Shenzhou-7
China’s Third Manned Spaceflight
Key to the Future Planning
© By Charles P. Vick (All Rights Reserved)
Senior Analyst, Globalsecurity.org
09-21-29/10-07-2008
Disclaimer The opinions and evaluations stated here in are only the authors and cannot be construed to reflect those of any government agency, company, institute or association. It is based on public information, circumstantial evidence, informed speculation, and official PRC Chinese government. As with all data regarding the Chinese space programs, this analysis is subject to revision--and represents a work in progress. It reflects the total open source analysis process and previous studies using the same information analysis process.
Policy Reasoning
First and foremost the Chinese space programs are methodically moving forward in a very deliberate graduated paced technology development assimilation operational capability demonstration process to raise it Science and Technology to world class independence from the rest of the world especially in its military S & T industrial demonstrated capabilities. It is also a confirmation of the very graduated limited stretched out under funding issues that the S&T program continues to manifest that is so revealing. This space program activity is very much involves with the Chinese peoples entertainment demonstrating the Chinese authoritarian single communist party leadership justification for its existence and its concentration on pushing the basic Sciences and Technologies for it economy and for the peoples well being providing the military national security capabilities desired.
S&T Demonstration of Chinese Space Prowess
From the start of this process China has, like the West, used the available discretionary funds to push its S & T to drive its national economy to provide for development of its military industrial industry capabilities, all under the same Government employer roof. That has now received added emphasis for this five year plan period with the 20% increase in S & T discretionary funding or a forecast planning increase of 2.5% of GDP by 2020. In China , the authoritarian State exists based on the military and in some cases bordering on the totalitarian side. China ’s military space capability would develop regardless of what the West does but it is still far behind the US present evolving military space capability. Probably in 15 years or so China may indeed fully challenge our leadership regardless of what China may say publicly because the circumstantial evidence is in their forecast planning considerations. It directly reflects their doctrinal belief as a rising world economic power that they are capable of replacing the U. S. on the world stage to preserve their system.
We have to understand why these programs are being pursued by China. It has been the plan like in the West at least since the introduction of the 863 manned program in 1986 to apply from the total available government funding about 40% to basic scientific research to push the basic sciences and about 60% of the available funding to push the basic technologies, (research & development). This is done to drive the national economy and to provide for the citizenry’s well being. Above all, it is to provide for the national security of the nation by keeping the Chinese technologically competitive with the technologically advanced world leadership. Typically this so called budget funding largely derived from the vulnerable to external influence capitalist economic zones of the PRC China for the command economy operated through the five year plan via the State controlled allocation of material resources and personnel which is broken down between strictly military programs and civil military duel purpose programs.
Thus they are acquiring the technological and scientific know how building blocks by assimilation it and then demonstrating it with caution but confidence as they gain on the world space powers for their own space prowess.
Military Backing and Implications
We have also seen the impact of the authoritarian political leadership on the planning for this mission and it’s forward changed launch date from the expected October to late September for crew return before the October 1, national holiday. This was carried out to assure full daylight coverage of the EVA operations on a single pass over mainland China . Thus the Chinese space program authorities have set up a series of building block mission with ever increasing capability planned through this five year plan and looking to the next two five year plans being developed also known as the forecast plan and outlook plan.
The military is both supportive and integral to this Sciences and Technology development process as they desire to acquire such known how for their own capability application to many related fields to raise themselves to world power status with all its implied potential threats which they do not admit but let it speak for itself in its not so subtle way.
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