completed, 48 workers would be needed to operate the new facility. These workers would be transferred from existing facilities at the plant and would not generate additional socioeconomic impacts.
4.11.2.3 Summary of Impacts
At the 2,000 weapons per year level, a total of 10,057 jobs would be generated in the ROI as a result of the activities at Pantex Plant Site. With weapons level reduced to 1,000 or 500 weapons per year, the employment at Pantex Plant would be reduced by 2,132 workers or 3,714 workers, respectively. Corresponding decreases in earnings and personal income would also occur as described in section 4.11.2.1. Construction and associated secondary jobs generated by the new projects in the peak construction year are estimated at 1,227 workers. This amounts to an increase of approximately 12 percent over the plants permanent workforce.
However, this increase would provide only short-term benefits to the local economy. Because almost all construction workers can be locally hired, the benefits would generally accrue to the ROI population. Earnings in the ROI would temporarily increase to $437 million from $398 million generated by the continued operations at the 2,000 weapons activity level. Personal income would correspondingly increase from $564 million to $620 million. After the construction phase, the socioeconomic impacts would remain as described for the continued operations.
For the 1,000 and 500 weapons levels, the increase in employment, earnings, and personal income associated with new projects would be the same as described for the 2,000 weapons level scenario.
4.11.3 Impacts of the No Action Alternative
Under the No Action Alternative, the disassembly of weapons would cease when the pit storage at Pantex Plant reaches 12,000 pits. However, for purposes of analysis, it is assumed that the weapons levels would remain at 2,000, 1,000, and 500 as described under the Proposed Action. The activities associated with the disassembly would cease but would be substituted by an increase in activities associated with the assembly, modification, and surveillance of weapons to meet the stockpile requirements. With such a substitution, the workforce requirements at the plant and the expenditures that the plant would incur in Pantex Plant ROI would remain at the levels described under the Proposed Action. Therefore, socioeconomic impacts of the No Action Alternative would be similar to those described for the Proposed Action, with the exception that the impacts generated by the new projects planned under the Proposed Action would not occur.
4.11.4 Impacts of Pit Storage Relocation Alternative
4.11.4.1 Impacts of Relocating 20,000 Pits
Under this scenario, the activities at Pantex Plant would be similar to those described under the Proposed Action with 2,000 weapons per year activity level because the plant would continue to dismantle weapons until disassembly of 20,000 weapons is accomplished. The activities related to interim pit storage in Zone 4 of Pantex Plant would remain until pits are shipped to other site(s). As a result, the socioeconomic impacts of this Pit Relocation Alternative would be similar to those identified for the Proposed Action with 2,000 weapons per year activity level.
4.11.4.2 Impacts of Relocating 8,000 Pits
Even if only 8,000 pits are relocated to the other site(s), the assumption remains that Pantex Plant would continue to store 12,000 pits and weapons disassembly would continue until 20,000 weapons are disassembled. Socioeconomic impacts of this alternative scenario would, therefore, be similar to those identified for the Proposed Action with 2,000 weapons per year activity level.
4.11.5 Cumulative Impacts
The cumulative impacts presented here include impacts of the continued operations at Pantex Plant combined with impacts associated with activities described in the WM PEIS, SSM PEIS, and S&D PEIS. Since the Pantex Plant EIS Proposed Action and the SSM PEIS No Action Alternative represent a continuum of operations, the impacts associated with any new mission or facility that could be implemented at Pantex Plant are discussed in the context of that continuum. The impacts from the WM PEIS program are combined with those of the Pantex Plant EIS Proposed Action. The impacts from the S&D PEIS are combined with those of the SSM PEIS No Action Alternative. A detailed discussion of this methodology is presented in section 4.2. In addition, the cumulative impacts include impacts from the closure of the U.S. Department of Interior Helium Plant.
4.11.5.1 Impacts of Alternatives in the Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement
The location oftritium supply and recycling facilities waste management facilities at Pantex Plant could increase employment at Pantex Plant by an additional 654 workers as projected in the WM PEIS. It should, however, be noted that the WM PEIS is projecting employment for both treatment and disposal facilities. The Proposed Action in this EIS already includes the construction and operation of a hazardous waste treatment and processing facility. The remaining disposal facility, if developed at Pantex Plant, would not generate the entire workforce as projected in the WM PEIS, and the cumulative impacts would more likely be lower than described above.
4.11.5.2 Impacts of Alternatives in the Stockpile Stewardship and Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement
The SSM PEIS includes three alternatives that apply to Pantex Plant: No Action, Downsize Existing Capability, and Relocate Capability. Under the No Action Alternative, no downsizing or modification of facilities would occur. Due to the reduced workload expected in the future, the most significant change at Pantex Plant would involve the number of workers associated with the assembly and disassembly mission, which would be expected to decrease from approximately 2,365 to approximately 915 for one-shift operations. The number of direct workers associated with high explosive(s) (HE)HE fabrication would decrease from 365 to approximately 105.
Under the downsizing alternative, assembly and disassembly operations at Pantex Plant would proceed more efficiently and require approximately 800 workers for one-shift operations, 115 workers less than under the No Action Alternative. For three-shift operations, the bounding-case, approximately 1,266 workers would be required. All construction activities would be modifications to existing facilities. Consequently, socioeconomic impacts from the construction would be minimal.
Under the relocation alternative, approximately 1,644 direct and 1,905 indirect jobs would be lost in the regional economic area. The loss of approximately 3,549 total jobs would cause the regional economic area unemployment rate to increase from 4.8 to 6.2 percent. Housing and rental vacancies and public finance expenditures and revenue would change by less than 1 percent.
4.11.5.3 Impacts of Alternatives in the Storage and Disposition of Weapons-Usable Fissile Materials Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement
The S&D PEIS is considering Pantex Plant for long-term storage of inventories of nonsurplus weapons-usable plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU), storage of inventories of surplus weapons-usable plutonium and HEU pending disposition, and disposition of surplus weapons-usable plutonium. For storage, the strategy for long-term storage of weapons-usable plutonium and HEU, as well as the storage site(s), would be decided. The storage alternatives include upgrading the existing plutonium storage facilities, consolidation of plutonium from other sites, and collocation of plutonium and HEU storage. The Collocation Alternative is used for analysis purposes in this EIS as the bounding storage alternative.
Under the S&D PEIS Collocation Alternative, construction of new storage facilities would be required in order to store plutonium and HEU at Pantex Plant. Construction and operation of new storage facilities would require 1,524 and 676 workers, respectively.
For the disposition alternatives in the S&D PEIS, the emphasis at this stage in the NEPA decision process is on choosing the strategy and technology mix rather than the actual site. The evolutionary Light Water Reactor is used for analysis purposes in this EIS as the bounding disposition alternative. Implementation of this disposition alternative would require the construction and operation of a pit disassembly and conversion facility, plutonium conversion facility, mixed oxide fuel fabrication facility, and one or more light water reactors. The bounding alternative also assumes that all of the facilities previously mentioned would be collocated at the same site (potentially Pantex Plant).
The Pantex EIS Proposed Action with 2,000 weapons activity level per year combined with the bounding disposition alternative at Pantex Plant could increase employment at Pantex Plant from its current 3,800 workers to 10,220 workers if the workforce increase of 1,298 workers and 5,122 workers (125 pit disassembly and conversion, 1,022 workers plutonium conversion facility, 475 workers mixed oxide facility, and 3,500 workers evolutionary Light Water Reactor) projected in the S&D PEIS, respectively, are fully realized.
It should be noted that preconstruction activities for disposition would require about 5 years to perform the tiered NEPA analyses and to obtain necessary permits and designs. About another 5 years would be required for construction, startup, preoperational testing, and operational readiness review. Construction of completely new reactors could take longer (DOE 1996a:4.0). By the time these facilities become operational, the workforce associated with the assembly/disassembly functions would be reduced to approximately 800 to 1,266 workers as shown in the SSM PEIS. Hence, the total workforce is not likely to reach the 10,220 worker level as shown above for the bounding case.
4.11.5.4 Impacts from Other Potential Actions
Information on other Federal, State, or local projects including private developments was sought through contacts with Federal and State regulatory agencies, the Amarillo Economic Development Corporation, the Panhandle Municipal Water Authority, and the City of Amarillo. This effort yielded only one project (downsizing or closure of the Helium Plant) that would contribute to the cumulative impacts in the Pantex Plant ROI.
The U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, has been operating a Helium Plant in the Amarillo area since the early 1940s. The facility presently employs approximately 175 workers. On October 9, 1996, the President signed the Helium Privatization Act of 1996, directing helium operations to discontinue production and sale of refined helium by no later than 18 months from the date of enactment (i.e., by April 1998).
The employment at the Helium Plant will be reduced to about 30 to 40 workers within 18 months. Reduction in employment and population at the Helium Plant will occur well before assembly and disassembly activities at Pantex Plant result in the downsizing of the Pantex Plant workforce. Nevertheless, the ROI will experience the cumulative effects of downsizing the Pantex Plant and Helium Plant operations.
4.11.6 Potential Mitigation Measures
Since the socioeconomic impacts of the continued operations of Pantex Plant are beneficial to the regional economy, no mitigation measures are needed.
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