Russo-Ukraine War - 14 June 2022 - Day 111
On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine in response to the appeal of the leaders of the "Donbass republics" for help. That attack is a blatant violation of the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. Putin stressed that Moscow's goal is the demilitarization and denazification of the country. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.
"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]
One hundred and eleventh days of the heroic opposition of the Ukrainian nation to the Russian military invasion continue.
Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that the speed of deoccupation of the country's territories depends on the supply of weapons to Ukraine, and any delays in this issue threaten stagnation at the front. "I am grateful for what is coming (weapons - ed.) . But it must come sooner if we all live by the same goal - that there be peace, that there be no war in Europe and that this war of the Russian Federation does not go to other countries, to the European Union and NATO countries. And I am sure that she has such dreams and thoughts," the head of state said.
Russia claims to be protecting the rights of Russian-speaking people in Ukraine, but most of the cities destroyed by the Russian army were inhabited by Russian-speaking residents. This was stated by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during an online press conference for Danish media. "They came up with a narrative that they are protecting Russian-speaking people, but there were Russian-speaking people in most of the cities they completely destroyed, where there are no more buildings or people. And they are now switching to Ukrainian because they are shocked at how the Russian army could have done that to them," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
"If Russia wants to end the war - because that's what they say in the media - they have to sit down at the negotiating table. The negotiating table on Ukraine is impossible without Ukraine. Therefore, these negotiations must be direct. We can talk to intermediaries, we can talk without intermediaries - I don't care. If the Russian Federation is ready to end the war, which means to withdraw troops from our territories, I am personally ready for such a format at any moment," said Volodymyr Zelenskyy, adding that every opportunity should be used to end the war, no matter how difficult it is.
Russian President Vladimir Putin probably still wants to seize many Ukrainian territories, if not all of Ukraine. However, he already had to narrow down his tactical goals in the war. This was stated by US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs Colin Kahl, quoted by Reuters. " I still believe that he [Putin] has plans for a large part of Ukraine, if not the whole country. However, I do not think he can achieve these goals , "he said. Colin Kahl added that the Russians "can achieve tactical success in some places", but the Ukrainians hold on. Therefore, the Deputy Minister believes that the occupiers are not able to achieve grand goals.
Pavel Lakiychuk , head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies' Strategy XXI, explains that if Ukrainian troops withdraw to Lisichansk, geography will help them: it is a hill, and there is a water barrier between it and the occupied territory. The main thing is that the Ukrainian military had time to withdraw from Severodonetsk by the time the third (last) bridge was destroyed. "Conceptually, we need to recruit at least 4-5 fresh brigades for the breakthrough, and not strong defense (light infantry), but powerful artillery, mechanized, to create a strategic reserve of them, and then, perhaps, we can go on the counteroffensive." , - Lakiychuk speaks cautiously.
Alexander Kovalenko , a military and political observer for the Information Resistance group , believes that the Russian troops will not have enough strength to attack the entire front line, but the Ukrainians need to be ready for tactical retreats. "Since the APU supports the tactics and strategy of the defensive war, we will be forced to carry out a tactical retreat from certain areas in the event of great danger." Kovalenko says that Russia's troops are now acting more carefully because they are short of resources, and calls conditional success an inertial phenomenon that will be leveled off over time.
Russia has already transferred all available forces to the Ukrainian borders and to the occupied territory, says Conflict Intelligence Team analyst Kirill Mikhailov . He confirms that Russia is now concentrating forces in the area of the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk ledge, which will try to surround and enter the Lisichansk-Bakhmut highway. According to Mikhailov, the offensive potential of the Russian army will be exhausted at any outcome of the battle for Donbass: it will probably no longer be able to develop an offensive against other regions.
General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, First Deputy Commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (2016-2019) Sergei Krivonos emphasizes that the main task for Ukraine now is to prepare personnel for the counter-attack, which will require other skills. “We need trained, prepared people. Therefore, the question is not just about mobilization, but about mobilization and subsequent professional training of people so that they can not just die for their homeland, but actively and successfully fight and survive in battle. Units that are on the defensive have one system of training, and those that will be needed for the offensive, another: from psychological to nuances of reconnaissance and defeat the enemy. Therefore, the number one task is to calmly and systematically prepare those who are now in the rear, so that they can then begin the offensive trained, and everyone knew their maneuver. And those who are now on the defensive provide the opportunity to train them. "
Nathan Ruser reported Ukrainian advances in the forests to the West of Izyum, though it is hard to establish control in this area. He also reported Russian gains in urban areas of Toshivka, and Russian advances along the Popasna railway near Vidrodzhennya. Ukraine War Map noted Ukraine forces are operating in the forests to the west of Izyum. Their numbers at the moment are unlikely to be sufficient to convincingly secure any of the settlements in the area.
The UK Ministry of Defence reported Russia's operational main effort remains the assault against the Sieverodonetsk pocket in the Donbas and its Western Group of forces have likely made small advances in the Kharkiv sector for the first time in several weeks. On 10 June, the First Deputy Chairman of Russia's Military Industrial Commission predicted that state defence spending will increase by 600-700 billion roubles (GBP 8.5 -10 billion), which could approach a 20% increase in Russia's defence budget. Russian government funding is allowing the country's defence industrial base to be slowly mobilised to meet demands placed on it by the war in Ukraine. However, the industry could struggle to meet many of these requirements, partially due to the effects of sanctions and lack of expertise. Russia's production of high-quality optics and advanced electronics likely remain troubled and could undermine its efforts to replace equipment lost in Ukraine.
The Russians continue to launch missile and air strikes on military and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. In the Volyn and Polissya directions, no active action was taken by the Russians. As part of the check of combat readiness of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus, exercises were conducted with units of special operations forces. In the northern direction, the Russians continued mortar shelling of settlements in border areas, including civilian infrastructure in the area of the settlement of Mykhalchyna Sloboda, Chernihiv region.
In the Kharkiv direction, the Russians focused its main efforts on maintaining the occupied frontiers. To restrain the actions of units of the Ukraine Defense Forces, it carries out systematic fire on the positions of Ukrainian troops. In addition, the Russian occupiers fired on civilian infrastructure in the settlements of Dementievka, Ruska Lozova, Mospanove and Bazalovka. The Russians remotely mined the area in the areas of Bayrak, Peremoha and Shestakovo. Russians conducted assault operations near Rubizhne, where fighting continues. Systematic Russian artillery shelling was recorded in the Slavic direction in the areas of the settlements of Tetyanivka, Chepil, Dolyna, Dibrivne and Bohorodychne. The Russians did not take any active action in the Lyman direction. He fired artillery at civilian infrastructure in the Siversk area.
In the Severodonetsk direction, the invaders fired on civilian infrastructure in the settlements of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Bila Gora, Ustynivka, Toshkivka and others. Helicopter strikes were conducte near Metelkino. The Russians conducted assaults in the city of Severodonetsk, fighting continued. The Russians were regrouping troops and trying to strengthen the group.
In the Bakhmut direction, the occupiers fired at Ukrainian troops with mortars, tube and rocket artillery in the areas of Mykolayivka, Berestove, Vrubivka, Pokrovske and New York. Russian army aircraft launched an air strike near Belogorovka. In the Berestov area, Ukrainian soldiers repulsed a Russian assault, inflicted losses on the Russians and forced them to retreat to their former positions. The Russians conducted assault operations in the area of the settlement of Zolote, the fighting continues.
The Russians did not conduct active hostilities in the Avdiivka, Kurakhiv, Novopavliv and Zaporizhia directions. They fired on civilian infrastructure near Avdiivka, Marinka and Huliaipil, struck with assault and army aircraft in the areas of Sribne and Mali Shcherbaki, and conducted reconnaissance in battle near Pavlivka. In the South Bug direction, the Russians fired on units of Ukrainian troops and tried to fight the counter-battery. In the areas of Trudolyubivka, Tokareve, Bashtanka, Kvitneve, Luch, Tavriyske, and Oleksandrivka, the Russians fired at the infrastructure with artillery, mortars, and multiple rocket launchers. The Russians conducted reconnaissance in this direction using UAVs. They remotely mined some parts of the river Ingulets, and continued engineering equipment positions. The situation in the Bessarabian direction has not changed significantly.
The official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov, during a briefing spoke about how the fighting is going on in Ukraine. ccording to him, high-precision long-range missiles "Caliber" destroyed the arsenal of artillery weapons and ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Chernihiv region. Also, according to Konashenkov, high-precision air-launched missiles managed to hit 11 areas of concentration of manpower and Ukrainian military equipment, eight firing positions of artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and two ammunition depots in Kharkiv.
Russian aviation hit 101 areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. More than 350 Ukrainian soldiers, three command posts, 13 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, six Grad installations, 14 field artillery pieces and 22 special vehicles were destroyed. Artillerymen and missilemen hit 280 areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 18 command posts, 59 firing positions of artillery and mortar units, as well as a fuel depot. Russian air defense systems managed to shoot down a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force and a Mi-24 helicopter, as well as nine Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles.
Konashenkov said that Ukrainian nationalists shot in the back a group of soldiers who decided to surrender to Russian troops.
Russia's special military operation in Ukraine is going according to plan. The Russian Armed Forces continue to liberate the DPR and LPR, while destroying Western weapons supplied to Ukraine and foreign mercenaries. In addition, preparations are underway for an attack on Kharkov. This was stated in an interview with the 360 TV channel by a well-known political scientist, a specialist in interethnic conflicts Yevgeny Mikhailov.
“We continue to clean up the territory of Ukraine from wild geese and mercenaries. And that's great. Let them be afraid. Let them know that we see that they are coming and where they are, ”the expert emphasized. Also, as he noted, the processing of territories by artillery, tactical aviation, preparations for closing the boilers and the complete liberation of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics from Ukrainian fascists continue.
In his opinion, after the Donbass is completely liberated, the RF Armed Forces will proceed to the liberation of Kharkov. “My thoughts are confirmed. Already, processing and liberation of certain settlements in the Kharkiv region is underway, but gradually. The main tasks will now be completed in the LDNR, and next week we will hear about some offensive actions in the Kharkov region. Everything is going according to plan,” Mikhailov concluded.
Mikhailov explained why the capture of Kharkov is strategically important for the entire course of Russia's special operation in Ukraine. “Kharkov is located not far from our border. Accordingly, it is from this city that the Ukrainian security forces can deliver heavy artillery strikes with the same multiple launch rocket systems, possibly supplied by the United States and Germany, ”he explained. According to him, the range of Western weapons makes it possible to hit Russian cities on a larger scale. Therefore, in his opinion, now it is necessary to reorient to the Kharkov direction. “We need to take Kharkiv and work on, I am sure that this will happen soon,” summed up the expert on interethnic conflicts.
Western partners have so far handed over to Ukraine about 10% of the weapons requested by Kyiv, said Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Malyar. "No matter what efforts Ukraine makes today, no matter how professional Ukrainian army is, we will not be able to win this war without the help of Western partners. ... We currently have about 10% of what Ukraine said we need, ”Malyar said on the national telethon. According to her, on the battlefield Ukraine spends about 5-6 thousand artillery shells a day, Russia spends 10 times more. "These are figures that do not even need to be commented on," said Painter.
The Deputy Defense Minister stressed that the West should speed up aid. According to her, Kyiv expects from the meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine in the Rammstein format, scheduled for June 15 in Brussels, to announce a clear time frame for assistance.
"Indeed, we need to ask questions to set clear deadlines, because every day of procrastination is actually the life of Ukrainian soldiers, it is the life of Ukrainian people - civilians, it is destroyed Ukrainian cities, and, finally, it is, as we see now," temporarily occupied territories. And so, unfortunately, we can't wait very long, because the situation is very difficult. And we expect that Ukrainian Western partners will not only agree to help, as it is now, but there will be a clear time frame, and it will be the near future, and this will be exactly the help that Ukraine needs, "said Malyar.
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexei Danilov said that Ukraine needs 6 new battalion tactical groups with a total number of 25,000 fighters to liberate the occupied territories.
Bloomberg reported that Denmark and the Netherlands do not support granting Ukraine the status of a candidate country for accession to the European Union. According to the agency, Danish diplomats believe that Ukraine does not meet the criteria for stability of institutions of democracy, rule of law, human rights and protection of minorities. They believe that Kyiv will need to "fundamentally improve its legislative and institutional framework" in order to progress in all these areas.
Russian occupation forces are trying to avoid a direct confrontation with Ukrainian troops, with only one in ten soldiers ready. This is evidenced by a telephone conversation between the occupier and his wife, which was reportedly intercepted by the Security Service of Ukraine. "Thirty people from the whole battalion went into battle ... Who was wounded, who was 200th, who was 300th, who refused ... Only thirty people from the whole battalion. Thirty! Can you imagine? ” said the Russian. The SBU clarified that the battalion usually has from 300 to 900 servicemen, depending on the type of troops. "This explains why the Russian occupiers are less and less direct attack, and simply clean up Ukrainian settlements from afar with artillery, killing civilians," said intelligence officials.
As of the morning of June 14, Russia had lost about 32,500 of its troops in a full-scale war against Ukraine. 200 of them - for the last day. This was announced by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The estimated losses of the occupiers are as follows: tanks - 1,434 ( +2 ); armored combat vehicles - 3,503 (+11); artillery systems - 721 (+3); rocket-propelled grenade launchers - 229 (+3); air defense equipment - 97; aircraft - 213; helicopters - 179 (+1); drones of operational and tactical level - 585 (+3); automotive equipment and tank trucks - 2,473 (+13); cruise missiles - 125; ships, boats - 13; special equipment - 54. These data are not final: due to active hostilities, the calculation is complicated.
By one US military estimate, Ukraine has suffered up to 70,000 casualties (10,000 killed, 40,000-50,000 wounded, and about 10,000 prisoners). A survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology identified that 82 percent of Ukrainians living in Russian-controlled territories hold a negative attitude towards Russia, fueling the potential for partisan fighters behind Russians lines.