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4.3 SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS

This section describes the existing socioeconomic characteristics of LLNL and SNL, Livermore and the surrounding areas, focusing primarily on Alameda and San Joaquin counties.

4.3.1 Employment

Employment characteristics of the communities in the region surrounding the LLNL Livermore site, LLNL Site 300, and SNL, Livermore are presented in this section by relevant county and city. Specific labor force information about the Laboratories is integrated into this discussion and is summarized at the end of section 4.3.1.

Alameda County

The California Employment Development Department reported a 1989 total employed labor force of 662,800 persons in Alameda County. This represented a 4 percent increase over the 1988 annual average of 636,800. The average annual unemployment rate for the year was 4.2 percent (29,200 persons), which was lower than the statewide average of 5.1 percent for the same year (California Employment Development Department, 1990a).

During the 1980s, Alameda County's employment mix began to shift away from heavy industries, which were either in decline or stagnant, and toward office- and service-related industries, which have a long-term potential for high-technology job growth. Employment opportunities created by this shift helped to invigorate the county economy and increase population growth (Association of Bay Area Governments, 1989). This trend would likely continue. The Association of Bay Area Governments has projected a 31 percent increase in the number of jobs available in the Livermore-Amador Valley area and an attendant 46 percent increase in population by the year 2005. The cities of Livermore and Pleasanton are expected to add approximately 46,000 jobs during this time, and the total employed labor force in the county is projected to increase 13.5 percent over the 10-year period from 1990 to 2000 (Association of Bay Area Governments, 1989).

San Joaquin County

The California Employment Development Department reported a 1989 total employed labor force of 181,000 persons in San Joaquin County (California Employment Development Department, 1990b). This represented a 1.3 percent increase over the 1988 annual average of 178,600. The average 1989 unemployment rate was 9.4 percent (18,000 persons), which is substantially higher than the state average for that year (5.1 percent). However, the county unemployment rate had declined from the 1988 level of 9.7 percent. The California Employment Development Department has projected a continued increase in employment, with an additional 17,200 jobs expected by 1993 (California Employment Development Department, 1990b). See Table 4.3-1 for employment characteristics of selected cities.

LLNL and SNL, Livermore

While they are distinct operations managed and operated by different contractors, for purposes of this discussion the LLNL Livermore site and SNL, Livermore are addressed together because of their proximity.

As of September 1991, approximately 11,400 persons worked at LLNL (11,200 at LLNL and 200 at LLNL Site 300). Of this total, approximately 3,876 of these workers are DOE personnel and contractors.

Approximately 1500 persons work onsite at SNL, Livermore. Of this total, approximately 450 are contractors.

Table 4.3-1 Employment Characteristics of Selected Cities

* Projection for year 2010.
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, 1989; Williams, 1991a.

4.3.2 Population

The majority of LLNL and SNL, Livermore personnel reside in the Livermore-Amador Valley area. Approximately 5395 LLNL and SNL, Livermore workers reside in the City of Livermore in Alameda County. This is the largest number of LLNL and SNL, Livermore personnel residing in any city in the area. The next largest number, 1090, reside in the City of Pleasanton. In San Joaquin County, the City of Tracy is the residence of approximately 925 LLNL and SNL, Livermore personnel, and the City of Manteca is the residence of an estimated 653 LLNL and SNL, Livermore personnel. See Table 4.3-2 for the geographic distribution of the workforce (LLNL, 1991e; SNL, Livermore, 1991g).

Alameda County

The 1990 population of Alameda County was 1,279,182 (U.S. Census Bureau, 1991). Of that total, 130,523 people lived within the communities of Livermore, Pleasanton, and Dublin. During the 5-year period from 1985 through 1990, the population increased 8.3 percent. The population for the county is anticipated to grow 8.5 percent (to 1,387,900) over the 10-year period from 1990 through 2000 (Association of Bay Area Governments, 1989). The Livermore-Amador Valley area, which includes the communities of Dublin, Livermore, and Pleasanton, is expected to grow by approximately 65,000 new residents over the 15-year period from 1990 through 2005. This growth would primarily be the result of increased economic development and employment opportunities within the county during the 1980s. This trend is projected to continue; however, infrastructure limitations, particularly sewerage capacity, may constrain growth in the Livermore-Amador Valley area during the early 1990s (Association of Bay Area Governments, 1989).

San Joaquin County

The 1990 population of San Joaquin County was reported to be 480,628 persons (U.S. Census Bureau, 1991). The county experienced an 18.6 percent increase in population over the 5-year period from 1985 through 1990. The population is anticipated to increase 47.7 percent over the 20-year period from 1990 through 2010 (Williams, 1991a). This anticipated increase is directly related to the increased employment opportunities in the eastern portion of Alameda County. Residential development and subsequent population increases in the southern part of San Joaquin County are anticipated since commute times from San Joaquin County to Alameda County are similar to other Bay Area commute times; housing is less expensive and land is more readily available in San Joaquin County than in Alameda County (County of San Joaquin, 1987). See Table 4.3-3 for population figures of selected cities.

LLNL Livermore Site and LLNL Site 300

Currently, approximately 7026 LLNL personnel (including temporary, LLNL Site 300, and contract employees) live within the cities of Livermore, Pleasanton, Tracy, and Manteca (LLNL, 1991e). The remaining 4374 personnel are distributed relatively uniformly throughout the Bay Area and the Central Valley (Figure 4.3-1).

SNL, Livermore

Currently, 1037 SNL, Livermore personnel (including temporary and contractor employees) live within the cities of Livermore, Pleasanton, Tracy, and Manteca (SNL, Livermore, 1991g). The remaining 463 personnel are distributed relatively uniformly throughout the Bay Area and the Central Valley.

Table 4.3-2 Geographic Distribution of LLNL and SNL, Livermore Personnela

^a Includes LLNL and SNL, Livermore contractors, but not DOE personnel and DOE contractors stationed at sites.
^b Based on percent distribution as of September 1991.
^c Based on percent distribution as of March 27, 1991.
^d Percentages may not total 100 because figures are rounded off.
Source: LLNL, 1991e; SNL, Livermore, 1991g.

4.3.3 Housing

Alameda County

The Alameda County housing stock totaled 506,449 units as of January 1990 (California Department of Finance, 1990a). The 1990 vacancy rate in the county was 2.3 percent, indicating a low percentage of available housing (California Department of Finance, 1990a). The total number of housing units in the county increased 8.2 percent between 1985 and 1990 (California Department of Finance, 1985a, 1990a). The overall county rate of housing growth is fairly moderate; however, this figure is not indicative of the higher subregional rate of housing growth in the eastern portion of the county (Livermore-Amador Valley area). The high rate of housing growth in the cities of Livermore, Dublin, and Pleasanton, in comparison to Alameda County, is the result of job growth in the Livermore-Amador Valley area, the availability of land, and a perceived favorable quality of life.

San Joaquin County

The number of housing units within San Joaquin County totaled 168,306 as of January 1990 (California Department of Finance, 1990b). The total number of units increased by 11.1 percent over the 5-year period from 1985 through 1990 (California Department of Finance, 1985b, 1990b). The county's vacancy rate for 1990 was 6.22 percent, representing a relatively high rate of vacancy compared to other counties in the Bay Area (California Department of Finance, 1990b). Please see Table 4.3-4 for housing information on selected cities.

Table 4.3-3 Population of Selected Cities

* Projection for year 2010.
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, 1989; Williams, 1991b.

4.3.4 Economic Factors

Alameda County had a total of 31,288 business establishments in 1988, with a combined annual payroll of $10.5 billion (including LLNL and SNL, Livermore). Agricultural production represented a major source of revenue, with a $56 million total value of crops produced for 1988 (Association of Bay Area Governments, 1990).

A total of 8358 business establishments were located in San Joaquin County in 1988, the most recent year for which data are available (U.S. Census Bureau, 1988). Payroll for these companies totaled $2 billion in this same year. Agricultural production represented a major source of revenue in the county, with a total market value of agricultural products sold of $633 million in the year 1987 (most recent data available) (MacRae, 1991).

LLNL Livermore Site and LLNL Site 300

The LLNL Livermore site and LLNL Site 300 have a combined monthly payroll of approximately $36 million. LLNL payroll originates entirely from the LLNL Livermore site in Alameda County, even though some personnel are located at LLNL Site 300 in San Joaquin County. Sixty-two percent of that payroll, or $22 million, is received by workers living in the cities of Livermore, Pleasanton, Tracy, and Manteca. As of 1990, the total annual LLNL payroll was approximately $432 million, representing 4 percent of the total combined 1988 payroll generated by all business establishments in Alameda County.

LLNL contributes considerably to the economy in direct purchases; it purchased a total of $466.9 million in goods and services in fiscal year 1990. Of that total, $273.5 million was purchased in California and $115.4 million was purchased in the Livermore Valley.

SNL, Livermore

SNL, Livermore had an annual payroll of $51.6 million as of 1990. The current annual payroll represents approximately 0.5 percent of the total combined 1988 payroll generated by all business establishments in Alameda County. In 1990, SNL, Livermore purchased $91.8 million in goods and services in California, of which $77.3 million was spent in the Bay Area (SNL, Livermore, 1990e).

Economic Influence of LLNL and SNL, Livermore

While they are distinct operations managed and operated by different contractors, for purposes of this discussion, the LLNL Livermore site and SNL, Livermore are addressed together because of their proximity.

The analysis of the economic influence of the LLNL and SNL, Livermore facilities on the regional economy is based on an income multiplier of 1.59 (State of California, 1982). For every one dollar spent in the region, an additional 59 cents would be generated. Using this multiplier, the total annual payroll of LLNL ($432 million) is calculated to generate an additional $254 million in the regional economy; and SNL, Livermore's payroll ($51.6 million) is calculated to generate an additional $30 million, assuming all payroll is spent within the regional economy. The total annual direct and indirect expenditures generated by LLNL and SNL, Livermore is calculated to be $767.6 million.

While the majority of the work force lives within Alameda and San Joaquin counties, not all of the payroll would be directly infused into the local economy, as some goods and services are imported into the area and some people travel and spend income outside their counties of residence. The degree to which people spend outside their places of residence depends on the diversity of the local economy. However, the relatively large amount of money generated as a result of LLNL and SNL, Livermore operations, and the presence of a full variety of urban services in both Alameda and San Joaquin counties, suggest that a substantial amount of expenditure would remain in the local and regional economies.

Table 4.3-4 Housing Stock of Selected Cities

^a Projection for year 2000.
^b Projection for year 1995.
^c Projection for year 1994.
Source: California Department of Finance, 1990a, 1990b; City of Livermore, 1985; City of Dublin, 1990; City of Pleasanton, 1990; Conant, 1991.