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Shenzhou-7

China’s Third Manned Spaceflight

Key to the Future Planning

© By Charles P. Vick (All Rights Reserved)

Senior Analyst, Globalsecurity.org

09-21-29/10-07-2008

Disclaimer The opinions and evaluations stated here in are only the authors and cannot be construed to reflect those of any government agency, company, institute or association. It is based on public information, circumstantial evidence, informed speculation, and official PRC Chinese government. As with all data regarding the Chinese space programs, this analysis is subject to revision--and represents a work in progress. It reflects the total open source analysis process and previous studies using the same information analysis process.

The Next Mission during This Five Year Plan / 2011 Start Next F.Y.P.

So this shortened Shenzhou-7 flight with its primary EVA, multi-man crew mission demonstration is all a prelude of mission and future capability to come that must first be successfully accomplished before moving on to bigger and better earth orbital rendezvous operations as presently planned.

This is before going to the next planned phase two goal spacecraft docking mission with the unmanned automatic docking of the all up Tiangong 1 space laboratory module , & unmanned Shenzhou-8 missions to create the initial rudimentary space laboratory station called Tiangong-1 (several of which could be launched over the next five year plan), that will be crewed by the manned Shenzhou-9 & Shenzhou-10 missions if the docking of the unmanned Tiangong 1 , and Shenzhou-8 is successful. Several of the Tiangong modules of approximately 8 ton (7,800 kgs) which are believed to be lengthened orbital modules with a front and possibly a rear docking port are expected to be heavier modules with no descent module attached but perhaps will be launched with unmanned Shenzhou instrument propulsion module as a station module. This will accelerate the manned space platform program to phase three. This rudimentary manned space platform will be made up primarily from the derivation Shenzhou “ Tiangong 1” module and the docked Shenzhou-8, 9, & 10 spacecraft orbital modules which are independent spacecraft in their own right. Where the second docking port is clearly the key to understanding their planning. This would portend the possibility of a yet to be proven Chinese capability to replace the stations instrument propulsion module as required.

Clearly something has been lost in all the speculation going around that has not looked at this realistically. Several major things give the answers along with one other realization. That is that the Chinese PRC manned space programs are a stretched out under funded multi pronged program to push the basic sciences and technology for themselves. Two the development of the Long March-5 program is a huge draw from the funds available for space programs. There is only so much that this and the next five year plan can handle based on the obvious limits to the discretionary funds. Three It is stipulated that only “ four launches will be done in two years”. There is one and only one Tiangong module involved so far that will be launched with a rapid succession launch of Shenzhou 8, the two more launches Shenzhou-9 & 10 missions in sequence. Four the total stations life space is two years but that is dependent on the rate of the utilization of the expendables. Five is that once Tiangong 1 is launched the three Shenzhou 8, 9 &10 spacecraft will “ be launched with in a month of each other” in a series of rapid succession two launch operations not previously seen but built into the launch facility infrastructure’s capability. None of these Tiangong modules will dock together as presently envisioned.

Certainly the combination as envisioned will incorporate 10 and 15 day and perhaps up to 20 or 30 day mission duration capability. There should be no confusion about the Tiangong-1 module technological design because it has two docking ports one in front one in the rear connected to its launch instrument propulsion module. It should also be clear at some point one of the Shenzhou orbital modules will have to be jettisoned to make way for the next manned crew docking because the orbital modules and instrument propulsion modules are being used as interchangeable service modules in addition to the man tended Shenzhou spacecraft that utilize the orbital modules docked to the space lab. By doing things this way China will be able to demonstrate the kind of logistic support required for long duration operations in both manned and unmanned modes. The replenishment supplies will be carried by Shenzhou-8 for the Shenzhou-9 and Shenzhou-10 crew stay periods. Close study of the hardware suggest that the Shenzhou orbital module is equipped with a hatch between the descent module and the interior of the orbital module. How all this work in sequence is amazingly simple and ingenious in it simple design approach?

 Tiangong-1 Shenzhou-8 & Shenzhou-9, 10 Mission Sequences

1. First launch the unmanned Tiangong-1 space laboratory module with its Shenzhou instrument propulsion module.

2. This will be followed by the unmanned launch and automatic docking demonstration of the Shenzhou-8 spacecraft. It orbital module can serve as an instrument propulsion module for the Tiangong-1 module once it jettisons its own instrument propulsion module. That Shenzhou-8 orbital module will bring up the supplies for the two manned missions to follow.

3. The subsequent manned Shenzhou-9 and Shenzhou-10 will also use their orbital modules to bring up supplies in sequence and to serve as instrument propulsion modules.

4. Once the Shenzhou-8 descent module and instrument propulsion module have parted its orbital module can serve as an instrument propulsion module for the Tiangong-1 module.

5. In a series of rapid succession manned mission launched with in a month of one another the Shenzhou-9 manned missions the Shenzhou-10 manned spacecraft will demonstrate manned docking and operation of the Tiangong-1 module space laboratory.

6. As they near the end of their Shenzhou-9 mission the Shenzhou-10 manned spacecraft will be launched and the now empty Shenzhou-8 orbital module full of trash will be jettisoned opening up the port for the Shenzhou-10 spacecraft docking.

7. Either before or soon after the Shenzhou-10 docking the Shenzhou-9 descent module with its instrument propulsion module will depart leaving the Shenzhou-9 orbital module to serve as an instrument propulsion module.

8. After the completion of the Shenzhou-10 mission the crew will return using heir instrument propulsion module and descent module leaving the Shenzhou-10 orbital module to control the Tiangong-1 module to the end of it design life.

Thus this space laboratory module program will have demonstrated docking, re-supply, endurance and most of all interchangeable hand off of the service control modules in two forms besides the manned tended space laboratory operations for its multiple intentions

The Shenzhou-10 spacecraft is expected to carry a two man crew. Each of these Shenzhou spacecraft launches are expected to be carried out in something under a month between each launch since the Tiangong 1 station module has a design life of two year depending on the rate of use of expendables and crewing .

That is a total of three Shenzhou spacecraft one unmanned and two manned and the unmanned Tiangong 1 module. That initial program will end in the first two year of the next five year plan. The earth orbital assembly docking of the unmanned Tiangong 1 module and subsequent three Shenzhou spacecraft number 8, 9 & 10 is tentatively scheduled for launch within this five year plan in 2010 or the first year of the next five year plan 2011. The unmanned Tiangong 1 docking with the unmanned Shenzhou-8 spacecraft will be the initial demonstrate of the technological know how to establish the rudimentary space station within this five year plan. It is to be followed by the docking of the Shenzhou-9 manned spacecraft to finally establish the rudimentary manned space laboratory for longer duration scientific missions. Soon afterwards with the next manned Shenzhou-10 manned spacecraft launch the second crew manning of the space laboratory will take place as the mission planned durations are carried out. This is expected to serve as a demonstration longer duration manned mission as a military reconnaissance platform among other task that will be facilitated. Previous models of the Shenzhou spacecraft have been utilized for this purpose from the observed on board equipment. China has yet to display the still in development international docking system they plan to utilize on the Shenzhou spacecraft. After this initial manned space laboratory program is over China intends to move on to the larger more permanent Long March-5 launch Salyut/Mir like permanent space station to be established by 2020 (that is two five year plans down the road typically mid plan period before 2020) that may utilize multiple Tiangong 1 like modules in addition to the Shenzhou manned transport spacecraft. (12) It is assumed that the Chinese program will launch the Tiangong 1 and subsequent independent Tiangong 2 & Tiangong 3 modules as “all up” payloads like they have previously demonstrated in the manned program practices. A total of three separate Tiangong modules and eight Shenzhou spacecraft are expected to be flown from 2010-2015 with the last two modules to be flown in the next five year plan 2011-2015.

I still believe that China driven by its military requirements will give priority to the space laboratory, station effort over the lunar effort but China’s Politburo leadership may have decided to take advantage of its world stage opportunity in the coming years at the USA‘s expense. Thus the limited manned lunar effort is possible.

Multiple Five Year Plans Planning

China has laid out a four part space technology demonstration program primarily driven by military requirements that was first to perform successfully the basic technological task to make manned flight regularly possible to be followed by a spacecraft docking (phase two) the development of a rudimentary space laboratory (phase three) to eventually to be followed by a full phase four Salyut class space station effort by 2020 two five year plans down the road.

China has expressed the policy that its manned lunar landing planning has been delayed to the 2021-2025 time frame three five year plans down the road and that it will not be introduced into the forecast five year plan for development until 2011. But lunar circumnavigation or lunar orbit missions are another matter not openly discussed that could in principle be carried out anytime during the next two five year plans 2011-2020 once docking is demonstrated in 2010 and into 2011. Interestingly many areas in the planning details between 2010-2015 remain unfilled based on the next two five year plans verses the previous and present five year plans discussed publicly suggesting the development of another manned related program yet to be acknowledged openly. This is expected to become more clarified as the end of the present five year plan December 30, 2010 approaches and the next five year plan is introduced January 1, 2011.

The recent Politburo's decisions accelerating this space missions and the space program plans forward almost by a full month may be a strong indicator of the importance of the present and next five year planning has taken precedents within it members from the back grounders received. The first apparent acknowledgement of an in progress consideration of this early possibility of a PRC Chinese manned lunar effort in the not to distant future may have been revealed officially in SpaceDaily.com from Beijing by AFP when it quoted Wang Zhaoyao:

"It now has its sights on a manned mission to the moon and a space station, said Wang Zhaoyao, spokesman for the manned space programme. 'We believe that as long as we can make further progress in science and technology, we can achieve the dream of a manned space flight to the moon in the near future,' he told reporters after the Shenzhou VII's return."(11)

Up to now there had only been indications of considerations of this possibility as previously noted but this flight may have cleared it for official planning within this five year plan for actual development and implementation with in the next two five year plans based on the available systems already in hand or in development as previously noted in the URL links above. Presumably this will involve a manned lunar circumnavigation mission and lunar orbit missions. This reconfirms the red flag to what NASA administrator Griffin has publicly stated as threatening US space leadership and the associated policy issues. There is little doubt that the CIA, DNI provided background briefing on China's space activities and relater international space issues is having its impact.

China is clearly marching to its own drummer doing its thing on the world stage for its own purposes. I still believe that China driven by its State military requirements will give priority to the space laboratory, station effort over the lunar effort but China's Politburo leadership may have decided to take advantage of its world stage opportunity in the coming years at the USA 's expense. Thus the limited manned lunar effort is possible.

Basically we now have the PRC China manned spaceflight planning laid out for the next three five year plans including this five year plan (2010) 2011-2025 which reflects how China intends to both equal or pull ahead of any of the then to exist world powers on the world stage in manned spaceflight as a part of its doctrinal belief that it can replace one of those world powers on the world stage towards the end of that period. Whether like Russia in its present economic bubble that will not last the question is can China truly economically control and sustain this attempt remains uncertain.