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Yemen Civil War - 2023

The conflict in Yemen caused 377,000 deaths in eight years according to the UN, and sparked a severe humanitarian crisis, which has left 80 percent of the population struggling to access food, water and health care. As regional relations showed signs of improvement, the complexity of the conflict cannot be underestimated. For instance, there is an ongoing threat from violent jihadist factions and separatist desires in south Yemen, formerly an independent state.

The conflict in Yemen is not just about Saudi Arabia and Iran. It's also about local grievances. It's about control of territory. It's about access to politics. It's about a vision for the state. And these are not matters that can be can be negotiated away by elites in Riyadh and Teheran.

The renewal in diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia raised hopes of an end to fighting in Yemen, where the two regional powers have been locked in a proxy war for eight years. The deal renewing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran had barely been signed on 10 March 2023 in Beijing when all eyes turned to Yemen, where the two rival powers have been in indirect confrontation since 2015. The surprise agreement between the two Middle Eastern powers may have its most concrete impact in Yemen, which has been ravaged by a war between its government, supported by a Saudi-led military coalition, and Houthi rebels supported by Iran.

Whether an immediate consequence of the agreement, or a simple coincidence of the calendar, UN-sponsored talks between the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels began the next day on March 11 in Geneva. The talks are the seventh such meeting aiming to implement an agreement on prisoner exchanges made in Stockholm five years ago. Optimism stemmed directly from the renewal of diplomatic ties, since it was now expected that the Saudis will exert pressure on the Yemeni government and the Iranians on the Houthis to obtain an initial breakthrough. Then, if they are successful on the issue of prisoners, they will need to push talks even further to reach a peace agreement. Getting a concrete solution to the Yemen crisis that will placate Saudi fears about Houthi attacks in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been the key sticking point. If the Saudis have reached an agreement with Iran, then possibly they had figured out a way of either extricating themselves from Yemen or guaranteeing their security.