Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine
The capture of Avdiivka was one of Vladimir Putin's political tasks. The Russian government was badly in need of demonstrating a win ahead of Putin’s rubber-stamp re-election as president in March 2024.
Avdiivka is a city 13 kilometers from Donetsk, occupied by the Russians. Throughout the years of the war, the front line passed near the city. From October 10, 2023, Russian troops began storming Avdiivka with columns of equipment. This stage of the battles for the city was called "the great offensive on Avdiivka". The Russian Federation, apparently, was afraid of a possible attack on Donetsk from here. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), delays in Western aid to Ukraine helped Russia advance on several fronts. US funding for arms shipments to Ukraine remained uncertain due to opposition from former President Donald Trump and his Republican allies in Congress. The bill on aid to Ukraine, which is opposed by former President Donald Trump. Speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican Mike Johnson, noted that he has no plans to bring a $95 billion international aid package to a vote in the House of Representatives anytime soon. The US Senate supported a draft law that provides aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan in the amount of 95 billion dollars, 60 billion of which is assigned to Kyiv.
The lack of ammunition was the main reason that prompted the Ukrainians to withdraw from Avdiivka, despite its importance, but today they face other problems on the way to protecting the rest of the province’s cities. Oleg Zhdanov, a military expert and colonel in the reserve forces, believes that “time is running out for Ukraine. The problem of the lack of ammunition may continue until the end of spring, because it depends to a large extent on faltering American aid. Also, after the loss of Avdiivka, Ukraine will face difficulty in transferring supplies to the rest of the fronts.”
Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, received campaign contributions from American Ethane, a company 88% owned by three Russians, including Russian nationalist Konstantin Nikolaev, who previously funded Russian spy Maria Butina. No wonder he is against the aid to Ukraine, and is nicknamed "Moscow Mike". Trump's enthusiasm for Russia is well known.
US President Joe Biden called on the House of Representatives to approve the bill as soon as possible, which, among other things, provides for assistance to Ukraine. He emphasized that "the price of inaction is increasing every day, especially in Ukraine, there are already reports that Ukrainian troops are running out of ammunition on the front line, while Russian troops continue to advance."
The importance of the adoption of the aid package for Ukraine was emphasized by the former commander of the US Ground Forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, during a conference on the prospects of the Russian war in Ukraine. He noted that for him, as an American, "it is humiliating that the United States could not provide a new aid package" to Ukraine. According to Ben Hodges, currently "Ukraine is doing everything possible to buy time for next year", which, according to the general, "could be the decisive year" of this war.
Ukrainian troops left Avdiivka on February 17, 2024. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, announced this decision : " Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines." Supreme Commander-in-Chief, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi called it a logical and professional decision for the sake of the lives of the military.
On 18 February 2024, the Ukrainian military, by order of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, moved away from their positions in the city of Avdiyivka in order to protect the lives of personnel. From October 10, 2023, the occupiers began to storm Avdiivka en masse. Institute for the Study of War analysts noted that the capture of Avdiyivka is an example of how Russia conducts offensive operations that do not necessarily create conditions for wider operational gains.
"Russian forces have not yet demonstrated the ability to ensure significant operational success or conduct rapid mechanized maneuver over large swathes of territory, and the capture of Avdiivka should not be taken as a demonstration of this ability," the ISW emphasized. The Russian tank regiments and divisions that operated near Avdiivka "distinguished themselves", advancing several kilometers in 4 months and suffering huge losses in personnel. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces suffered much fewer losses and were able to withdraw to prepared defensive positions.
From 2014 until today, Avdiyivka was the closest city to Donetsk under the control of the Ukrainian army. The demarcation line, which was formed here in 2014, almost did not move for the entire 8 years of the war, until the beginning of a full-scale invasion. The front passed through the Avdiivka industrial zone: on one side - the city of Avdiivka, on the other - occupied Yasinuvata. Both Ukraine and Russia were firmly entrenched here at the beginning of the war, so during its new phase in 2022, this fortified area was very difficult for the aggressor.
Military analysts had assessed the scenario of an attack by the Armed Forces on Donetsk as unlikely. On the approaches to it, there are dense buildings, not to mention the city itself. Street battles are among the most difficult, and always involve significant civilian casualties and destruction of buildings. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not attack any population center "head-on" during the entire war - from 2014. In contrast to Russia, which uses exactly such tactics in every case.
On the morning of October 10, 2023, Russian troops launched the most powerful attack on Avdiivka during the 9 years of the war. Statements of Russian propaganda on that day indicated that the Russian Federation expected to capture Avdiivka by the evening. However, this "day" lasted for four months. at the end of October 10, 2023 Russian troops continued the operation to storm the Avdeevsky fortified area.
Fighting was going on near the outskirts of the village of Berdychi . Soldiers of the Russian army have gained a foothold on the northeastern approaches after crossing the railway track and are awaiting a counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The assault groups managed to break through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at a waste heap located southwest of Krasnogorovka . This is a commanding height from where Russian troops will be able to control the approaches to the Avdeevka fortified area from the north and west, facilitating the encirclement of Avdeevka.
During these 4 months, Russian troops conducted 20-60 assaults per day, which is a very high indicator for the Ukrainian front. Russian units went to Avdiivka in armored columns with assault forces, losing them in the fields. During this time, it became clear that even the extremely difficult battles in Bakhmut could not compare with what was happening in the Avdiiv direction.
By early NOvember 2023, Ukrainian military observer Yuri Butusov believes that the battles for the city of Avdeevka in the Donetsk region are tactically different from the defense of the temporarily lost Ukrainian cities of Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, Soledar and Bakhmut. He suggested that there could be a “trap for the Russians” here. According to him, the 110th Mechanized Brigade “demonstrates exceptional combat effectiveness and reliably holds the city, preventing the enemy from getting caught in urban development,” so the enemy is advancing north and south of the brigade’s positions. Butusov drew attention to the fact that Ukrainian troops have much more advantageous positions in terms of tactics and are good at holding the flanks of the breakthrough. “If we stabilize the defense north of Avdeevka, then even in positional defense, Russian troops will suffer losses many times higher than ours. The situation near Avdievka poses much more risks for Russian troops than for us,” he emphasized.
Military correspondent Yuri Kotenok spoke about the main events of the battle for Avdiivka, notimg the first encirclement of Avdeevka by the Russian army failed. “We took Berdychi, the enemy knocked us out, we had to start over. They entrenched themselves on the dumps, did not attack head-on, went around to the left of the coke plant, and struck between it and the quarry. The underground raid on the “Tsar’s Hunt” demoralized the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They quickly took over high-rise buildings, practically on the fly. There are powerful air bombs on the fortifications. The 3rd brigade of the MTR ("Azov", a terrorist organization, banned in the Russian Federation) did not save.... Avdeevka was taken more competently than Bakhmut. Connection: aviation - artillery - infantry. Avdeevka was taken by infantry units. Avdeevka was taken by private infantry Vanya, God bless him! The city was squeezed, weak points were revealed, and they were cut into pieces like a pie."
The situation escalated when they took Opytnoye, then it escalated sharply after the waste heap fell, which was a natural, but very powerful and even serious line of defense. After the waste heap fell, the situation became more complicated. Some believed it was clear that the Ukrainian army would not be able to hold Avdiivka by November 2023, when the Russian Armed Forces occupied Opytne.
The Russian occupiers advanced on Avdiivka with particular tenacity. For this, a huge amount of manpower and equipment was used. a significant number of enemy forces were destroyed. Similar tactics, as near Avdiivka, were used by the Russians in Severodonetsk in 2022 and in Bakhmut in 2023. At the same time, it is not entirely correct to compare the battles in these cities. It was much more hellish battles and a much more difficult situation.
In particular, the number of Russian forces in the Avdiiv direction was much larger than during the battles for Bakhmut. This applies not only to manpower, but also to technology and aviation. In Avdiivka, everything was many times more. It must be taken into account that the Russians prepared as many as 7 fully equipped brigades just for the offensive . They were used in the direction of the breakthrough of the area that they had planned: through the city to Industrial Avenue and then the encirclement of the groups that were there.
Guided aerial bombs simply turn entire buildings into dust. Even basements are not safe from them. In the battles for Avdiivka, the number of guided aerial bombs that the Russians fired at Ukrainian positions played a huge role. They destroyed any command posts, positions, destroyed everything that was in general. On average, 60-80 KABs fell per day, but sometimes more than 100 KABs flew in per day.
In February 2024, in addition to narrowing the pockets around the city (these are the storming of the villages of Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Stepove, Berdychi, Novobakhmutivka and others), Russian troops were able to break through to the city buildings and launch a direct attack on the city.
One of the factors that made this possible was that the aggressor bypassed the Ukrainian positions and got behind them in the area of the "Tsarska Okhota" restaurant in the south of the city. Russian soldiers claimed that the Russian Armed Forces passed 2 kilometers through a pipe in the ground (presumably this is an element of the system of the Donetsk filter station, the Avdiiv coke plant, or simply a sewer). In parallel, they continued the pressure through the Avdiiv industrial zone from the east and on the Avdiiv coke plant from the North. However, the most significant advance was from the South.
About a week before the end of the defensive operation, information appeared in the mass media about the transfer to Avdiivka of 3 separate assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the time, most observers believed that the unit was transferred to try to recapture the city. However, from the way events developed later, it can be assumed that the task of the unit was precisely to ensure the exit of the units from the city. At least 7 brigades of the Russian Armed Forces stood against the Defense Forces in Avdiivka.
Ukrainian military and international monitors, such as the Institute of Study of War and the intelligence of Great Britain stated that Russia used an unprecedented number of troops in the operation to capture Avdiivka (according to British intelligence - 8 brigades). Already at the end of October, the British called the Russian losses near Avdiivka one of the largest for 2023, and in the first month of intensified assaults, the Russian Federation lost 10,000 soldiers and 350 units of armored vehicles, according to the calculations of the General Staff of the Armed Forces.
"I thank the fighters for the worthy battle they gave to the enemy in Avdiivka in the conditions of the total superiority of the Russians in manpower, equipment and ammunition. They did everything and even more. Thank you for your resilience everyone. We retreat to prepared positions to return and deliver an even more powerful blow. Thanks to the command for the considered decision. The battle continues," said Brigadier General of the 3rd OShBr Andriy Biletskyi on February 17.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported 17 February 2024 to Russian President Vladimir Putin about the complete taking of Avdeevka under control of the Center group of troops under the command of Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev.
On the last day of the city's defense, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi , while attending the Munich Security Conference, said that Russia's losses near Avdiivka since October amounted to tens of thousands of soldiers, and that the ratio of Ukrainian to Russian losses there is one to seven.
Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavria operational-strategic group of troops, said that during the battle for Avdiivka, which began on October 10, 2023, the Russians lost 47,000 soldiers on this part of the front. The active storming of the city took place for almost 4 months. In addition, the invaders lost 364 tanks, 248 artillery systems, 748 armored fighting vehicles and 5 aircraft.
Commander Oleksandr Tarnavskyi thanked each Ukrainian soldier for their steadfastness, courage, heroism and destroyed enemy equipment. "In small cells, the retreat was indeed not without losses, because the enemy continued to launch rocket and air strikes, part of the special forces advanced to all positions. It was extremely difficult for us to leave the city without a fight. Some of our fighters were in fortified areas and were fighting at 360 degrees - in complete surroundings," according to Mykola Malomuzh, a retired army general and former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
A message appeared in one of the Russian telegram channels about the shooting of six captured servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at one of the positions in Avdiivka - it is about the Zenit military district. The Prosecutor General's Office wrote that it has launched an investigation into the shooting of Ukrainian prisoners of war by the Russian military in Avdiivka and Vesely. According to the prosecutor's office, these were seriously wounded fighters who could not move on their own and were waiting for evacuation.
On February 18, 2024 WarGonzo reported “Under the pressure of the Russian Armed Forces, the Ukrainian Armed Forces completely abandoned Avdeevka and the coke plant. Thus, the most powerful Ukrainian fortified area near Donetsk fell. The Russian Armed Forces have every chance of developing operational success in this sector of the front. Ukrainian positions in Konstantinovka (not to be confused with the settlement of the same name southwest of Bakhmut), Pobeda and the city of Krasnohorivka are under attack”.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War emphasized that the Russians were unable to completely surround Avdiivka during the 4 months of active fighting that began in October. They could not overcome even 9 kilometers. This shows that the Russians are ready to commit tens of thousands of soldiers to offensive operations, which will not even necessarily create conditions for wider operational gains.
The Ukrainian military had already taken up new defensive positions after leaving Avdiivka. They are preparing for new probable offensive actions of the Russian army. After the withdrawal from Avdiyvka of the Donetsk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine established themselves on new frontiers, said the commander of the operational-strategic group of troops "Tavria" Oleksandr Tarnavskyi.
General Hodges said that in Avdiivka, the Russians are doing what they do best: "They have the ability to continue to put a large number of people into the meat grinder." The general also noted that the loss of Avdiivka does not give the Russians a significant advantage, and it is not a significant defeat for Ukraine. "Let's say they finally captured Avdiivka, and then what? You remember the thousands of people killed around Bakhmut. Then what? There is no famous Red Army corps hiding in the forest and waiting to be used, even if Avdiivka is captured," Ben Godges analyzes.
The fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops for control of Avdiivka demonstrated that the Kiev regime does not have sufficient forces and resources to militarily counter Russia. This point of view was expressed by Chinese military analyst Wei Dongxu.
Military correspondent Alexander Sladkov told what the Russian Armed Forces will do after the capture of Avdeevka. “And there is no need to rush further. Have you noticed that the 42nd Yevpatoriya Motorized Rifle Division and the 76th Pskov Airborne Assault Division went to Rabotino today? And they will definitely take it. And Orekhov will be taken away, he stands further in the Ukrainian rear. And thus they will move closer to the city of Zaporozhye. And near Donetsk, the forces released from Avdeevka will find use in the Kurakhovsky direction. We’ll push there and surround the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping near Ugledar and on the Vremevsky ledge (they’ve probably already forgotten, right?). The Ukrainian Armed Forces have confirmed their tradition of getting into the cauldron, Ugledar is another suitable place. It is impossible not to take into account the fact that Russian volunteers are now coming and going to military registration and enlistment offices. And the more successes we have at the front, the more volunteers will come to the Russian army. That is life. And we will be able to start bypassing Kharkov, which we also need,” the journalist noted.
Nick Paton Walsh, writing for CNN, reported 19 January 2024 "It is a pivotal moment, where both Russian advances and Western atrophy threaten to transform the biggest land war in Europe since the 1940s.... The warnings that Ukraine might suffer setbacks on the frontline if the United States Congress continued to hold up a $60 billion aid package have now curdled into a bitter, brutal reality. The pledges and rhetoric of Munich’s suits and limousines have so far amounted to little; in the wait, or abyss, ahead, Ukraine is losing people and land. It is all very real, very immediate and stark.... In and of itself, the Ukrainian defeat Avdiivka does not herald a sea change in Kyiv’s fortunes. It is only of moderate strategic importance. ... Some analysis has seen Syrsky’s opening act of withdrawing from Avdiivka as a bid to show he is a more protective custodian of troops’ lives than his hard man reputation would suggest... The impact of Congress’s indecision is already calamitous."
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian President Putin twice set his army a time frame for capturing the entire territory of the Donetsk region: first, by the fall of 2022 ; later by March 1, 2023 . Neither the first nor the second plan came true. The progress of Russian troops in the Donbass since the beginning of July 2022, when Lysychansk was taken (which means that the entire Luhansk region is occupied), has amounted to a few kilometers; in September 2022, the aggressor's troops began to retreat; only in January 2023 they managed to capture the small town of Soledar , and by May - most of Bakhmut.
In Bakhmut the Russian Federation lost one soldier for every 48 centimeters of territory;, where, according to the conclusions of the British Ministry of Defense, and by the end of February 2024 - Avdeevka. Since May 2023, the Defense Forces of Ukraine had been conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction, and since June 2023 they have also broken through the southern front - at the junction of the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. However, since October 2023, the Russian Federation had again gone on the attack, pushing in the east on three fronts: Avdeevsko, Kupyansko-Lymansko and Bakhmutsko (only in Ugledarsko its activity is relatively lower), as well as in the south: near Rabotino in the Zaporozhye region.
The Russian newspaper Gazeta published a report by writer Anna Gromova on the expected course of events after Russian forces seized the city of Avdiivka on February 17. Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin, stated that Russia continues to advance in the Avdiivka area, saying: “Our units are developing an attack and preventing the enemy from gaining a foothold on new lines.” For its part, the Russian Ministry of Defense published footage of the attacks on the retreating Ukrainians, confirming that they They retreat along the roads targeted by the Russian army.
The Gazeta report indicated that Ukrainian opposition activist Igor Lutsenko commented on the situation, saying, “Russia has taken a steady pace of attack. Before Madievka, it was Marinka, Bakhmut, and Northern Lysychansk, and now it is the turn of Korakhovo, Uglidar, Stepnoe, and Kubyansk.” Lutsenko did not rule out that Kharkiv and Zaporozhye would be next. “There is no limit to where the Russians will stop, after taking such a stable pace.”
At the conclusion of the report, Gromova pointed out that Elon Musk tweeted on his Twitter account regarding the news that Ukraine lost Avdiivka to Russia, saying, “The longer the conflict lasts, the better for Russia.
The fall of the city of Avdiivka in Donetsk Province, eastern Ukraine , at the hands of the Russians was not similar to the fall of the city of Bakhmut, which occupied the world months ago. The recent battles were more like flexing muscles and breaking bones, as it turned out, and Bakhmut's fall in the end did not affect the course of the war.
The situation is completely different with Avdiivka, as its fall is considered the biggest achievement achieved by the Russians since mid-2022, especially since it opens a path for them towards major residential blocs in the district, almost half of which are under their control, and makes it difficult for the Ukrainians to protect the other half. It also enhances the Russians’ hopes of regaining control over parts of the city. From neighboring Kharkiv province.
Indeed, signs of the matter appeared hours after the fall of Avdiivka, with violent bombardment launched by the Russians on the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk in the far north of Donetsk Province, close to the borders of Kharkiv Province, to which they approached - in practice - about 30 kilometers. This is because the city of Avdiivka is located on the international road “H20” leading north to those cities, which was under Ukrainian control a few days ago, and it is a road that also connects to the cities of Izyum in the southeast of Kharkiv Province, and Kubyansk in its far east, where the Russians are mobilizing. Large numbers of troops.
Military analyst, Denis Popovich, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that “the Russians’ priority is to move north after Avdiivka, because their eyes are on Kramatorsk, the most important city under Ukrainian control in Donetsk, and on the international line and the railway line that connects Russia’s territory to all the hot battle fronts.” Popovich believes that "this strengthens the Russians' hopes of achieving the goal of controlling the entire Donetsk province, and retrying to control Kharkiv as well."
To achieve these hopes, geography favors the Russians. Avdiivka, which is described as the gateway to protecting the city of Donetsk under their control (the capital of the province that bears its name), is located at the foot of a high hill, and this enhances the possibility of preserving their new positions there and targeting others. This geography, which helped the Ukrainians to remain steadfast inside the city for 4 months, even though they were surrounded from 3 directions, has today become a reason that will make it difficult for the Ukrainians to regain the city in the near future, according to military analyst, Roman Cvetan.
But other Ukrainians look with some positivity at the prospect of defending the rest of Donetsk after the fall of Avdiivka, and they consider that progress after that will not be easy for the Russians. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a political-military analyst in the “Media Resistance” group, tells Al Jazeera Net, “Regardless of the difficulties, we must not forget that we have been defending in those areas since 2014, and since the beginning of the war the Russians have not been able to achieve significant progress as they achieved in other northern and southern provinces.”
He stressed that "every kilometer of advance in Donetsk costs the Russians thousands of soldiers. Regardless of the difference in numbers and strength, let us not forget that they lost about 48 thousand regular soldiers there, and other villages and cities will not welcome them." In this context, he pointed out that the closest important cities to Avdiivka are Konstantievka, which is 30 kilometers to the north (on the H20 road leading to Kramatorsk), or Pokrovsk, which is 40 kilometers to the west (on the M04 international road).” According to Kovalenko, “The advance of the Russians is something we realize will be inevitable, but they need a period of rest, recalculation, and regrouping before moving forward, and this currently coincides with their official and media celebrations of achieving control over Avdiivka.”
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